How much longer will this bear market go on for?

Type_45

I know two people who have bought houses very recently. 

For one it's a home. The other a BTL.

Both could have waited till the crash/correction happened. Both were given sound advice.

masonic

adindas said:

Based on statistics bear market takes about 10-61 months.

Which statistics are those please? The study you previously posted that ignored all bear markets of less than 10 months duration, or something else? The last bear market was less than 10 months. The S&P500 is now out of bear market territory, so it is possible this bear market is already over, although more likely we're in a bear market rally and there will be further declines ahead.

masonic

Albermarle said:

He is not though predicting an Armageddon in the housing market. A small reduction/ flat market for a couple of years would not be the end of the world, considering everything else happening.

I'm not suggesting that either. The bear case he predicted was a 20% pulldown, which is fairly typical of a crash scenario, while the neutral case was a flat market in nominal terms. Either scenario would be a good outcome in the long run as it would make property somewhat more affordable. Hopefully this will be against a backdrop of rising wages.

grumiofoundation

Type_45 said:

I know two people who have bought houses very recently. 

For one it's a home. The other a BTL.

Both could have waited till the crash/correction happened. Both were given sound advice.

Wonder who gave them this 'sound' advice?

I'm ready and waiting for your predicted 80% stock market crash by the end of 2022, when and by how much will the housing market crash/correct?

Thanks in advance

Swipe

Type_45 said:

I know two people who have bought houses very recently. 

For one it's a home. The other a BTL.

Both could have waited till the crash/correction happened. Both were given sound advice.

So it's not just forum members paying no attention to you then?

badger09

Type_45 said:

Albermarle said:

masonic said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

"Blackstone Prepares A Record $50 Billion To Snap Up Real Estate During The Coming Crash"
They know what's coming.

A property crash is something that hasn't been talked about much, but the rising cost of living, the squeezing of margins on businesses, and rapidly rising interest rates, is likely to see repossession rates go up and activity in the residential and commercial property markets stifled.

It's happened again, released just a few hours later...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJjMz-iDTg8

He is not though predicting an Armageddon in the housing market. A small reduction/ flat market for a couple of years would not be the end of the world, considering everything else happening.

Where in the video does he predict a "small reduction/flat market for a couple of years"?

Approx 14 minutes in.  ‘Worst case’ prediction, 5% pa fall in the next 3 years. 

I would describe that as a small reduction.

What would you call it?

Type_45

badger09 said:

Type_45 said:

Albermarle said:

masonic said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

"Blackstone Prepares A Record $50 Billion To Snap Up Real Estate During The Coming Crash"
They know what's coming.

A property crash is something that hasn't been talked about much, but the rising cost of living, the squeezing of margins on businesses, and rapidly rising interest rates, is likely to see repossession rates go up and activity in the residential and commercial property markets stifled.

It's happened again, released just a few hours later...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJjMz-iDTg8

He is not though predicting an Armageddon in the housing market. A small reduction/ flat market for a couple of years would not be the end of the world, considering everything else happening.

Where in the video does he predict a "small reduction/flat market for a couple of years"?

Approx 14 minutes in.  ‘Worst case’ prediction, 5% pa fall in the next 3 years. 

I would describe that as a small reduction.

What would you call it?

I'd call it BS. 

Do you believe the "worst case scenario" for the housing market is a 5% pa fall over the next 3 years?

Frequentlyhere

Type_45 said:

I'd call it BS. 

Do you believe the "worst case scenario" for the housing market is a 5% pa fall over the next 3 years?

Well, I'd personally struggle to imagine more. That'd be a 15% fall nominal and probably at least 25% real.

By comparison, the 08-09 recession barely made a dent in the housing market despite being one of the biggest economic crises in our times.

What happened then is what may happen now. People can't afford the prices but the sellers aren't willing to lose money. So liquidity dries up instead. Those who can (the majority) just stay put instead and wait it out.

The other thing that tends to happen in the UK at the first sign of trouble is that the Govt wade in all guns blazing with tax breaks and other incentives, because they know the electorate loves rising (or at least, not falling) house prices.

So yes I'd be very surprised to see any sort of fall beyond that, and would be surprised to see even that. Though if Patrick Minford is to be believed (hmmm...) then Trussonomics could see our interest rates at 7% in the near future. That'd certainly stress-test the market!

TonyTeacake

I've said it all along and still stick to what I say, this housing market crash will be the most disastrous on record.

I was talking about rampant inflation on here 6 months ago and how it will be disastrous to our economy, and most people were dismissing it. Now we are starting to see the damage it is causing. This inflation monster is only going to get much worse and will be with us for the rest of this decade. All of this money printed during the pandemic created a false economy. With the cost of living crisis we are going to see businesses go the wall, it's already started and unfortunately many people are going to lose their jobs.

National house prices were up for June but not for every region. NW down 0.4%, NE down 0.8% and London down 1.1%. This is the start of the downturn and in a few months every region will be down and this will continue for the next 2-3 years until we see the bottom. We will experience the biggest crash on record, expect to see up to 50% off in some areas.  The property market has had a good run for 2 years but now that is over.  It is also game over for most BTL.



Regional map for June



Regional map for July up to now.



If you look historically at these charts over the last 2 years none of these were red.


A lot of people are saying this is different to 2008? I agree this is much worse. Only this time around we have had a global pandemic, 100s of billions of money printed for QE, rampant inflation, the highest records recorded for personal debts, a war and supply chain problems. This will be a lot worse than 2008, the demand for buying houses will just evaporate.

To prove it is all pent-up demand in the last year here are true sales figures for UK properties year by year.
2018 = 1,190,070
2019 = 1,177,260
2020 = 1,036,170
2021 = 1,479,860
This is why they saying there is a shortage of properties, but really it is only pent-up demand created by the pandemic.

Unfortunately, the BOE and the Tories are behind the curve with inflation and interest rates need to be much higher. They are playing a dangerous game trying to protect the housing market with little interest rate hikes, this will end up in disaster because the economy will collapse. If you believe Bailey and his inflation targets for 2% in the next 2 years, you are dreaming. This is the same man who said last year that high inflation is transitory (short lived), now we all know that is not true and this inflation monster is entrenched into our economy.

Come winter time we are going to see the major cracks in our economy really unfold.

Adyinvestment

I do wish certain posters would stop posting as if their outlandish theories were set in stone and guaranteed to happen.

At least post accepting your opinions are just that...your opinions. I believe the way some posts are worded could be dangerous to the more impressionable reader, especially when there are clearly many worried people on the forums lately.