How much longer will this bear market go on for?

MiserlyMartin

I think we need to be very worried about hyperinflation and the sinking £. I've bought a bit of gold silver etfs, US$ funds and some foriegn currency in case the doo-doo hits the fan next year even more.

MiserlyMartin

Type_45 said:

1% in a savings account will seem like a sweet deal when the market rolls over.

While I agree with what you are saying some of my shares are up 50% in the past month. I only regret not buying much more of them

Type_45

MiserlyMartin said:

I think we need to be very worried about hyperinflation and the sinking £. I've bought a bit of gold silver etfs, US$ funds and some foriegn currency in case the doo-doo hits the fan next year even more.

Which ones and why?

Type_45

MiserlyMartin said:

Type_45 said:

1% in a savings account will seem like a sweet deal when the market rolls over.

While I agree with what you are saying some of my shares are up 50% in the past month. I only regret not buying much more of them

Congratulations.  What is up 50%?

adindas

Michael121 said:

adindas said:

I'm confused. This indicator doesn't work in the 70s, yes a new high was put in but it was short lived and then plunged. Also 70yr indicator is irrelevant. 

adindas said:

Sea_Shell said:

Steve182 said:

Apparently we can expect the answer any day now.....

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-technical-indicator-that-always-calls-the-end-of-bear-markets

If that article was written on the Morning of the 12th, and they were waiting for the S&P500 to go through 4231, then note, it closed at 4280.

So lets see what happens to the markets this coming week/month!!!!

Although that level of 4231 has been crossed, and based on that prediction, the bear market is confirmed is over, it does not mean that there will be no more pull back, go lower than the market closed at 4280 or even 4231. Pull back, going zigzag is inherent feature of the market when there is an overbought. Also because the stock market has never gone up in the straight line in the history. But what it should not do if that prediction is correct is to go lower than the bottom we saw in June 2022. If it ever goes down again below the June bottom in the near future than that prediction is wrong.

I personally believe in Technical Analysis (TA) as I have personally been using it to make decision for sometimes now especially to identify the overbought and oversold zones looking into the price and volume action. Just remember there is no TA with 100% accuracy. But also remember, you do not need to get 100% right, you just need 50%+ right to start making money using that tool. But as usual, we take our own gain but we also take our own loss. Try and backtest yourself and make your own conclusion.

If that TA prediction is correct it does not mean there will be no pull back again what it shall not do is to go lower than the bottom in June 2022. If it ever goes down again below the June bottom in the near future than that TA prediction fail to predict this recent bear market.

Sofar the Fibonacci 50% retracement level has been good to call the bottom of the bear market in the past. The history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhythms. It will not necessary rhythm this time, also it is still too early to judge it in this recent bear market.

A few links refer to that TA.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-technical-indicator-that-always-calls-the-end-of-bear-markets

https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2022/08/this-chart-proves-that-the-bear-market-is-likely-over/

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-stock-market-bulls-are-obsessed-with-the-4-231-level-for-the-s-p-500-11660309355

https://alpes-holidays.com/why-bulls-looking-for-a-stock-market-bottom-are-obsessed-with-4231-on-the-sp-500/ (This article originally come from Morningstar which has disappeared now)

InvesterJones

Type_45 said:

MiserlyMartin said:

Type_45 said:

1% in a savings account will seem like a sweet deal when the market rolls over.

While I agree with what you are saying some of my shares are up 50% in the past month. I only regret not buying much more of them

Congratulations.  What is up 50%?

Only 50%? Some of my better performers have done more than that, e.g. FSLR is up something like 66% on the month, nearly 80% over six months. Of course, I only have a tiny amount but it shows the merits of diversification for us amateurs.

coastline

Sticking with data and TA, the tea leaves , here's a weekly chart looking at % of stocks below the 200 average. Washed out in June and a rally since. Doesn't mean it can't go lower but there's hope. Data way in favour of the low is in.

FacKlqSXoAYSvm- (700×421) (twimg.com)

History showing similar moves over 100 years..

FaSR_mxXgAMiGxz (764×900) (twimg.com)

Short term it's gone from oversold to overbought. On the cards now for a pause . ?

Dow Jones Industrial Average vs % of DJIA Stocks Above 50-Day Moving Average | Stock Market Indicators (indexindicators.com)

All indicators on the top they've played out very well recently..

image_thumb_3.png (605×642) (equityclock.com)

Mid term election years there's normally to drift into autumn. 1962 saw similar falls but not a retest of the lows..

FaY9dFQVsAAI6NZ (640×480) (twimg.com)

Type_45

If TA worked then people who use it would all be billionaires.

adindas

Type_45 said:

MiserlyMartin said:

Type_45 said:

1% in a savings account will seem like a sweet deal when the market rolls over.

While I agree with what you are saying some of my shares are up 50% in the past month. I only regret not buying much more of them

Congratulations.  What is up 50%?

I though someone said, he will wait until the stock market is bottoming to around 80% before he strikes ?? How on earth it could up 50% for someone who has not even started buying it because he is waiting to drop at 80%. The stock market has not even fallen below 40% level?

Type_45 said:

If TA worked then people who use it would all be billionaires.

Well because majority of people who are using TA are using their common sense. Are you aware that many people trade as little as $50/$100 per trade some are even lower than that. Also many people using that tools are not high frequency traders.

TA is not 100% accurate. Supposed such analytical tool exist, he would be the richest man on earth. It is mainly analysing the chart, Price/Volume action using statistical tools such as moving average. There are other factors that could effect the market such as fundamental of the companies, market / sector rotations, geopolitical issues, economics, black swan event, etc

Have you seen this quote and do you understand what does it mean ??

Those who do not understand this basic principle should never ever get involved in active investing. Let alone trading with leverage, derivative, futures which are very risky and will attract high fees.

Type_45

adindas said:

TA is not 100% accurate. 

I know it's not.  Otherwise you'd all be billionaires.



It's probably 5% accurate.  If that.