How much longer will this bear market go on for?

Sea_Shell

Albermarle said:

A relative of mine very recently ( last week )put their house up for sale in a Birmingham suburb. Within a couple of days many viewings arranged, and almost straightaway four offers, at or above the asking price from buyers with nothing to sell.
Sealed bids arranged and has sold for 6.5% above the asking price.

Recession, what recession? 

And how sustainable do you think that situation is?

Type_45

Albermarle said:

A relative of mine very recently ( last week )put their house up for sale in a Birmingham suburb. Within a couple of days many viewings arranged, and almost straightaway four offers, at or above the asking price from buyers with nothing to sell.
Sealed bids arranged and has sold for 6.5% above the asking price.

Recession, what recession? 

If this isn't indicative of a market top before a crash then I don't know what is.

Type_45

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

"Blackstone Prepares A Record $50 Billion To Snap Up Real Estate During The Coming Crash"
They know what's coming.

A property crash is something that hasn't been talked about much, but the rising cost of living, the squeezing of margins on businesses, and rapidly rising interest rates, is likely to see repossession rates go up and activity in the residential and commercial property markets stifled.

It also raises another issue: corporations buying up great swathes of residential stock and renting it back to us.

It's happening on both sides of The Pond.

Albermarle

Type_45 said:

Albermarle said:

A relative of mine very recently ( last week )put their house up for sale in a Birmingham suburb. Within a couple of days many viewings arranged, and almost straightaway four offers, at or above the asking price from buyers with nothing to sell.
Sealed bids arranged and has sold for 6.5% above the asking price.

Recession, what recession? 

If this isn't indicative of a market top before a crash then I don't know what is.

You might well be right, but it is interesting to note that all the doom and gloom generally has seemingly not yet hit the housing market. It seems there is still  a shortage of properties.

masonic

Albermarle said:

Type_45 said:

Albermarle said:

A relative of mine very recently ( last week )put their house up for sale in a Birmingham suburb. Within a couple of days many viewings arranged, and almost straightaway four offers, at or above the asking price from buyers with nothing to sell.
Sealed bids arranged and has sold for 6.5% above the asking price.

Recession, what recession? 

If this isn't indicative of a market top before a crash then I don't know what is.

You might well be right, but it is interesting to note that all the doom and gloom generally has seemingly not yet hit the housing market. It seems there is still  a shortage of properties.

The real hardship will be felt this coming winter.

Albermarle

masonic said:

Albermarle said:

Type_45 said:

Albermarle said:

A relative of mine very recently ( last week )put their house up for sale in a Birmingham suburb. Within a couple of days many viewings arranged, and almost straightaway four offers, at or above the asking price from buyers with nothing to sell.
Sealed bids arranged and has sold for 6.5% above the asking price.

Recession, what recession? 

If this isn't indicative of a market top before a crash then I don't know what is.

You might well be right, but it is interesting to note that all the doom and gloom generally has seemingly not yet hit the housing market. It seems there is still  a shortage of properties.

The real hardship will be felt this coming winter.

For many yes it will be very difficult, and most likely more Govt money will be needed to help.
What's not clear is if the better off types  will be affected enough to shy away from property buying, although some calming down of the housing market is inevitable.

Sea_Shell

Albermarle said:

masonic said:

Albermarle said:

Type_45 said:

Albermarle said:

A relative of mine very recently ( last week )put their house up for sale in a Birmingham suburb. Within a couple of days many viewings arranged, and almost straightaway four offers, at or above the asking price from buyers with nothing to sell.
Sealed bids arranged and has sold for 6.5% above the asking price.

Recession, what recession? 

If this isn't indicative of a market top before a crash then I don't know what is.

You might well be right, but it is interesting to note that all the doom and gloom generally has seemingly not yet hit the housing market. It seems there is still  a shortage of properties.

The real hardship will be felt this coming winter.

For many yes it will be very difficult, and most likely more Govt money will be needed to help.
What's not clear is if the better off types  will be affected enough to shy away from property buying, although some calming down of the housing market is inevitable.

I suppose it depends how you define this ...

?

Type_45

Albermarle said:

masonic said:

Albermarle said:

Type_45 said:

Albermarle said:

A relative of mine very recently ( last week )put their house up for sale in a Birmingham suburb. Within a couple of days many viewings arranged, and almost straightaway four offers, at or above the asking price from buyers with nothing to sell.
Sealed bids arranged and has sold for 6.5% above the asking price.

Recession, what recession? 

If this isn't indicative of a market top before a crash then I don't know what is.

You might well be right, but it is interesting to note that all the doom and gloom generally has seemingly not yet hit the housing market. It seems there is still  a shortage of properties.

The real hardship will be felt this coming winter.

For many yes it will be very difficult, and most likely more Govt money will be needed to help.
What's not clear is if the better off types  will be affected enough to shy away from property buying, although some calming down of the housing market is inevitable.

It's not the government's money. It's our money and we will be picking up the tab long after the current government have retired with their gold-plated pensions.

We are at the point we are due to a series of policy errors from governments and central banks.

"The better off types" are next in line. They will be hollowed out eventually.

masonic

Albermarle said:

masonic said:

Albermarle said:

Type_45 said:

Albermarle said:

A relative of mine very recently ( last week )put their house up for sale in a Birmingham suburb. Within a couple of days many viewings arranged, and almost straightaway four offers, at or above the asking price from buyers with nothing to sell.
Sealed bids arranged and has sold for 6.5% above the asking price.

Recession, what recession? 

If this isn't indicative of a market top before a crash then I don't know what is.

You might well be right, but it is interesting to note that all the doom and gloom generally has seemingly not yet hit the housing market. It seems there is still  a shortage of properties.

The real hardship will be felt this coming winter.

For many yes it will be very difficult, and most likely more Govt money will be needed to help.
What's not clear is if the better off types  will be affected enough to shy away from property buying, although some calming down of the housing market is inevitable.

I'm thinking more of the people struggling with mortgages, and those whose jobs may be put at risk in the event of a recession caused by the collective belt-tightening. It will obviously take time for the rate hikes to feed into people's monthly repayments due to the prevalence of fixed rate mortgage deals, but I would have thought there would be enough people who have been well off enough to afford to take their first steps onto the property ladder, but not wealthy enough to deal with the multiple factors increasing their bills. It may be that certain parts of the property market suffer, while other parts are propped up by the wealthy who can take the economic headwinds in their stride. Signs that prices are heading downward can become a self-fulfilling prophesy as people become reluctant to buy in a falling market with the risk of slipping into negative equity.

Type_45

"Terrible PMI data today for the US economy - Purchasing Managers Index.

Except for the Spring 2020 lockdowns, Composite PMI (Manufacturing + Services) hasn't been below 50 since 2009.

Now firmly in contraction/recession territory - and America is last among G-20 countries."