How much longer will this bear market go on for?

coastline

Type_45 said:

We need a TA bro in here to reassure us with candlesticks and heads-and-shoulders and stuff.

Not obsessed with TA but again I've used it to call a short term top on 19th August. Read back what I posted in the link below. Sell around 4300.

How much longer will this bear market go on for? - Page 50 — MoneySavingExpert Forum

Today we sit at 3950 and momentum indicators are now heading to the oversold region. What to do buy or sit tight. ? For a buy that's a good 7% cheaper. You could wait a bit as the price is below the Red 10 day moving average but you might lose a few points . Or it falls further ? Take your pick but I did say you don't need that many yearly deals to outperform the global tracker. 
Line in the sand SP500 at June 3650 still intact. Apart from that I know very little. Inflation ?? Interest rates ?? Company earnings and valuations. ??

$SPX | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com

August 19th

image_thumb_3.png (605×642) (equityclock.com)

August 31st..

image_thumb_3.png (605×642) (equityclock.com)

InvesterJones

Type_45 said:

Good article which touches on most, but not all, the things I've been talking about which are coming together to create this global financial bust.

Point of no return: crunch time as China tries to fend off property crash

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/28/crunch-time-china-tries-to-fend-off-property-crash-global-economy 

It is a good article, concluding: "things could still go in any number of directions" - advice you're taking to heart I hope?

billy2shots

I've fallen into keeping an eye on Wall Street Bets on Reddit.

I'm not sure how I stumbled upon it but now I can't stop checking it a couple of times a day. 

It is the complete opposite of this thread (ultra bullish on its target) but it reminds me of here so much. 

Posters absolutely adamant that something is going to happen relying solely on gut feel and strangers hyping things up to the point where people become blinkered to everything and everyone else. 

The recent darling stock was BBBY (Bed Bath and Beyond).  
It was 'going to the moon' today. People were choosing the colours of their Lamborghini's. Someone had $750k (with proof) riding on today. 

Out of hours BBBY announced they were diluting shares to stay solvent. Stock opens up 20% down. 

To the moooon...


Now most rational people would see a failing company selling over priced things that could be bought on Amazon etc for half the price. A bricks and mortar store failing to get with the times heading for bankruptcy. 

Then a few people get talking on the internet and rationale goes out the window. 

Stay the course people. Stick to your long-term investment plans and don't make any crazy bets one way or another.

I fear Type_45 was swayed into making a crazy move which could take a long time to recover from. 

He may end up proved right but a gamble is still a gamble even if you win. 

bd10

I think we'll get another leg down on the S&P on the back of disappointing corp earnings and the Fed will keep hiking away. I am not tempted to buy US equities anytime soon. Once S&P reaches 3,000 mark, I'll have a look again.

To keep a cool head and not to jump in too early, I am using a very simple indicator that ignored most of the downturn during the GFC bear market and 2000 tech bubble. Simple moving average, just to filter out noise and my emotions.

adindas

coastline said:

Type_45 said:

We need a TA bro in here to reassure us with candlesticks and heads-and-shoulders and stuff.

Not obsessed with TA but again I've used it to call a short term top on 19th August. Read back what I posted in the link below. Sell around 4300.

How much longer will this bear market go on for? - Page 50 — MoneySavingExpert Forum

Today we sit at 3950 and momentum indicators are now heading to the oversold region. What to do buy or sit tight. ? For a buy that's a good 7% cheaper. You could wait a bit as the price is below the Red 10 day moving average but you might lose a few points . Or it falls further ? Take your pick but I did say you don't need that many yearly deals to outperform the global tracker. 
Line in the sand SP500 at June 3650 still intact. Apart from that I know very little. Inflation ?? Interest rates ?? Company earnings and valuations. ??

$SPX | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com

August 19th

image_thumb_3.png (605×642) (equityclock.com)

August 31st..

image_thumb_3.png (605×642) (equityclock.com)

It is only people with no common sense at all can not see that TA has some use if it is used properly especially in a relatively short term. Let alone comparing them with reading Tea Leaves, Tarot.

"Reversion to the mean" for instance, it is not 100% accurate but the chance is that the odd is in your favour; more than 50%+ chance they will reverse to the mean than not. That is what such as moving average, simple or exponential the most simple TA are doing. That is the nature of the stock market pendulum as Howard Mark describes it.

Another example is reading the volume / price action. If they suddenly in overbought territory if you stay away from buying it, your chance to get it right is better than people who blindly buying it even the market is overbought territory. Similarly if you notice if the market is in greedy mode you will stay. It is not 100% right but your chance to get it right is better.

My analogy with TA is using a sniper riffle compared to "spear" with your eyes blindfolded for people who just blindly guessing it.

TA is a recognisable tools used by professionals. If you watch the investing channel like CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg, Forbes, most (if not all) of analysts/strategists are using or referring to TA. They refer in the discussion for instance 50-days moving average, 200-days moving average, etc.

Also fund managers, institutional investors, big whales if they decide to buy a large number of shares on a particular day they will use VWAP to instruct the Brokers. Otherwise they will be showering with their own blood as every time they pour their money into particular stock, the price will keep jumping up significantly due to the magnitude of shares number they are buying.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/vwap.asp

The above is just a few simple easy to understand the use of TA.

Many people / Traders have success in  the early days in trading using TA, but only to lose them all at the later stage as they get greedy, forget the main rule of investing "never lose money". The good and recent example to this is multi Billionaires Bill Hwang. Some people start sailing before learning how to climb the rope.

If you follow learning from people selling discord or courses on TA and you get burnt, do not blame TA is not working that is your own fault for not using your common sense. Good to listen to many opinions but sensible people will put emphasize to authoritative sources, what the smart money is doing, the people who have track  records of making money, and you test it by yourself. Not following or learning from random people on the internet.

Type_45

Biggest August percentage declines since 2015 for the S&P, Nasdaq and Dow.

https://news.sky.com/story/us-stocks-register-weakest-august-performance-in-seven-years-12686390

InvesterJones

Type_45 said:

Biggest August percentage declines since 2015 for the S&P, Nasdaq and Dow.

https://news.sky.com/story/us-stocks-register-weakest-august-performance-in-seven-years-12686390

This August we've had strong signals on tightening by the Fed, but what happened in Aug 2015?

adindas

billy2shots said:

I've fallen into keeping an eye on Wall Street Bets on Reddit.

I'm not sure how I stumbled upon it but now I can't stop checking it a couple of times a day. 

It is the complete opposite of this thread (ultra bullish on its target) but it reminds me of here so much. 

Posters absolutely adamant that something is going to happen relying solely on gut feel and strangers hyping things up to the point where people become blinkered to everything and everyone else. 

The recent darling stock was BBBY (Bed Bath and Beyond).  
It was 'going to the moon' today. People were choosing the colours of their Lamborghini's. Someone had $750k (with proof) riding on today. 

Out of hours BBBY announced they were diluting shares to stay solvent. Stock opens up 20% down. 

To the moooon...


Now most rational people would see a failing company selling over priced things that could be bought on Amazon etc for half the price. A bricks and mortar store failing to get with the times heading for bankruptcy. 

Then a few people get talking on the internet and rationale goes out the window. 

Stay the course people. Stick to your long-term investment plans and don't make any crazy bets one way or another.

I fear Type_45 was swayed into making a crazy move which could take a long time to recover from. 

He may end up proved right but a gamble is still a gamble even if you win. 

BBBY (Bed Bath and Beyond) is one of the classical case of "short squeeze". Short short squeeze is completely different with P&D as it is a natural reaction of people and not by a single or coordinated action by a few people pumping and dumping the stocks.

Short squeeze is not necessary a gamble for people who use the TA to analyse short squeeze case by looking into the data for instance Short interest, Utilization, Cost to borrow, Day to Cover. Again not 100% accurate but at least the odd is on your side. This is another example of the use of TA but different type of ordinary TA.

Type_45

InvesterJones said:

Type_45 said:

Biggest August percentage declines since 2015 for the S&P, Nasdaq and Dow.

https://news.sky.com/story/us-stocks-register-weakest-august-performance-in-seven-years-12686390

This August we've had strong signals on tightening by the Fed, but what happened in Aug 2015?

Haven't looked into it, but wasn't the Chinese economy in difficulty that year?

2015 also happens to be the previous Shmita year. They happen every 7 years and big things take place on them. 

2008 was the previous one to that when the GFC happened. The 1987 crash was a Shmita year.

And 2022 is a Shmita year.

InvesterJones

Type_45 said:

2015 also happens to be the previous Shmita year. They happen every 7 years and big things take place on them.

Can you explain why?