How much longer will this bear market go on for?

Type_45

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

A summer rally, and even a huge melt up, are both in play in the next few months.

You mean we'll have to throw out "sell in May and go away" as well as "Fridays are usually a bad day for markets"?

A melt up would probably follow a reversal of monetary policy, which could well happen in 2023, but I have my doubts we'll see interest rates falling before then.

We'll find out soon enough.  When it's confirmed that America is in a recession, and it soon will be, the Fed will be forced to cut rates.

Raising rates chokes the economy.  They won't want to choke the economy during a recession.

masonic

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

A summer rally, and even a huge melt up, are both in play in the next few months.

You mean we'll have to throw out "sell in May and go away" as well as "Fridays are usually a bad day for markets"?

A melt up would probably follow a reversal of monetary policy, which could well happen in 2023, but I have my doubts we'll see interest rates falling before then.

We'll find out soon enough.  When it's confirmed that America is in a recession, and it soon will be, the Fed will be forced to cut rates.

Raising rates chokes the economy.  They won't want to choke the economy during a recession.

There seems to be some acceptance that a technical recession may result from this intervention. The key figure to watch is unemployment. A little collateral damage to GDP will be tolerated, but too many people out of work will not.

Type_45

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

A summer rally, and even a huge melt up, are both in play in the next few months.

You mean we'll have to throw out "sell in May and go away" as well as "Fridays are usually a bad day for markets"?

A melt up would probably follow a reversal of monetary policy, which could well happen in 2023, but I have my doubts we'll see interest rates falling before then.

We'll find out soon enough.  When it's confirmed that America is in a recession, and it soon will be, the Fed will be forced to cut rates.

Raising rates chokes the economy.  They won't want to choke the economy during a recession.

There seems to be some acceptance that a technical recession may result from this intervention. The key figure to watch is unemployment. A little collateral damage to GDP will be tolerated, but too many people out of work will not.

Unemployment is a lagging indicator of a recession.  By that stage they will be deep in a recession.

The recession has already begun.  It just hasn't been anointed yet.

Albermarle

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

A summer rally, and even a huge melt up, are both in play in the next few months.

You mean we'll have to throw out "sell in May and go away" as well as "Fridays are usually a bad day for markets"?

A melt up would probably follow a reversal of monetary policy, which could well happen in 2023, but I have my doubts we'll see interest rates falling before then.

We'll find out soon enough.  When it's confirmed that America is in a recession, and it soon will be, the Fed will be forced to cut rates.

Raising rates chokes the economy.  They won't want to choke the economy during a recession.

There seems to be some acceptance that a technical recession may result from this intervention. The key figure to watch is unemployment. A little collateral damage to GDP will be tolerated, but too many people out of work will not.

Unemployment is a lagging indicator of a recession.  By that stage they will be deep in a recession.

The recession has already begun.  It just hasn't been anointed yet.

It is an an unusual start to a recession in that case . Low unemployment and a high vacancy rate still persisting. Plus house prices still going up.
Many conflicting signals.

masonic

Type_45 said:

The recession has already begun.  It just hasn't been anointed yet.

Like the 80% fall in stockmarkets?

As stated above, the Fed is hunkering down for a recession. It won't change monetary policy on that basis. A reversal will come if it becomes a deep recession, which is possible, but not on your timetable.

Type_45

"Blackstone Prepares A Record $50 Billion To Snap Up Real Estate During The Coming Crash"


They know what's coming.

Millyonare

Malthusian said:

Pretending dividends don't exist makes exactly as much sense as pretending the capital doesn't exist and saying "I invested in the FTSE 100 last year and have received dividends of 3%, therefore I have made a 97% loss".

A bear market is (generally accepted to be) a fall of more than 20%. An investment in the FTSE 100 is up 144% since 1999. 144 > -20.

As above, a ~0% rise in an index in 23 years is not a bear market. It is now being called a Jurassic market. The FTSE100 is beyond the bear.

wmb194

Millyonare said:

Malthusian said:

Pretending dividends don't exist makes exactly as much sense as pretending the capital doesn't exist and saying "I invested in the FTSE 100 last year and have received dividends of 3%, therefore I have made a 97% loss".

A bear market is (generally accepted to be) a fall of more than 20%. An investment in the FTSE 100 is up 144% since 1999. 144 > -20.

As above, a ~0% rise in an index in 23 years is not a bear market. It is now being called a Jurassic market. The FTSE100 is beyond the bear.

You need to bear in mind that at the end of 1999 it was the height of the TMT stockmarket bubble. Particularly for the FTSE100, you also need to consider dividends. You mustn't ignore them.

masonic

Type_45 said:

"Blackstone Prepares A Record $50 Billion To Snap Up Real Estate During The Coming Crash"
They know what's coming.

A property crash is something that hasn't been talked about much, but the rising cost of living, the squeezing of margins on businesses, and rapidly rising interest rates, is likely to see repossession rates go up and activity in the residential and commercial property markets stifled.

Albermarle

A relative of mine very recently ( last week )put their house up for sale in a Birmingham suburb. Within a couple of days many viewings arranged, and almost straightaway four offers, at or above the asking price from buyers with nothing to sell.
Sealed bids arranged and has sold for 6.5% above the asking price.

Recession, what recession?