Premium Bond Winner ?

Section62

Dizzycap said:

 

...and decided to get interest on my money rather than nothing

All the best to those who hold PB and I wish you all well with all your winnings

Thank you.  I'm finishing 2024 enjoying a 30% tax-free income from my PB holding.  That's quite a bit more than normal, but even if I win £0 in the whole of 2025 I'll still be averaging well above what I'd get from any standard savings account.

Premium Bonds aren't for everyone, but once in a while you can get lucky. That is part of the fun  

eskbanker

Dizzycap said:

...a 10K holding that I've held for 4 years...

Did you see the post on the previous page highlighting that this statement conflicts with references to your holding in earlier posts?

ukbren said:

You said when you won that £50 in June this year that it wasn't bad for a £700 holding.  You've also said that you've held £2k for 34 years and bought £50 worth every month for four years (+£2,400-ish I suppose), and also £50/month for two years in a post on a different thread three months prior. None of this adds up to £10k...

Sg28

Dizzycap said:

Premium Bonds warning to anyone with less than £20k invested

As my win rate has been virtually zero, except for a single £50 win in March this year, on a 10K holding that I've held for 4 years, I've cashed in all but £1 and decided to get interest on my money rather than nothing

All the best to those who hold PB and I wish you all well with all your winnings

The odds of that are so incredible its hard to believe...

According to:
 https://premiumbondsprizes.com/detailed#10000

You have about a 45% chance of a prize each month. 

Meaning the chance of a single full year without a prize would be around 0.02%.

The chance of a consecutive 48 month run of not winning would be 0.000005%

I wont bother with 3 or 4 years....

eskbanker

Sg28 said:
The odds of that are so incredible its hard to believe...

According to:
 https://premiumbondsprizes.com/detailed#10000

You have about a 45% chance of a prize each month. 

Meaning the chance of a single full year without a prize would be around 0.02%.

While I agree with the overall sentiment, you're reading the wrong lines of those results, which state that the probability of a prize in any month is 36.5% and that of a blank year is 0.43%.

polymaff

RG2015 said:

Lady luck is always hard to fathom. I had a £10,000 holding for about 2 years and won £125 in that time. I then reduced it to £5k and won nothing for a year so reduced it to £1k. 

Needless to say I won nowt for 2 years. Then this October I bumped it up to £6k and won £50 this month.

I assumed it was from the new £5k holding, but no, it was on the £1,000 holding that had been there for the whole 5 years.

It is hard to believe that my new luck was nothing to do with increasing my holding from £1k to £6k.

I'm not sure that "Lady Luck" has anything to do with it - and if ever a quirk is identified, it will be something mundane in NS&I's software surrounding the random number generator.  NS&I have a long history of getting its software wrong.

They are not alone.

One financial institution is currently offering a download of up to 1 year's transactions - except that what it is actually offering is up to 365 days of transactions.

All software blunders are, in retrospect, mundane - and cheek-wringingly embarassing :<(

flaneurs_lobster

polymaff said:

One financial institution is currently offering a download of up to 1 year's transactions - except that what it is actually offering is up to 365 days of transactions.

OK, I'll bite.

What's the difference?

Section62

flaneurs_lobster said:

polymaff said:

One financial institution is currently offering a download of up to 1 year's transactions - except that what it is actually offering is up to 365 days of transactions.

OK, I'll bite.

What's the difference?

How it handles leap years? (or not)

jak22

No one person can be luckier than someone else other than over a period of time they randomly happen to receive more or fewer prizes, the RNG isn't related to website issues and again wouldn't favour one person over another, and it's unlikely to have gone several months without a win on FH over the last year or so.

What is real is the rate of return is now below ISAs and even normal fixed accounts. Some fixed ISAs taken now can continue to be funded in future tax years even if rates on new accounts drop - so perhaps now it is time to start thinking about moving from PBs.

polymaff

flaneurs_lobster said:

polymaff said:

One financial institution is currently offering a download of up to 1 year's transactions - except that what it is actually offering is up to 365 days of transactions.

OK, I'll bite.

What's the difference?

LEAP YEARS

RG2015

polymaff said:

RG2015 said:

Lady luck is always hard to fathom. I had a £10,000 holding for about 2 years and won £125 in that time. I then reduced it to £5k and won nothing for a year so reduced it to £1k. 

Needless to say I won nowt for 2 years. Then this October I bumped it up to £6k and won £50 this month.

I assumed it was from the new £5k holding, but no, it was on the £1,000 holding that had been there for the whole 5 years.

It is hard to believe that my new luck was nothing to do with increasing my holding from £1k to £6k.

I'm not sure that "Lady Luck" has anything to do with it - and if ever a quirk is identified, it will be something mundane in NS&I's software surrounding the random number generator.  NS&I have a long history of getting its software wrong.

polymaff 

An interesing hypothosis and as I see it there are two alternatives.

1. An outcome with the correct identification of the winning bond number.

2. An outcome that incorrectly identifies the winning bond number caused by a software error.

It is also possible that the identification of the winning bond number is viewed by NS&I as unimportant and hence not subject to rigourous software validation.

It is my choice what to believe irrespective of the truth which we will never know.