How much longer will this bear market go on for?

Type_45

wmb194 said:

What you're saying is that you think it will continue to be in demand and people will trade you things for it but this doesn't make it money. 

Yes I am.  And yes it does.

wmb194

Type_45 said:

wmb194 said:

What you're saying is that you think it will continue to be in demand and people will trade you things for it but this doesn't make it money. 

Yes I am.  And yes it does.

Sure there might be demand but no, it doesn't make it money - see Masonic's post above.

We'll leave it here because I've made my point about how there are plenty of 'cults' (and cultists) in various parts of the investment world.

Type_45

Gold and silver are real money.  Have been for millennia.  Gold is the money of the rich and banks.  And silver is the money of the common people.

Currencies are gold and silver substitutes.  It literally said so on the notes themselves until fairly recently.

When currencies collapse gold and silver step in and become currencies again (as well as being real money).  This has happened before and will happen again.  The currency value (eg GBP) of an ounce of gold/silver will skyrocket at that time.

Following this currency collapse a new substitute currency for gold/silver will come in again.  

Prism

Type_45 said:

Gold and silver are real money.  Have been for millennia.  Gold is the money of the rich and banks.  And silver is the money of the common people.

Currencies are gold and silver substitutes.  It literally said so on the notes themselves until fairly recently.

When currencies collapse gold and silver step in and become currencies again (as well as being real money).  This has happened before and will happen again.  The currency value (eg GBP) of an ounce of gold/silver will skyrocket at that time.

Following this currency collapse a new substitute currency for gold/silver will come in again.  

Do you not think people will just move from the failing currency to another currency rather than to gold? Or do you think that all/most currencies will fail together?

Type_45

Prism said:

Type_45 said:

Gold and silver are real money.  Have been for millennia.  Gold is the money of the rich and banks.  And silver is the money of the common people.

Currencies are gold and silver substitutes.  It literally said so on the notes themselves until fairly recently.

When currencies collapse gold and silver step in and become currencies again (as well as being real money).  This has happened before and will happen again.  The currency value (eg GBP) of an ounce of gold/silver will skyrocket at that time.

Following this currency collapse a new substitute currency for gold/silver will come in again.  

Do you not think people will just move from the failing currency to another currency rather than to gold? Or do you think that all/most currencies will fail together?

Perhaps they will.  Perhaps they'll also head down to the shop and buy literally anything they can get in order to exchange their collapsing GBP into something physical which will hold its value and also perhaps be barterable for other goods and services.


But all the while this is happening gold and silver will be skyrocketing in value. Not everyone will have gold and silver at this time. But those that do will have massive purchasing power.

Eventually the currency situation will be resolved and gold and silver will discover their new normal price and traditional functions.

Bobziz

Forget gold, green is where the real action will be.

https://youtu.be/TkZFuKHXa7w

Type_45

UK inflation ‘to hit 18%’ as energy bills rocket; recession fears hit markets

Rising cost of living is “entering the stratosphere” says Citi, which forecasts energy price cap could rise to £5,816 per year in April

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2022/aug/22/cineworld-us-bankruptcy-felixstowe-strike-gas-prices-recession-stock-markets-business-live

Alistair31

Well I sold out of Fundsmith today. About 10% off it’s peak but mustn’t grumble, still a nice little earner since May 2020.

Type_45

"June was the low".

adindas

Type_45 said:

Millyonare said:

Yes, technical analysis (TA) is a bit pseudosciencey. But it does sometimes work. For example, some academic research suggests a "golden cross" signal for stocks (to buy) is successful 60-70% of the time. In the right hands, they are good odds.

And these "academic researchers" are still working a 9-5 with a mortgage because TA those 60%-70% odds don't work in reality. If they did we'd all be doing it. 

Another comment showing lacking of understanding a very basic thing. Doing a research, surveys and know how to use the tools are two different things. If you find out in your research that many surgeons are successful in operation using robots, it does not automatically mean those who conduct these research are a successful surgeon (if they  even need to be a surgeon).

The same things with knowing the theories and apply it in practices. You see there are a lot of professors in Accounting and Finance with a wide knowledge of finance & Accounting; It is does not automatically, make them a successful trader or investor. In the real world there a lot of other things which are difference with these exist in theories. One good example in finance is that, Efficient Marker Hypothesis (EMH), Reversion to the Mean where many of theories in finance are based up. This is not necessarily true in reality.

As mentioned previously there are other factors that could effect the stock market which is not reflected in TA (or when get picked up from price/volume action it is already too late) such as fundamental of the companies, market / sector rotations, geopolitical issues, economics, black swan event, etc. Those who use the TA sensibly, will identify their limitations.

Another point here is that, it is not easy to master a technical analysis, need a lot of practises and to back test it. It is very easy to misinterpret, to misuse / mishandle it, especially those who cannot control their emotion. It is not uncommon some traders make millions, successfully in their early careers, only to lose them in the very latest stage of their careers as they get greedy, cannot control their emotions, have forgotten the basic rule of investing/trading "Never Lose Money".  A good recent example of this is the former multi Billionaires, Bill Hwang. For People who do not use it sensibly, they will lose money instead of making money.

The very basic things in TA, such as identifying the support and resistance levels/zones, moving averages especially if the support and resistance levels, moving average lines have been retested multiple time in the past. Any person with common sense could easily understand that your prediction is at least better than a person who base their prediction by simply tossing a fair coin or reading Tea Leaves (or Tarot).