How much longer will this bear market go on for?

Type_45

Linton said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

A deflationary crash this autumn?  

Could be slow legs down.  Could be crashy.

The FOMC seems to be suggesting a pause in monetary tightening in September. Any move towards a deflationary environment would be expected to be short lived, and could lead to euphoria in markets. I think it is unlilkely we'll see any more than disinflation, very unlikely it will be enough to bring inflation down even to the target.

Good to see you've pivoted from rising inflation being crashy to falling inflation being crashy. I guess if all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

So I was correct about the US recession, and correct about the pivot. 

Back at the beginning of the year it was widely predicted that the monetary tightening would lead to a mild technical recession and that is exactly what has happened. If you predicted that also, then good for you, but my recollection was you were predicting severe economic collapse, which is not what has happened. There has been forward guidance about a pause in monetary tightening since around March/April time. You predicted they'd have to go into reverse and crash interest rates / start printing money, which is not what is being planned, though it remains to see what actually happens. I am doubtful interest rates will fall or QE will be resumed this year, but if that's still your prediction, let's note it beside the 80% crash in 2022 prediction.

I also predicted that as each of my predictions come true it will be met with "we all knew that would happen".

Again, that's a prediction that hasn't happened. Taking the two predictions we've just discussed, something other than what you predicted happened, and then you claimed that's what you knew would happen. You changing your tune about what you predicted is different than others changing their view on what was expected.

mild technical recession <> severe economic collapse

pausing interest rate hikes and QT <> interest rate collapse + mass QE

brief period in bear market territory <> 80% crash

Type_45 said:

The global financial bust that we are going to see will have been "widely predicted" too.

It wasn't. But that's how it will be talked about.

There's still time for your global financial bust to happen before the end of the year. Bookmark this post. If markets collapse 80% (from early Jan high, or any subsequent high) this year, and I claim that it was widely predicted or don't give you credit for getting it right, feel free to beat me with it. But if you get it wrong, be prepared to be called out on it.

They don't have a choice but to lower rates and print money.

If they tighten into a recession, as they are doing, they will collapse the economy.

They should have tightened last year. Or even in 2020. 

They need to print money right now, not tighten. They are committing a policy mistake which they will soon be forced to reverse. 

This will inflate asset prices. And then it will all come crashing down. 

That is all your opinions and predictions of the future.  The financial authorities and politicans have a wide choice of options.  And of course events are likely to happen that make the situation very different - did you predict Ukraine and the resultant rise in gas prices? Perhaps a smidgeon of humility to accept that you could possibly be wrong might be appropriate.

It's the unforced, self-inflicted errors of the financial authorities and politicians which have got us to where we are. All of it is their doing. And many of them are still in power. 

And even if they were capable of getting out of the mess they've landed us in, which they aren't, it's far too late now.

Type_45

I'm unsure of the details behind this week's $700bn giveaway by the Democrats but it's just going to add more fuel to the inflationary bonfire.

Type_45

Woah! What's just happened?

masonic

Any idea what is going on there? Looks specific to that ETF. Compare with COMM for example.

Type_45

I've just googled it and it appears to have snapped right back.

No idea what happened.

masonic

Looks like a dodgy entry in the feed from LSE. It affected several different sites. If it was a late reported trade, then it was about 6 months late!

Gary1984

It's the behaviour of the conspiracy theorist to look for one odd looking thing that can't be immediately explained then point at it and claim it validates their crackpot theories whilst ignoring all other contrary evidence.

masonic

Looks like it may have been suspended from trading for half an hour between 14:00-14:30:

Type_45

This would be an interesting poll to conduct on this forum:

Question:  Was June the "low"?


My guess is that most would say June was the low.

Sea_Shell

Type_45 said:

This would be an interesting poll to conduct on this forum:

Question:  Was June the "low"?


My guess is that most would say June was the low.

Hopefully 😉

Or are the green shoots of market recovery of the deceased feline variety?

How long does a recovery have to last before it's no longer just a "bounce"?

2 months, 6, 9, a year, 2 years?

So I'll let you know where the bottom is with hindsight in 2025.