How much longer will this bear market go on for?

Malthusian

Millyonare said:

The FTSE 100 has been in a bear market since the end of the last century.

That's not what a bear market means. Whether something is in a bear market or not depends on total return. Price return is meaningless except to people who like to watch lines on a screen to make themselves feel bad.

dunstonh

Millyonare said:

The FTSE 100 has been in a bear market since the end of the last century. In real terms, the index has plummeted around -35% between 1999 and 2022. Not all stockmarkets go up.

Context is needed.  The FTSE100 is heavily weighted towards value companies paying higher dividends.  It is light in growth companies.    The index value excludes dividends.   

The chart below shows a FTSE100 tracker over the period you mention.  The blue line is the value without dividends.   It is up just 24.47%.    The red line is the total return including dividends reinvested.  It is up 144.05%.



Some markets are high in growth companies and low in value companies.   So, the index value for those is more important to the total return.

Millyonare

The FTSE100 peaked at 6930 in 1999 and is struggling to rise above 7000 in 2022, a quarter of a century later. Adjusted for inflation, it Malthusian said:

Millyonare said:

The FTSE 100 has been in a bear market since the end of the last century.

That's not what a bear market means. Whether something is in a bear market or not depends on total return. Price return is meaningless except to people who like to watch lines on a screen to make themselves feel bad.

An index that was at 6930 in 1999, and sits around 7230 in 2022, unmoved in a quarter of a century, down -35% in real terms, is a bear market. Some even call the FTSE100 a Jurassic dinosaur market, because of all the old no-growth / low-growth companies in it. Nikkei 225 in Japan is another longterm bear stockmarket, that went nowhere for 30 years.

shortseller09

The next major move either way should come next week with the big US tech companies (Apple, Amazon, Google etc) announcing Q2 earnings

InvesterJones

shortseller09 said:

The next major move either way should come next week with the big US tech companies (Apple, Amazon, Google etc) announcing Q2 earnings

We'll see - Q2 might be too soon to rule out recession (or not) so we could be none the wiser.

Prism

Millyonare said:

The FTSE100 peaked at 6930 in 1999 and is struggling to rise above 7000 in 2022, a quarter of a century later. Adjusted for inflation, it Malthusian said:

Millyonare said:

The FTSE 100 has been in a bear market since the end of the last century.

That's not what a bear market means. Whether something is in a bear market or not depends on total return. Price return is meaningless except to people who like to watch lines on a screen to make themselves feel bad.

An index that was at 6930 in 1999, and sits around 7230 in 2022, unmoved in a quarter of a century, down -35% in real terms, is a bear market. Some even call the FTSE100 a Jurassic dinosaur market, because of all the old no-growth / low-growth companies in it. Nikkei 225 in Japan is another longterm bear stockmarket, that went nowhere for 30 years.

Nobody really cares what happens to the index as long as they make some return out of it. The FTSE 100 has not been the best performing index for the last 10 years or so but it has still generated returns.

Malthusian

Pretending dividends don't exist makes exactly as much sense as pretending the capital doesn't exist and saying "I invested in the FTSE 100 last year and have received dividends of 3%, therefore I have made a 97% loss".

A bear market is (generally accepted to be) a fall of more than 20%. An investment in the FTSE 100 is up 144% since 1999. 144 > -20.

LHW99

Wait until every commentator in the popular media is predicting armageddon and the end of the investing universe and its probably about the right time to jump in and buy

Type_45

InvesterJones said:

shortseller09 said:

The next major move either way should come next week with the big US tech companies (Apple, Amazon, Google etc) announcing Q2 earnings

We'll see - Q2 might be too soon to rule out recession (or not) so we could be none the wiser.

We are already in a recession. 

Prism

Type_45 said:

InvesterJones said:

shortseller09 said:

The next major move either way should come next week with the big US tech companies (Apple, Amazon, Google etc) announcing Q2 earnings

We'll see - Q2 might be too soon to rule out recession (or not) so we could be none the wiser.

We are already in a recession. 

well that is clearly untrue as GDP is growing