How much longer will this bear market go on for?

adindas

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

5% would be my choice for the time being too.

But how safe are the banks? What happens if your bank goes under? Do you know what a bail-in is? 

Why is it matter if the bank go under or not. Why is it matter to you if they get bail-in, allows to write-down debt owed by a bank to creditors or to convert it into equity ?  

You still get your money back as savings are FSCS protected. We have seen similar case in 2008 UK Bank rescue package.
Let alone in the current condition the UK banks have been in good shape, making a good profit with increase of interest rate.

What is your understanding of a bail-in?

What is your understanding about the very fundamental things e.g how savings in the UK are protected ?

Alistair31

Just keep investing 

Prism

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

5% would be my choice for the time being too.

But how safe are the banks? What happens if your bank goes under? Do you know what a bail-in is? 

Why is it matter if the bank go under or not. Why is it matter to you if they get bail-in, allows to write-down debt owed by a bank to creditors or to convert it into equity ?  

You still get your money back as savings are FSCS protected. We have seen similar case in 2008 UK Bank rescue package.
Let alone in the current condition the UK banks have been in good shape, making a good profit with increase of interest rate.

What is your understanding of a bail-in?

Stay under the FSCS limits and you can ignore bail in.

Type_45

If and when such a thing happens in the UK there would be a run on the banks.

And you think there's enough FSCS money to protect everyone?

Prism

Type_45 said:

If and when such a thing happens in the UK there would be a run on the banks.

And you think there's enough FSCS money to protect everyone?

Absolutely not as if that was to happen then there would likely be lots of issues with insurance companies and other financial institutions. However the treasury is able to loan to the FSCS, nationalize banks, print money etc. So sure, if something happens that is considerably worse than the GFC, even though the banks are in a much more healthy state, then we may all lose our money while the government collapses. I'm sure it will happen some day

Type_45

Prism said:

Type_45 said:

If and when such a thing happens in the UK there would be a run on the banks.

And you think there's enough FSCS money to protect everyone?

Absolutely not as if that was to happen then there would likely be lots of issues with insurance companies and other financial institutions. However the treasury is able to loan to the FSCS, nationalize banks, print money etc. So sure, if something happens that is considerably worse than the GFC, even though the banks are in a much more healthy state, then we may all lose our money while the government collapses. I'm sure it will happen some day

What's all this "we" lose all our money?  I won't.

And I doubt the government will collapse.  It will blame something external and more than likely impose lockdowns or something similar "for our safety".

masonic

Type_45 said:

If and when such a thing happens in the UK there would be a run on the banks.

And you think there's enough FSCS money to protect everyone?

Why speculate about what would happen when the FSCS has already been in a situation during 2008 where it had to pay out £20.9bn in compensation, £20bn of that freshly printed by the Treasury and lent to the FSCS. It took the FSCS 12 years to repay the loan through recoveries from the failing banks and increased levies on financial institutions. The Treasury can create an unlimited supply of money to back the FSCS and would do so. Anyone under the compensation limit will not lose a nominal penny. The consequences of creating the money will be spread between all those who hold GBP and sterling denominated bonds.

I suppose one of the benefits of driving half the population into poverty this winter is that there will be less demand on the FSCS from savers when your 80% crash happens and the financial system comes crashing down

Alistair31

Type_45 said:

Prism said:

Type_45 said:

If and when such a thing happens in the UK there would be a run on the banks.

And you think there's enough FSCS money to protect everyone?

Absolutely not as if that was to happen then there would likely be lots of issues with insurance companies and other financial institutions. However the treasury is able to loan to the FSCS, nationalize banks, print money etc. So sure, if something happens that is considerably worse than the GFC, even though the banks are in a much more healthy state, then we may all lose our money while the government collapses. I'm sure it will happen some day

What's all this "we" lose all our money?  I won't.

Nothing left to lose?

Type_45

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

If and when such a thing happens in the UK there would be a run on the banks.

And you think there's enough FSCS money to protect everyone?

Why speculate about what would happen when the FSCS has already been in a situation during 2008 where it had to pay out £20.9bn in compensation, £20bn of that freshly printed by the Treasury and lent to the FSCS. It took the FSCS 12 years to repay the loan through recoveries from the failing banks and increased levies on financial institutions. The Treasury can create an unlimited supply of money to back the FSCS and would do so. Anyone under the compensation limit will not lose a nominal penny. The consequences of creating the money will be spread between all those who hold GBP and sterling denominated bonds.

I suppose one of the benefits of driving half the population into poverty this winter is that there will be less demand on the FSCS from savers when your 80% crash happens and the financial system comes crashing down

Because I don't believe the governments (UK & US) can print their way out of what's coming.  I think they've shot their bolt.  This crash will be bigger (IMO) than GFC and Covid.  There will be no choice but to feel the pain, take the medicine, and spend many years playing catch up.

Our leaders and banksters making catastrophic policy errors, only to be bailed out and carry on as they were in a broken financial system, cannot carry on much longer.

When it all comes crashing down all bets are off.  And even if your money is FSCS protected, what would its spending power be like on the other side of this crash?  It could be greatly devalued.  And would be devalued even under your flawless plan of just printing another £trillion to fix the latest crisis.  

masonic

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

If and when such a thing happens in the UK there would be a run on the banks.

And you think there's enough FSCS money to protect everyone?

Why speculate about what would happen when the FSCS has already been in a situation during 2008 where it had to pay out £20.9bn in compensation, £20bn of that freshly printed by the Treasury and lent to the FSCS. It took the FSCS 12 years to repay the loan through recoveries from the failing banks and increased levies on financial institutions. The Treasury can create an unlimited supply of money to back the FSCS and would do so. Anyone under the compensation limit will not lose a nominal penny. The consequences of creating the money will be spread between all those who hold GBP and sterling denominated bonds.

I suppose one of the benefits of driving half the population into poverty this winter is that there will be less demand on the FSCS from savers when your 80% crash happens and the financial system comes crashing down

Because I don't believe the governments (UK & US) can print their way out of what's coming.  I think they've shot their bolt.  This crash will be bigger (IMO) than GFC and Covid.  There will be no choice but to feel the pain, take the medicine, and spend many years playing catch up.

Our leaders and banksters making catastrophic policy errors, only to be bailed out and carry on as they were in a broken financial system, cannot carry on much longer.

When it all comes crashing down all bets are off.  And even if your money is FSCS protected, what would its spending power be like on the other side of this crash?  It could be greatly devalued.  And would be devalued even under your flawless plan of just printing another £trillion to fix the latest crisis.  

It's not my plan. I don't get to decide anything. It's highly unlikely any bank will come under pressure and require FSCS intervention. I can understand that some people have no living memory of high inflation or recession, and perhaps their worried mind would get the better of them. If I bought into your vision of economic collapse in the slightest I wouldn't be deluded enough to think I can escape the consequences by buying some cryptocurrency and shiny metals. Things are going to get pretty grim in the real world, holding some cash within reason for short term use is a sensible course of action. It is never a good idea to use cash as a long-term investment.