How much longer will this bear market go on for?

masonic

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

A deflationary crash this autumn?  

Could be slow legs down.  Could be crashy.

The FOMC seems to be suggesting a pause in monetary tightening in September. Any move towards a deflationary environment would be expected to be short lived, and could lead to euphoria in markets. I think it is unlilkely we'll see any more than disinflation, very unlikely it will be enough to bring inflation down even to the target.

Good to see you've pivoted from rising inflation being crashy to falling inflation being crashy. I guess if all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

So I was correct about the US recession, and correct about the pivot. 

Back at the beginning of the year it was widely predicted that the monetary tightening would lead to a mild technical recession and that is exactly what has happened. If you predicted that also, then good for you, but my recollection was you were predicting severe economic collapse, which is not what has happened. There has been forward guidance about a pause in monetary tightening since around March/April time. You predicted they'd have to go into reverse and crash interest rates / start printing money, which is not what is being planned, though it remains to see what actually happens. I am doubtful interest rates will fall or QE will be resumed this year, but if that's still your prediction, let's note it beside the 80% crash in 2022 prediction.

Adyinvestment

Type_45 said:

So I was correct about the US recession, and correct about the pivot. 

Even a stopped analogue clock is right twice a day.

Type_45

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

A deflationary crash this autumn?  

Could be slow legs down.  Could be crashy.

The FOMC seems to be suggesting a pause in monetary tightening in September. Any move towards a deflationary environment would be expected to be short lived, and could lead to euphoria in markets. I think it is unlilkely we'll see any more than disinflation, very unlikely it will be enough to bring inflation down even to the target.

Good to see you've pivoted from rising inflation being crashy to falling inflation being crashy. I guess if all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

So I was correct about the US recession, and correct about the pivot. 

Back at the beginning of the year it was widely predicted that the monetary tightening would lead to a mild technical recession and that is exactly what has happened. If you predicted that also, then good for you, but my recollection was you were predicting severe economic collapse, which is not what has happened. There has been forward guidance about a pause in monetary tightening since around March/April time. You predicted they'd have to go into reverse and crash interest rates / start printing money, which is not what is being planned, though it remains to see what actually happens. I am doubtful interest rates will fall or QE will be resumed this year, but if that's still your prediction, let's note it beside the 80% crash in 2022 prediction.

I also predicted that as each of my predictions come true it will be met with "we all knew that would happen".

The global financial bust that we are going to see will have been "widely predicted" too.

It wasn't. But that's how it will be talked about.

Zola.

Do you really think you are the only one to have thought that we would have global financial issues after shutting the global economy down for over a year, crippling supply chains, whilst printing crazy amounts of money.... 

really?

InvesterJones

Type_45 said:

I also predicted that as each of my predictions come true it will be met with "we all knew that would happen".

Which of your crash predictions have come true so far?

masonic

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

A deflationary crash this autumn?  

Could be slow legs down.  Could be crashy.

The FOMC seems to be suggesting a pause in monetary tightening in September. Any move towards a deflationary environment would be expected to be short lived, and could lead to euphoria in markets. I think it is unlilkely we'll see any more than disinflation, very unlikely it will be enough to bring inflation down even to the target.

Good to see you've pivoted from rising inflation being crashy to falling inflation being crashy. I guess if all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

So I was correct about the US recession, and correct about the pivot. 

Back at the beginning of the year it was widely predicted that the monetary tightening would lead to a mild technical recession and that is exactly what has happened. If you predicted that also, then good for you, but my recollection was you were predicting severe economic collapse, which is not what has happened. There has been forward guidance about a pause in monetary tightening since around March/April time. You predicted they'd have to go into reverse and crash interest rates / start printing money, which is not what is being planned, though it remains to see what actually happens. I am doubtful interest rates will fall or QE will be resumed this year, but if that's still your prediction, let's note it beside the 80% crash in 2022 prediction.

I also predicted that as each of my predictions come true it will be met with "we all knew that would happen".

Again, that's a prediction that hasn't happened. Taking the two predictions we've just discussed, something other than what you predicted happened, and then you claimed that's what you knew would happen. You changing your tune about what you predicted is different than others changing their view on what was expected.

mild technical recession <> severe economic collapse

pausing interest rate hikes and QT <> interest rate collapse + mass QE

brief period in bear market territory <> 80% crash

Type_45 said:

The global financial bust that we are going to see will have been "widely predicted" too.

It wasn't. But that's how it will be talked about.

There's still time for your global financial bust to happen before the end of the year. Bookmark this post. If markets collapse 80% (from early Jan high, or any subsequent high) this year, and I claim that it was widely predicted or don't give you credit for getting it right, feel free to beat me with it. But if you get it wrong, be prepared to be called out on it.

Type_45

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

A deflationary crash this autumn?  

Could be slow legs down.  Could be crashy.

The FOMC seems to be suggesting a pause in monetary tightening in September. Any move towards a deflationary environment would be expected to be short lived, and could lead to euphoria in markets. I think it is unlilkely we'll see any more than disinflation, very unlikely it will be enough to bring inflation down even to the target.

Good to see you've pivoted from rising inflation being crashy to falling inflation being crashy. I guess if all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

So I was correct about the US recession, and correct about the pivot. 

Back at the beginning of the year it was widely predicted that the monetary tightening would lead to a mild technical recession and that is exactly what has happened. If you predicted that also, then good for you, but my recollection was you were predicting severe economic collapse, which is not what has happened. There has been forward guidance about a pause in monetary tightening since around March/April time. You predicted they'd have to go into reverse and crash interest rates / start printing money, which is not what is being planned, though it remains to see what actually happens. I am doubtful interest rates will fall or QE will be resumed this year, but if that's still your prediction, let's note it beside the 80% crash in 2022 prediction.

I also predicted that as each of my predictions come true it will be met with "we all knew that would happen".

Again, that's a prediction that hasn't happened. Taking the two predictions we've just discussed, something other than what you predicted happened, and then you claimed that's what you knew would happen. You changing your tune about what you predicted is different than others changing their view on what was expected.

mild technical recession <> severe economic collapse

pausing interest rate hikes and QT <> interest rate collapse + mass QE

brief period in bear market territory <> 80% crash

Type_45 said:

The global financial bust that we are going to see will have been "widely predicted" too.

It wasn't. But that's how it will be talked about.

There's still time for your global financial bust to happen before the end of the year. Bookmark this post. If markets collapse 80% (from early Jan high, or any subsequent high) this year, and I claim that it was widely predicted or don't give you credit for getting it right, feel free to beat me with it. But if you get it wrong, be prepared to be called out on it.

They don't have a choice but to lower rates and print money.

If they tighten into a recession, as they are doing, they will collapse the economy.

They should have tightened last year. Or even in 2020. 

They need to print money right now, not tighten. They are committing a policy mistake which they will soon be forced to reverse. 

This will inflate asset prices. And then it will all come crashing down. 

Linton

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

A deflationary crash this autumn?  

Could be slow legs down.  Could be crashy.

The FOMC seems to be suggesting a pause in monetary tightening in September. Any move towards a deflationary environment would be expected to be short lived, and could lead to euphoria in markets. I think it is unlilkely we'll see any more than disinflation, very unlikely it will be enough to bring inflation down even to the target.

Good to see you've pivoted from rising inflation being crashy to falling inflation being crashy. I guess if all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

So I was correct about the US recession, and correct about the pivot. 

Back at the beginning of the year it was widely predicted that the monetary tightening would lead to a mild technical recession and that is exactly what has happened. If you predicted that also, then good for you, but my recollection was you were predicting severe economic collapse, which is not what has happened. There has been forward guidance about a pause in monetary tightening since around March/April time. You predicted they'd have to go into reverse and crash interest rates / start printing money, which is not what is being planned, though it remains to see what actually happens. I am doubtful interest rates will fall or QE will be resumed this year, but if that's still your prediction, let's note it beside the 80% crash in 2022 prediction.

I also predicted that as each of my predictions come true it will be met with "we all knew that would happen".

Again, that's a prediction that hasn't happened. Taking the two predictions we've just discussed, something other than what you predicted happened, and then you claimed that's what you knew would happen. You changing your tune about what you predicted is different than others changing their view on what was expected.

mild technical recession <> severe economic collapse

pausing interest rate hikes and QT <> interest rate collapse + mass QE

brief period in bear market territory <> 80% crash

Type_45 said:

The global financial bust that we are going to see will have been "widely predicted" too.

It wasn't. But that's how it will be talked about.

There's still time for your global financial bust to happen before the end of the year. Bookmark this post. If markets collapse 80% (from early Jan high, or any subsequent high) this year, and I claim that it was widely predicted or don't give you credit for getting it right, feel free to beat me with it. But if you get it wrong, be prepared to be called out on it.

They don't have a choice but to lower rates and print money.

If they tighten into a recession, as they are doing, they will collapse the economy.

They should have tightened last year. Or even in 2020. 

They need to print money right now, not tighten. They are committing a policy mistake which they will soon be forced to reverse. 

This will inflate asset prices. And then it will all come crashing down. 

That is all your opinions and predictions of the future.  The financial authorities and politicans have a wide choice of options.  And of course events are likely to happen that make the situation very different - did you predict Ukraine and the resultant rise in gas prices? Perhaps a smidgeon of humility to accept that you could possibly be wrong might be appropriate.

masonic

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

A deflationary crash this autumn?  

Could be slow legs down.  Could be crashy.

The FOMC seems to be suggesting a pause in monetary tightening in September. Any move towards a deflationary environment would be expected to be short lived, and could lead to euphoria in markets. I think it is unlilkely we'll see any more than disinflation, very unlikely it will be enough to bring inflation down even to the target.

Good to see you've pivoted from rising inflation being crashy to falling inflation being crashy. I guess if all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

So I was correct about the US recession, and correct about the pivot. 

Back at the beginning of the year it was widely predicted that the monetary tightening would lead to a mild technical recession and that is exactly what has happened. If you predicted that also, then good for you, but my recollection was you were predicting severe economic collapse, which is not what has happened. There has been forward guidance about a pause in monetary tightening since around March/April time. You predicted they'd have to go into reverse and crash interest rates / start printing money, which is not what is being planned, though it remains to see what actually happens. I am doubtful interest rates will fall or QE will be resumed this year, but if that's still your prediction, let's note it beside the 80% crash in 2022 prediction.

I also predicted that as each of my predictions come true it will be met with "we all knew that would happen".

Again, that's a prediction that hasn't happened. Taking the two predictions we've just discussed, something other than what you predicted happened, and then you claimed that's what you knew would happen. You changing your tune about what you predicted is different than others changing their view on what was expected.

mild technical recession <> severe economic collapse

pausing interest rate hikes and QT <> interest rate collapse + mass QE

brief period in bear market territory <> 80% crash

Type_45 said:

The global financial bust that we are going to see will have been "widely predicted" too.

It wasn't. But that's how it will be talked about.

There's still time for your global financial bust to happen before the end of the year. Bookmark this post. If markets collapse 80% (from early Jan high, or any subsequent high) this year, and I claim that it was widely predicted or don't give you credit for getting it right, feel free to beat me with it. But if you get it wrong, be prepared to be called out on it.

They don't have a choice but to lower rates and print money.

If they tighten into a recession, as they are doing, they will collapse the economy.

They should have tightened last year. Or even in 2020. 

They need to print money right now, not tighten. They are committing a policy mistake which they will soon be forced to reverse. 

This will inflate asset prices. And then it will all come crashing down. 

They really had no choice but to wait until the economy was operating normally before tightening. They perhaps had a few months where they dithered before being forced into action by a desire to appear to be acting against inflation. My view has always been that they are using inflation as a scapegoat and most of the price rises they are fighting cannot be brought under control by monetary policy. Arguably they are seeking to prevent a wage-price spiral by putting financial pressure on employers. They took a bit of a gamble, but the economy has turned out to be sufficiently resilient not to be significantly wounded. A pause in September may avert a reversal in 2023, although it looks like inflation will support rates at current levels for the foreseeable.

The real policy error was made during the 2010s. Austerity, then the settling in to a supposed new paradigm of loose monetary policy and low inflation.

Adyinvestment

Type_45 said:

They don't have a choice but to lower rates and print money.

If they tighten into a recession, as they are doing, they will collapse the economy.

They should have tightened last year. Or even in 2020. 

They need to print money right now, not tighten. They are committing a policy mistake which they will soon be forced to reverse. 

This will inflate asset prices. And then it will all come crashing down. 

What you really are saying is that all your earlier 80% crash doomsday scenarios are not playing out, so you are changing your tune to make out you always knew what was going to happen,

"And then it will all come crashing down."   Care to put a timeframe on this, or is it just some time in the future?