How much longer will this bear market go on for?

masonic

Type_45 said:

1973-74: 54%

2000-03: 48%
2009-10: 50%

And none of those were depressions.

Those examples are among the worst. They are balanced out with many where the pulldown was much less. Making the median about half of those examples.

The last global depression was probably 1989-1994, caused by multiple crises, during which there was a 20% dip in stock prices, but markets moved upward over the broader period.

Type_45

coastline said:

More data again history suggests stocks perform less well before a recession . Pricing in now ?

FbNJUsLUYAEgfcS (900×657) (twimg.com)

Yields are going higher on the 2 year bonds. The pace of increase is nowhere near the past . It's rapid but maybe this is what Fed hinted at when quoting Volcker.?  Doesn't mean they'll go to the moon . Under 4% ? 

United States 2 Year Note Yield - 2022 Data - 1976-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast (tradingeconomics.com)

United Kingdom 2 Year Note Yield - 2022 Data - 2007-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast (tradingeconomics.com)

Equity valuations will be under pressure you would think ? The June lows hold for now around 10% below on the SP500 today.

US500 | SPX - Index Price | Live Quote | Historical Chart (tradingeconomics.com)

A gloomy chart comparing Spanish flu and today. Nobody knows really.

FbLzffvVEAE04Hw (900×654) (twimg.com)

I heard yesterday that the 1yr is also higher than the 10yr.

Recession indicators everywhere.

Type_45

Plus ca change.

InvesterJones

Type_45 said:

I heard yesterday that the 1yr is also higher than the 10yr.

Recession indicators everywhere.

How's employment looking?

Type_45

Any "June was the low" bros in da house?

t1redmonkey

I'm panicking and selling all my shares as we speak due to the 40 point decrease in the ftse 100!

Type_45

S&P below 4000.

masonic

Type_45 said:

Any "June was the low" bros in da house?

Not me, but still another 8-9% to go to get to June's low. I'm firmly in the maybe / maybe not camp.

Type_45

We need a TA bro in here to reassure us with candlesticks and heads-and-shoulders and stuff.

InvesterJones

Type_45 said:

S&P below 4000.

You said you were a macro, bigger picture guy. Have you changed your mind to now be interested in a short picture?

Type_45 said:
Any "June was the low" bros in da ho

I think the only person who's said it was the low is you. Other people have said there was a low in June, which is factually correct. Said low was around 3666 so still some way to go as of yet.