How much longer will this bear market go on for?

Type_45

Markets not taking Powell's Jackson Hole speech well then.

jcuurthht

Type_45 said:

Markets not taking Powell's Jackson Hole speech well then.

Congratulations on the spy puts

Swipe

jcuurthht said:

Type_45 said:

Markets not taking Powell's Jackson Hole speech well then.

Congratulations on the spy puts

Come on, surely you know by now this guy doesn't put his money where his mouth is.

Type_45

Powell's mention of the word "Volcker" should alarm investors.

Millyonare

The S&P500 has jumped +15% in 2 months. Just a bit of profit-taking in the past 2 weeks, as one would expect. The algos heard some bad words today from Powell and have auto-sold off.

The US inflation numbers remain the key, and they look much healthier. Today's latest numbers for July 2022 showed another good fall in inflation. Inflation is coming down (in America).

masonic

Type_45 said:

Powell's mention of the word "Volcker" should alarm investors.

The whole speech was an ode to Volcker, even using the name of his book, "Keeping at it", to summarise the resolve to keep tightening until inflation is under control. That said, the market hasn't shifted dramatically in its expectations for interest rates.

Are you still predicting a panicked reversal of rates and QE?

jcuurthht

Millyonare said:

The S&P500 has jumped +15% in 2 months. Just a bit of profit-taking in the past 2 weeks, as one would expect. The algos heard some bad words today from Powell and have auto-sold off.

The US inflation numbers remain the key, and they look much healthier. Today's latest numbers for July 2022 showed another good fall in inflation. Inflation is coming down (in America).

Stop losses triggered all the way down

Type_45

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

Powell's mention of the word "Volcker" should alarm investors.

The whole speech was an ode to Volcker, even using the name of his book, "Keeping at it", to summarise the resolve to keep tightening until inflation is under control. That said, the market hasn't shifted dramatically in its expectations for interest rates.

Are you still predicting a panicked reversal of rates and QE?

Yes I am.  I think the Fed will be forced to reverse when they see how bad the economy is.  They are heading for a depression.

And bear in mind that the rate hikes take months to be felt.  The impact of them could be extremely damaging down the line when the deep recession/depression is apparent for all to see.

masonic

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

Powell's mention of the word "Volcker" should alarm investors.

The whole speech was an ode to Volcker, even using the name of his book, "Keeping at it", to summarise the resolve to keep tightening until inflation is under control. That said, the market hasn't shifted dramatically in its expectations for interest rates.

Are you still predicting a panicked reversal of rates and QE?

Yes I am.  I think the Fed will be forced to reverse when they see how bad the economy is.  They are heading for a depression.

And bear in mind that the rate hikes take months to be felt.  The impact of them could be extremely damaging down the line when the deep recession/depression is apparent for all to see.

I agree with you on the harms caused by this tightening. When the cause of the inflation is mainly on the supply side, and the demand is for essentials, it is essentially an exercise in pricing those on lower incomes out of existence so that the more wealthy can go on consuming at the same level. There's the potential for things to get quite ugly if this is pushed too far. However, I don't think there will be a forced reversal on interest rates. The commitment to stay the course seems pretty resolute. Some other way will need to be found to support people and businesses through it.

adindas

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

Powell's mention of the word "Volcker" should alarm investors.

The whole speech was an ode to Volcker, even using the name of his book, "Keeping at it", to summarise the resolve to keep tightening until inflation is under control. That said, the market hasn't shifted dramatically in its expectations for interest rates.

Are you still predicting a panicked reversal of rates and QE?

Yes I am.  I think the Fed will be forced to reverse when they see how bad the economy is.  They are heading for a depression.

And bear in mind that the rate hikes take months to be felt.  The impact of them could be extremely damaging down the line when the deep recession/depression is apparent for all to see.

Stop misused the word "depression". There is only one depression in the US during in industrial times e.g. the Great Depression.

It spanned a decade, from the stock market crash of 1929 until 1939, when the U.S. began mobilizing for WWII.

With one of the lowest unemployment in the history how could it matches the word "depression". Sensibly, the US will need to get involved directly in the frontal war to trigger a depression. That chance is next to none.