How much longer will this bear market go on for?

masonic

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

Powell's mention of the word "Volcker" should alarm investors.

The whole speech was an ode to Volcker, even using the name of his book, "Keeping at it", to summarise the resolve to keep tightening until inflation is under control. That said, the market hasn't shifted dramatically in its expectations for interest rates.

Are you still predicting a panicked reversal of rates and QE?

Yes I am.  I think the Fed will be forced to reverse when they see how bad the economy is.  They are heading for a depression.

And bear in mind that the rate hikes take months to be felt.  The impact of them could be extremely damaging down the line when the deep recession/depression is apparent for all to see.

Stop misused the word "depression". There is only one depression in the US during in industrial times e.g. the Great Depression.

It spanned a decade, from the stock market crash of 1929 until 1939, when the U.S. began mobilizing for WWII.

With one of the lowest unemployment in the history how could it matches the word "depression"

Sensibly, the US will need to get involved directly in frontal war to trigger a depression. That chance is next to none.

I don't think the word is being misused. Type_45 really believes there is going to be an extreme fall in economic activity that will last for years.

bd10

I won't be touching US and long duration style funds or stocks for quite some time while the bear market continues. Another leg down on poor earnings outlook, no desire to be a hero.

adindas

bd10 said:

I won't be touching US and long duration style funds or stocks for quite some time while the bear market continues. Another leg down on poor earnings outlook, no desire to be a hero.

If you really believe with very high probability,  very high conviction that the stock market is going to crash hard, leading to a depression, you could become a multi millionaire by using the following trading strategies utilising high leverage :

- Shorting Individual stocks, Shorting the VIX, Shorting Index ETF

- Naked Put option, using option trading. There are other variation of put option such as Bear put spread strategy, Covered put Strategy.

- Buy Inverse ETFs especially ETFs containing a lot of high growth stocks.

Type_45

I'm not even going to participate in the melt up. 

As good as it sounds to do so, when the top comes it would be hard to sell. And then as the market falls you'd probably freeze waiting to see if it goes back up a bit first. And then it takes another leg down. Then another.

I've been through this exact situation several times with crypto. 

InvesterJones

Type_45 said:

I'm not even going to participate in the melt up.

Could you summarise simply what you are convinced is going to happen? I've got a bit lost as you're claiming both 80% falls and 'melt up's (which I presume are some kind of increase in markets in a very 'hot' way?)

masonic

Type_45 said:

I've been through this exact situation several times with crypto. 

Oh my goodness. This explains a lot.

Type_45

InvesterJones said:

Type_45 said:

I'm not even going to participate in the melt up.

Could you summarise simply what you are convinced is going to happen? I've got a bit lost as you're claiming both 80% falls and 'melt up's (which I presume are some kind of increase in markets in a very 'hot' way?)

There's a possibility of a melt up before the collapse. Probably when the Fed pivots.

But the melt up may not happen. It could simply be legs down with occasional rallies, some of them furious which will pull in more money from the sidelines.

Type_45

coastline said:

Type_45 said:

InvesterJones said:

Type_45 said:

I'm not even going to participate in the melt up.

Could you summarise simply what you are convinced is going to happen? I've got a bit lost as you're claiming both 80% falls and 'melt up's (which I presume are some kind of increase in markets in a very 'hot' way?)

There's a possibility of a melt up before the collapse. Probably when the Fed pivots.

But the melt up may not happen. It could simply be legs down with occasional rallies, some of them furious which will pull in more money from the sidelines.

you'll like this one then..

Adithia Kusno ☦️🐂🚀💎🙌🎯 (@AdithiaKusno) / Twitter

What's the cut of his jib?

adindas

Type_45 said:

I'm not even going to participate in the melt up. 

As good as it sounds to do so, when the top comes it would be hard to sell. And then as the market falls you'd probably freeze waiting to see if it goes back up a bit first. And then it takes another leg down. Then another.

I've been through this exact situation several times with crypto. 

The Method you are using in swing trading is a pure guessing, tossing a fair coin, e.g pure gambling with no scientific basis. If it is pure guessing, tossing a coin the outcomes is binary 50% probability to get either head or tail. That explains a lot.

That is where the TA is for. It is still a probability but you make it the odd is your favour before you strike. The TA is mainly reading the chart, using various indicators, analysing the short term Price/Volume Action.

You mentioned before you do not learn the TA because you think TA is the same with reading Tea Leaves (or Tarot), that is fine. But any sensible person will understand that using TA when you are doing a swing trading a highly volatile assets like you did in Cryptos, it will at least improve your chance in the winning side rather than pure guessing.

masonic

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

I'm not even going to participate in the melt up. 

As good as it sounds to do so, when the top comes it would be hard to sell. And then as the market falls you'd probably freeze waiting to see if it goes back up a bit first. And then it takes another leg down. Then another.

I've been through this exact situation several times with crypto. 

The Method you are using in swing trading is a pure guessing, tossing a coin, e.g pure gambling with no scientific basis. If it is pure guessing, tossing a coin the outcomes is binary 50% probability to get either head or tail. That explains a lot.

That is where the TA is for. It is still a probability but you make it the odd is your favour before you strike. The TA is mainly reading the chart, using various indicators, analysing the short term Price/Volume Action.

You mention before you do not learn the TA, that is fine. But any sensible person will understand that using TA rather than pure guessing in swing trading will at least improve your chance in the winning side.

It's actually less than 50% because more like two thirds of the time markets will move against someone with a permanently bearish outlook. It all depends on whether Type_45 has some great insight missed by the vast majority of others.