How much longer will this bear market go on for?

anonmoose

That's what I am thinking Albermarle and therefore don't think I will miss out by hanging fire for now.

InvesterJones

anonmoose said:

Most analysts sound bearish but the market seems to be doing the opposite. It just doesn't add up to me and I am still DCA for my regular monthly amounts but won't be touching my cash pot at the moment.

I just see more downside risk than upside. What do others think?  

Yeah same - I'm more confused about the rally but I guess it's caused by investors FOMO the bottom. One day, the rally will stick and it really will be the bottom, but no way of knowing without hindsight.

Valuations of, oddly enough, value stocks still seem pretty high to me - it's like lots of people jumped from growth to value due to the interest rate hikes, but then these seem, generally, to be the ones in line for earnings fall if there's recession. So maybe there'll just be another jump back to growth to put a floor under it.

Adyinvestment

A conspiracy story that I am inclined to believe has some truth is that the FED and European central banks are buying up lots of their debt behind the scenes, effectively quantitative easing, keeping the 10yr yield stable and low enough to force money back into the stock market...

InvesterJones

Adyinvestment said:

A conspiracy story that I am inclined to believe has some truth is that the FED and European central banks are buying up lots of their debt behind the scenes, effectively quantitative easing, keeping the 10yr yield stable and low enough to force money back into the stock market...

Well we'd see if they did that, and as of 12th July, they're not.

Adyinvestment

InvesterJones said:

Well we'd see if they did that, and as of 12th July, they're not.

How would you see that? they are not advertising it.

Also the ECB is implementing its "new debt anti-fragmentation tool", but what this is exactly seems to be a secret.

The US 10 yr yield was spiking up day after day and then suddenly dropped and stabilised at exactly the same time the stock market started recovering...

Could be rubbish, you make your own conclusions.

InvesterJones

Adyinvestment said:

InvesterJones said:

Well we'd see if they did that, and as of 12th July, they're not.

How would you see that?

The Fed publish their balance sheet

Adyinvestment

InvesterJones said:

The Fed publish their balance sheet

I know, but it wouldn't be much of a conspiracy theory if they came out and said "hey all look what we are doing"

They also have their own trading desk but I bet you can't find anywhere what they do with it...

Now I am starting to sound like Type_45 lol

Type_45

A summer rally, and even a huge melt up, are both in play in the next few months.

InvesterJones

Adyinvestment said:

InvesterJones said:

The Fed publish their balance sheet

I know, but it wouldn't be much of a conspiracy theory if they came out and said "hey all look what we are doing"

True, but in this case they don't have to say what they're doing, it's there on the balance sheet - which is independently audited.

masonic

Type_45 said:

A summer rally, and even a huge melt up, are both in play in the next few months.

You mean we'll have to throw out "sell in May and go away" as well as "Fridays are usually a bad day for markets"?

A melt up would probably follow a reversal of monetary policy, which could well happen in 2023, but I have my doubts we'll see interest rates falling before then.