How much longer will this bear market go on for?

wmb194

Type_45 said:

I had no idea TA was a cult in the same way BTC/crypto is.


Interesting that we rarely hear owners of property, land, gold and silver defend their chosen asset classes in this way. (The latter do, but there is an attempt at a squeeze in progress which requires publicity.)

You've never heard of a, 'goldbug'?

Millyonare

Yes, technical analysis (TA) is a bit pseudosciencey. But it does sometimes work. For example, some academic research suggests a "golden cross" signal for stocks (to buy) is successful 60-70% of the time. In the right hands, they are good odds.

Type_45

Millyonare said:

Yes, technical analysis (TA) is a bit pseudosciencey. But it does sometimes work. For example, some academic research suggests a "golden cross" signal for stocks (to buy) is successful 60-70% of the time. In the right hands, they are good odds.

And these "academic researchers" are still working a 9-5 with a mortgage because TA those 60%-70% odds don't work in reality. If they did we'd all be doing it. 

Type_45

wmb194 said:

Type_45 said:

I had no idea TA was a cult in the same way BTC/crypto is.


Interesting that we rarely hear owners of property, land, gold and silver defend their chosen asset classes in this way. (The latter do, but there is an attempt at a squeeze in progress which requires publicity.)

You've never heard of a, 'goldbug'?

Gold is real. Crypto and TA are make believe. 

wmb194

Type_45 said:

wmb194 said:

Type_45 said:

I had no idea TA was a cult in the same way BTC/crypto is.


Interesting that we rarely hear owners of property, land, gold and silver defend their chosen asset classes in this way. (The latter do, but there is an attempt at a squeeze in progress which requires publicity.)

You've never heard of a, 'goldbug'?

Gold is real. Crypto and TA are make believe. 

So, no. Goldbugs are die hard gold fans who think it's the only 'real' money and normal people will be begging to buy it from them when everything collapses*.

*But they're always a bit vague on what this actually means.

Altior

Faith based investing can be seen everywhere nowadays. I suspect mainly due to social media and the internet era. On the numbers, most people in a detached analysis would say a stock like TSLA with a PE ratio of over 100 is wildly overvalued. But they would have said a few years ago too, and anyone assuming the faith and acting on it back then would have done very well. 

Sentiment has a huge influence, over and above facts in the investing world in my view, and superseded cool headed analysis. Will that ever come to an end as the internet isn't going anywhere. One could easily argue misplaced sentiment is what is is cultivating the seemingly overvalued US markets right now. Will equities ever return to rationality, or will sentiment dominate for the foreseeable future, is a reasonably open question. Especially with so much newly created cash needing a home where in theory it won't waste away.

For me, it's about playing the long game and hoping the drift up over the very long run that history shows is almost inevitable, will continue. I don't feel a collapse of the entire financial system can be completely ruled out, but if that happens, it won't really matter what I do leading up to that event. 

Type_45

wmb194 said:

Type_45 said:

wmb194 said:

Type_45 said:

I had no idea TA was a cult in the same way BTC/crypto is.


Interesting that we rarely hear owners of property, land, gold and silver defend their chosen asset classes in this way. (The latter do, but there is an attempt at a squeeze in progress which requires publicity.)

You've never heard of a, 'goldbug'?

Gold is real. Crypto and TA are make believe. 

So, no. Goldbugs are die hard gold fans who think it's the only 'real' money and normal people will be begging to buy it from them when everything collapses*.

*But they're always a bit vague on what this actually means.

Gold and silver are real money.  That is a statement of fact.


There is nothing vague about it.  Currency collapse happens and when it does gold and silver become currency, not just money.

masonic

Type_45 said:

wmb194 said:

Type_45 said:

wmb194 said:

Type_45 said:

I had no idea TA was a cult in the same way BTC/crypto is.


Interesting that we rarely hear owners of property, land, gold and silver defend their chosen asset classes in this way. (The latter do, but there is an attempt at a squeeze in progress which requires publicity.)

You've never heard of a, 'goldbug'?

Gold is real. Crypto and TA are make believe. 

So, no. Goldbugs are die hard gold fans who think it's the only 'real' money and normal people will be begging to buy it from them when everything collapses*.

*But they're always a bit vague on what this actually means.

Gold and silver are real money.  That is a statement of fact.

It isn't money. The main criteria for money is that it is "generally accepted as payment for goods and services and repayment of debts" and "a socially accepted standard unit with which things are priced". Acceptance of gold as a means of payment, or items being priced in units of gold, is hardly widespread.

If the doo-doo really hits the fan, the really valuable resources to trade with are unlikely to include shiny metals. And good luck using cryptocurrencies to pay for anything.

Type_45

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

wmb194 said:

Type_45 said:

wmb194 said:

Type_45 said:

I had no idea TA was a cult in the same way BTC/crypto is.


Interesting that we rarely hear owners of property, land, gold and silver defend their chosen asset classes in this way. (The latter do, but there is an attempt at a squeeze in progress which requires publicity.)

You've never heard of a, 'goldbug'?

Gold is real. Crypto and TA are make believe. 

So, no. Goldbugs are die hard gold fans who think it's the only 'real' money and normal people will be begging to buy it from them when everything collapses*.

*But they're always a bit vague on what this actually means.

Gold and silver are real money.  That is a statement of fact.

It isn't money. The main criteria for money is that it is "generally accepted as payment for goods and services and repayment of debts" and "a socially accepted standard unit with which things are priced". Acceptance of gold as a means of payment, or items being priced in units of gold, is hardly widespread.

If the doo-doo really hits the fan, the really valuable resources to trade with are unlikely to include shiny metals. And good luck using cryptocurrencies to pay for anything.

Weimar says "hello".

wmb194

Type_45 said:

wmb194 said:

Type_45 said:

wmb194 said:

Type_45 said:

I had no idea TA was a cult in the same way BTC/crypto is.


Interesting that we rarely hear owners of property, land, gold and silver defend their chosen asset classes in this way. (The latter do, but there is an attempt at a squeeze in progress which requires publicity.)

You've never heard of a, 'goldbug'?

Gold is real. Crypto and TA are make believe. 

So, no. Goldbugs are die hard gold fans who think it's the only 'real' money and normal people will be begging to buy it from them when everything collapses*.

*But they're always a bit vague on what this actually means.

Gold and silver are real money.  That is a statement of fact.


There is nothing vague about it.  Currency collapse happens and when it does gold and silver become currency, not just money.

Ho ho ho. No, it's all a human construct I'm afraid. What you're saying is that you think it will continue to be in demand and people will trade you things for it but this doesn't make it money. I'm sure oil and gas will still be in demand as well. 

The "currency" will just be the new reichsmark, the new dollar, the new euro and so on or it will be a foreign currency substitution e.g., dollarisation or euroisation. It's all happened before in other countries. There's absolutely no way we'll ever go back to the gold standard, if that's what you're thinking. As I said, the thinking of goldbugs around what 'collapse' actually is and what it will entail is very woolly.