How much longer will this bear market go on for?

coastline

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

TA is not 100% accurate. 

I know it's not.  Otherwise you'd all be billionaires.



It's probably 5% accurate.  If that.

Type_45 said:

If TA worked then people who use it would all be billionaires.

Select the Annualised Performance tab and it shows 10.2% since start of data 1969. ? Don't know what other posters think but that's my benchmark in the equity field. Some good years and some bad. Easiest way to invest without research is a global tracker which has a more than reasonable returns over time. When picking active funds it's difficult to find many in the global sector that have outperformed this benchmark especially over 20 year periods and more.

Chart Tool | Trustnet

I've been using TA for years with better results . Have a look at my calls on the other thread and that was in a sideways market. So as above I only need to make 10% a year to keep in the game. 3 or 4 deals in a year might just do the trick. Yes it's not for everybody I'm well aware of that.
Today as I've just posted above all indicators are showing overbought so lower from here ? Look at the link below RSI moving from it's high limit of 70. MACD ,black above red, is beginning to cross. Stochastic one of my favourites is curling down from its top range. Sell. Could be wrong but probability suggests otherwise.

$SPX | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com

This will do for reference..

image_thumb_3.png (605×642) (equityclock.com)

Bobziz

Fib 50 at 4231 being tested.

masonic

I'm enjoying TA being discredited by an advocate of investing by conspiracy theory. When the 80% crash comes along later this year there will be some serious bragging rights.

adindas

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

TA is not 100% accurate. 

I know it's not.  Otherwise you'd all be billionaires.

It's probably 5% accurate.  If that.

Where is this random 5% figure coming from ? Why not 0%?

Have you heard about the legend Jim Simons ?. He is purely using Technical Analytical tools, self developed in-house.

Have a read on that come back here to discuss it.

Type_45

A lot of the people I follow use and refer to TA.  I'm not saying it doesn't have its place.

But it's clearly not a silver bullet.  It's not magical insight.  It won't make you rich.  That's just self-evident.

coastline

Just to add to the above I've mentioned when rallies are the real deal they tend not to give much back from the initial move. This is something I've picked up over the years. So in this case the June low was around 3650 on the SP 500 . Could well be 4,000 for the next low . We can only see at the end of the day. It's mid term elections in the US and markets tend to drift lower anyway. ?
Something to note for holders of global funds and trackers. The chart below looks nice back to the highs.

Chart Tool | Trustnet

The weekly view of the Dollar Index is very extended. Not saying it will fall but you never know ?

Public ChartLists | StockCharts.com

Type_45

coastline said:

Just to add to the above I've mentioned when rallies are the real deal they tend not to give much back from the initial move. This is something I've picked up over the years. So in this case the June low was around 3650 on the SP 500 . Could well be 4,000 for the next low . We can only see at the end of the day. It's mid term elections in the US and markets tend to drift lower anyway. ?
Something to note for holders of global funds and trackers. The chart below looks nice back to the highs.

Chart Tool | Trustnet

The weekly view of the Dollar Index is very extended. Not saying it will fall but you never know ?

Public ChartLists | StockCharts.com

One can read into tea leaves whatever one wants.

coastline

Type_45 said:

coastline said:

Just to add to the above I've mentioned when rallies are the real deal they tend not to give much back from the initial move. This is something I've picked up over the years. So in this case the June low was around 3650 on the SP 500 . Could well be 4,000 for the next low . We can only see at the end of the day. It's mid term elections in the US and markets tend to drift lower anyway. ?
Something to note for holders of global funds and trackers. The chart below looks nice back to the highs.

Chart Tool | Trustnet

The weekly view of the Dollar Index is very extended. Not saying it will fall but you never know ?

Public ChartLists | StockCharts.com

One can read into tea leaves whatever one wants.

Nothing special in what I'm doing just a simple reading of momentum indicators and a 10 day simple moving average on a chart. Playing the extremes for buying and selling and no TA courses attended . All picked up from watching and learning .
Here's the calls I posted live last year and the one I posted around the low in June. FTSE originally 7040 now 7500 . Points from the system over 1500 . 20% ? and buying lower . Dividends well if I buy a ETF tracker I also get the dividends along the way. Short term trading not day trading . I'd be clueless at that.

Economy crash =/= stock market crash? - Page 88 — MoneySavingExpert Forum

Economy crash =/= stock market crash? - Page 123 — MoneySavingExpert Forum

Type_45

coastline said:

Type_45 said:

coastline said:

Just to add to the above I've mentioned when rallies are the real deal they tend not to give much back from the initial move. This is something I've picked up over the years. So in this case the June low was around 3650 on the SP 500 . Could well be 4,000 for the next low . We can only see at the end of the day. It's mid term elections in the US and markets tend to drift lower anyway. ?
Something to note for holders of global funds and trackers. The chart below looks nice back to the highs.

Chart Tool | Trustnet

The weekly view of the Dollar Index is very extended. Not saying it will fall but you never know ?

Public ChartLists | StockCharts.com

One can read into tea leaves whatever one wants.

Nothing special in what I'm doing just a simple reading of momentum indicators and a 10 day simple moving average on a chart. Playing the extremes for buying and selling and no TA courses attended . All picked up from watching and learning .
Here's the calls I posted live last year and the one I posted around the low in June. FTSE originally 7040 now 7500 . Points from the system over 1500 . 20% ? and buying lower . Dividends well if I buy a ETF tracker I also get the dividends along the way. Short term trading not day trading . I'd be clueless at that.

Economy crash =/= stock market crash? - Page 88 — MoneySavingExpert Forum

Economy crash =/= stock market crash? - Page 123 — MoneySavingExpert Forum

June wasn't the low.  We are experiencing a bear market rally.

masonic

Type_45 said:

coastline said:

Type_45 said:

coastline said:

Just to add to the above I've mentioned when rallies are the real deal they tend not to give much back from the initial move. This is something I've picked up over the years. So in this case the June low was around 3650 on the SP 500 . Could well be 4,000 for the next low . We can only see at the end of the day. It's mid term elections in the US and markets tend to drift lower anyway. ?
Something to note for holders of global funds and trackers. The chart below looks nice back to the highs.

Chart Tool | Trustnet

The weekly view of the Dollar Index is very extended. Not saying it will fall but you never know ?

Public ChartLists | StockCharts.com

One can read into tea leaves whatever one wants.

Nothing special in what I'm doing just a simple reading of momentum indicators and a 10 day simple moving average on a chart. Playing the extremes for buying and selling and no TA courses attended . All picked up from watching and learning .
Here's the calls I posted live last year and the one I posted around the low in June. FTSE originally 7040 now 7500 . Points from the system over 1500 . 20% ? and buying lower . Dividends well if I buy a ETF tracker I also get the dividends along the way. Short term trading not day trading . I'd be clueless at that.

Economy crash =/= stock market crash? - Page 88 — MoneySavingExpert Forum

Economy crash =/= stock market crash? - Page 123 — MoneySavingExpert Forum

June wasn't the low.  We are experiencing a bear market rally.

Is there still going to be a melt-up before the 80% crash later this year, or has the failure of central banks to slash interest rates according to your expectations scuppered that?