How much longer will this bear market go on for?

barnstar2077

Adyinvestment said:

I do wish certain posters would stop posting as if their outlandish theories were set in stone and guaranteed to happen.

At least post accepting your opinions are just that...your opinions. I believe the way some posts are worded could be dangerous to the more impressionable reader, especially when there are clearly many worried people on the forums lately.

This is what worries me about many of the crypto currency posts I see.  Someone thinking of investing for the first time could easily come to this forum and think crypto was in the same class as ISAs or pensions etc.

Type_45

Recession averted!  Why?
Because the Orwellian White House has redefined what a recession is:

Hexane

barnstar2077 said:

Adyinvestment said:

I do wish certain posters would stop posting as if their outlandish theories were set in stone and guaranteed to happen.

At least post accepting your opinions are just that...your opinions. I believe the way some posts are worded could be dangerous to the more impressionable reader, especially when there are clearly many worried people on the forums lately.

This is what worries me about many of the crypto currency posts I see.  Someone thinking of investing for the first time could easily come to this forum and think crypto was in the same class as ISAs or pensions etc.

That was my first thought when I saw this comment too.

"could be dangerous to the more impressionable reader" was certainly true of the crypto industry posts that were seen on this forum a year or so ago, claiming that Bitcoin would definitely reach $100,000 "within a few months".

Actually, someone who had bought Bitcoin at $69,000 and then sold it when it briefly dipped below $20,000 would have almost achieved Type_45's legendary "80% fall in value"

renegade1

  HisHexane said:

barnstar2077 said:

Adyinvestment said:

I do wish certain posters would stop posting as if their outlandish theories were set in stone and guaranteed to happen.

At least post accepting your opinions are just that...your opinions. I believe the way some posts are worded could be dangerous to the more impressionable reader, especially when there are clearly many worried people on the forums lately.

This is what worries me about many of the crypto currency posts I see.  Someone thinking of investing for the first time could easily come to this forum and think crypto was in the same class as ISAs or pensions etc.

That was my first thought when I saw this comment too.

"could be dangerous to the more impressionable reader" was certainly true of the crypto industry posts that were seen on this forum a year or so ago, claiming that Bitcoin would definitely reach $100,000 "within a few months".

Actually, someone who had bought Bitcoin at $69,000 and then sold it when it briefly dipped below $20,000 would have almost achieved Type_45's legendary "80% fall in value"

I wouldn't take anything Type_45 says at face value. He has a portfolio that benefits the more people sell and therefore instilling panic and worry in others is his game. There will be no 80% drop.

MiserlyMartin

TonyTeacake said:

I've said it all along and still stick to what I say, this housing market crash will be the most disastrous on record.

I was talking about rampant inflation on here 6 months ago and how it will be disastrous to our economy, and most people were dismissing it. Now we are starting to see the damage it is causing. This inflation monster is only going to get much worse and will be with us for the rest of this decade. All of this money printed during the pandemic created a false economy. With the cost of living crisis we are going to see businesses go the wall, it's already started and unfortunately many people are going to lose their jobs.

National house prices were up for June but not for every region. NW down 0.4%, NE down 0.8% and London down 1.1%. This is the start of the downturn and in a few months every region will be down and this will continue for the next 2-3 years until we see the bottom. We will experience the biggest crash on record, expect to see up to 50% off in some areas.  The property market has had a good run for 2 years but now that is over.  It is also game over for most BTL.



Regional map for June



Regional map for July up to now.



If you look historically at these charts over the last 2 years none of these were red.


A lot of people are saying this is different to 2008? I agree this is much worse. Only this time around we have had a global pandemic, 100s of billions of money printed for QE, rampant inflation, the highest records recorded for personal debts, a war and supply chain problems. This will be a lot worse than 2008, the demand for buying houses will just evaporate.

To prove it is all pent-up demand in the last year here are true sales figures for UK properties year by year.
2018 = 1,190,070
2019 = 1,177,260
2020 = 1,036,170
2021 = 1,479,860
This is why they saying there is a shortage of properties, but really it is only pent-up demand created by the pandemic.

Unfortunately, the BOE and the Tories are behind the curve with inflation and interest rates need to be much higher. They are playing a dangerous game trying to protect the housing market with little interest rate hikes, this will end up in disaster because the economy will collapse. If you believe Bailey and his inflation targets for 2% in the next 2 years, you are dreaming. This is the same man who said last year that high inflation is transitory (short lived), now we all know that is not true and this inflation monster is entrenched into our economy.

Come winter time we are going to see the major cracks in our economy really unfold.

While agree with much of what you say, which prices stats are you using for those maps? Really the only reliable stats are the land registry ones

TonyTeacake

I agree the land registry is the most reliable source. These are from rightmove and based on asking prices.

Here is another article about big price drops in Manchester.

Aross the regions 10 boroughs there are certain areas where the average house price has dropped by more than £90,000 this year, in comparison to the price recorded by Rightmove back in December 2021.

Here is the link for the full article.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/property/areas-greater-manchester-house-prices-23918399.amp

MK62

That article is very selective........quoting average asking prices in certain areas of each borough.......but that sampling could be very small, and depends on the houses actually on the market. The article doesn't mention prices in all the other areas of each borough or what the average price has done in each borough overall - there have always been large fluctuations in localised areas, due to the actual houses on sale.

Looking at the largest drop in the article, the £90k+ drop in Broadheath, Altrincham, there are currently just 23 properties for sale on Rightmove, and they sold just 48 in the last year.

This is what the Rightmove site says today about house prices in Broadheath.......

House Prices in Broadheath

Properties in Broadheath had an overall average price of £269,665 over the last year.

The majority of sales in Broadheath during the last year were semi-detached properties, selling for an average price of £299,989. Terraced properties sold for an average of £294,364, with flats fetching £185,846.

Overall, sold prices in Broadheath over the last year were 18% up on the previous year and 9% down on the 2018 peak of £295,750.

Articles such as the one quoted, start with a headline, and then present (highly selective) data to support it.......you really have to take a more measured view........it's a bit like saying the price of cheese has fallen in the last year so that indicates food is now cheaper than last year......

Type_45

MK62 said:

That article is very selective........quoting average asking prices in certain areas of each borough.......but that sampling could be very small, and depends on the houses actually on the market. The article doesn't mention prices in all the other areas of each borough or what the average price has done in each borough overall - there have always been large fluctuations in localised areas, due to the actual houses on sale.

Looking at the largest drop in the article, the £90k+ drop in Broadheath, Altrincham, there are currently just 23 properties for sale on Rightmove, and they sold just 48 in the last year.

This is what the Rightmove site says today about house prices in Broadheath.......

House Prices in Broadheath

Properties in Broadheath had an overall average price of £269,665 over the last year.

The majority of sales in Broadheath during the last year were semi-detached properties, selling for an average price of £299,989. Terraced properties sold for an average of £294,364, with flats fetching £185,846.

Overall, sold prices in Broadheath over the last year were 18% up on the previous year and 9% down on the 2018 peak of £295,750.

Articles such as the one quoted, start with a headline, and then present (highly selective) data to support it.......you really have to take a more measured view........it's a bit like saying the price of cheese has fallen in the last year so that indicates food is now cheaper than last year......

I've no idea what the point is you are trying to make.  Could you sum it up for us?

MK62

Type_45 said:

MK62 said:

That article is very selective........quoting average asking prices in certain areas of each borough.......but that sampling could be very small, and depends on the houses actually on the market. The article doesn't mention prices in all the other areas of each borough or what the average price has done in each borough overall - there have always been large fluctuations in localised areas, due to the actual houses on sale.

Looking at the largest drop in the article, the £90k+ drop in Broadheath, Altrincham, there are currently just 23 properties for sale on Rightmove, and they sold just 48 in the last year.

This is what the Rightmove site says today about house prices in Broadheath.......

House Prices in Broadheath

Properties in Broadheath had an overall average price of £269,665 over the last year.

The majority of sales in Broadheath during the last year were semi-detached properties, selling for an average price of £299,989. Terraced properties sold for an average of £294,364, with flats fetching £185,846.

Overall, sold prices in Broadheath over the last year were 18% up on the previous year and 9% down on the 2018 peak of £295,750.

Articles such as the one quoted, start with a headline, and then present (highly selective) data to support it.......you really have to take a more measured view........it's a bit like saying the price of cheese has fallen in the last year so that indicates food is now cheaper than last year......

I've no idea what the point is you are trying to make.  Could you sum it up for us?

Sure.....the article is rubbish...

Type_45

renegade1 said:

  HisHexane said:

barnstar2077 said:

Adyinvestment said:

I do wish certain posters would stop posting as if their outlandish theories were set in stone and guaranteed to happen.

At least post accepting your opinions are just that...your opinions. I believe the way some posts are worded could be dangerous to the more impressionable reader, especially when there are clearly many worried people on the forums lately.

This is what worries me about many of the crypto currency posts I see.  Someone thinking of investing for the first time could easily come to this forum and think crypto was in the same class as ISAs or pensions etc.

That was my first thought when I saw this comment too.

"could be dangerous to the more impressionable reader" was certainly true of the crypto industry posts that were seen on this forum a year or so ago, claiming that Bitcoin would definitely reach $100,000 "within a few months".

Actually, someone who had bought Bitcoin at $69,000 and then sold it when it briefly dipped below $20,000 would have almost achieved Type_45's legendary "80% fall in value"

I wouldn't take anything Type_45 says at face value. He has a portfolio that benefits the more people sell and therefore instilling panic and worry in others is his game. There will be no 80% drop.

What's my portfolio?