How much longer will this bear market go on for?

masonic

InvesterJones said:

Type_45 said:

I think we may have seen the top of this rally.

Given the Fed has made it clear it won't pivot anytime soon I think we will see a sell-off heading into the autumn/winter which will take us below the June lows. 

Now that is more like it, well done @Type_45 for using much more realistic and considerate language. More like this please!

I hope you enjoyed it while it lasted

Type_45

The scenario I described would see a 30%-40% correction into the autumn from the top at the start of the year. And there's still the crash and depression to follow.

A 50% correction is standard fare in recessions. What's happening now is far bigger.

The Baltic Dry Index (shipping of raw materials around the world) hit a new low last week, which is a leading indicator. The real economy is imploding. Housing market is rolling over. China's economy on verge of collapse. USA and China falling into deep recession/depression simultaneously.

The next few months will be very interesting.

Type_45

I was looking last night at energy ETFs. One of them has gained 80%+ this year.

But I guess those gains will be handed back when the global recession and slow down kicks in. 

sevenhills

Type_45 said:

The Baltic Dry Index (shipping of raw materials around the world) hit a new low last week, which is a leading indicator. The real economy is imploding. Housing market is rolling over. China's economy on verge of collapse. USA and China falling into deep recession/depression simultaneously.

I have never heard of the Baltic Dry index.
Baltic Dry Index is reported daily by the Baltic Exchange in London. The index provides a benchmark for the price of moving the major raw materials by sea. 
It's lower after a large increase, which is good?

adindas

Type_45 said:

The Baltic Dry Index (shipping of raw materials around the world) hit a new low last week, which is a leading indicator. The real economy is imploding. Housing market is rolling over. China's economy on verge of collapse. USA and China falling into deep recession/depression simultaneously.

The next few months will be very interesting.

Not necessarily. Biside both BDI (Baltic Dry Index), the Baltic Cape Index (BCI) also look what other smaller vessels are doing in transporting Dry Goods.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/198752-why-is-baltic-dry-index-falling-if-world-is-recovering

"In contrast, smaller vessels, the Panamax, Supramax, and Handimax size ships, have been in far greater demand. Their indexes, the BPI, BSI, and BHI respectively, have performed far better than the BDI and BCI"

The Baltic Dry Index
https://www.learningmarkets.com/understanding-the-baltic-dry-index/

Type_45

SPX will start at -1% today.

masonic

Type_45 said:

The scenario I described would see a 30%-40% correction into the autumn from the top at the start of the year.

But but but, that's less than half what you said definitely would happen this year.

Type_45 said:

A 50% correction is standard fare in recessions. What's happening now is far bigger.

The median pulldown of the last 10 recessions is only about 25%.

Alistair31

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

The scenario I described would see a 30%-40% correction into the autumn from the top at the start of the year.

But but but, that's less than half what you said definitely would happen this year.

Type_45 said:

A 50% correction is standard fare in recessions. What's happening now is far bigger.

The median pulldown of the last 10 recessions is only about 25%.

Never let the truth get in the way of a good story. 

Type_45

1973-74: 54%

2000-03: 48%
2009-10: 50%

And none of those were depressions.

Type_45

SPX to open below 4000?