How much longer will this bear market go on for?

kerrick

Amazin said:

I know this is a tough question and so far this week is not bad at all. I made some new stock purchases but wondering if I should wait longer

My pine cones say 2 months but this mornings tea leaves showed 5 years, so it's hard to say. But that won't stop experts giving predictions.

No one knows how current situations will develop and no one knows what unexpected new event will happen tomorrow. Invest to hold for the long term and don't hope to time the markets.

Type_45

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

Consumers feeling the pinch in the USA.

Isn't that just a share price chart for Walmart? Your comment seems a bit of a leap. Share prices plummet for reasons other than 'consumers feeling the pinch'. Just take Tesco for example.

Walmart issues profit warning as soaring inflation hits customers

Shares fall almost 10% after grim trading update ahead of second-quarter earnings

https://www.ft.com/content/664f16d0-2faf-4b7b-af72-236e370dbd08

Earning season. WMT profit warning is significant as WMT distributing staples / food should be a sector which should be performing well in the bear market. So if the the company such as WMT produce lower earning, it begs question what about other companies ?

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/25/amazon-sinks-after-walmart-lowers-profit-outlook-on-inflation-concerns.html

In fact analysts have named WMT profit warning is one of the cause other stocks to tank on Monday and Tuesday.

It's a big tell. There's more data to come out this week, so we'll see if that data points in the same direction.

But the Biden regime will probably seek to get ahead of the bad news by stating that major companies contracting is actually a sign of a strong economy.

YellowStarling

Type_45 said:

But the Biden regime will probably seek to get ahead of the bad news by stating that major companies contracting is actually a sign of a strong economy.

In recent days, they've already been downplaying the rule of thumb definition of a recession (2 consecutive quarters of negative real GDP) and insisting that a more "holistic" approach to drawing conclusions from various data should be adopted instead.  In other words, this recession-elect is not a recession if you choose not to think of it as one.  There was even a White House press release on it.

adindas

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

Consumers feeling the pinch in the USA.

Isn't that just a share price chart for Walmart? Your comment seems a bit of a leap. Share prices plummet for reasons other than 'consumers feeling the pinch'. Just take Tesco for example.

Walmart issues profit warning as soaring inflation hits customers

Shares fall almost 10% after grim trading update ahead of second-quarter earnings

https://www.ft.com/content/664f16d0-2faf-4b7b-af72-236e370dbd08

Earning season. WMT profit warning is significant as WMT distributing staples / food should be a sector which should be performing well in the bear market. So if the the company such as WMT produce lower earning, it begs question what about other companies ?

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/25/amazon-sinks-after-walmart-lowers-profit-outlook-on-inflation-concerns.html

In fact analysts have named WMT profit warning is one of the cause other stocks to tank on Monday and Tuesday.

It's a big tell. There's more data to come out this week, so we'll see if that data points in the same direction.

But the Biden regime will probably seek to get ahead of the bad news by stating that major companies contracting is actually a sign of a strong economy.

When come to picking up the right stocks time to sell and buy people should rely on Nancy Pelocy. She and her husband are very accurate for the time to buy and to sell stocks.

Type_45

US enters recession.

InvesterJones

Type_45 said:

US enters recession.

Indeed, and given the positive market reaction, it appears to have been priced in.

Type_45

A deflationary crash this autumn?  

Could be slow legs down.  Could be crashy.

masonic

Type_45 said:

A deflationary crash this autumn?  

Could be slow legs down.  Could be crashy.

The FOMC seems to be suggesting a pause in monetary tightening in September. Any move towards a deflationary environment would be expected to be short lived, and could lead to euphoria in markets. I think it is unlilkely we'll see any more than disinflation, very unlikely it will be enough to bring inflation down even to the target.

Good to see you've pivoted from rising inflation being crashy to falling inflation being crashy. I guess if all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

Type_45

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

A deflationary crash this autumn?  

Could be slow legs down.  Could be crashy.

The FOMC seems to be suggesting a pause in monetary tightening in September. Any move towards a deflationary environment would be expected to be short lived, and could lead to euphoria in markets. I think it is unlilkely we'll see any more than disinflation, very unlikely it will be enough to bring inflation down even to the target.

Good to see you've pivoted from rising inflation being crashy to falling inflation being crashy. I guess if all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

So I was correct about the US recession, and correct about the pivot. 

Alistair31

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

A deflationary crash this autumn?  

Could be slow legs down.  Could be crashy.

The FOMC seems to be suggesting a pause in monetary tightening in September. Any move towards a deflationary environment would be expected to be short lived, and could lead to euphoria in markets. I think it is unlilkely we'll see any more than disinflation, very unlikely it will be enough to bring inflation down even to the target.

Good to see you've pivoted from rising inflation being crashy to falling inflation being crashy. I guess if all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

So I was correct about the US recession, and correct about the pivot. 

Hopefully you are making loads of money from your wonderful foresight?