How much longer will this bear market go on for?

Alistair31

Type_45 said:

Stargunner said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

Michael Burry has liquidated his entire portfolio except for one stock. Perhaps he's since liquidated that too.

We don't need to know what Michael Burry is doing. It's not as though his predictions come true like clockwork. It would be far more interesting to get an update on the Type_45 portfolio.

Keeping it quiet as I don't want to spook the markets.

More like you don’t want to admit to everyone of the recent equity rally that you have missed out on whilst sitting with your big pile of cash 

I see us as allies. I will buy your bags when you want out. 

Anyone bought your bags yet? 

Type_45

Swipe said:

Type_45 said:

Stargunner said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

Michael Burry has liquidated his entire portfolio except for one stock. Perhaps he's since liquidated that too.

We don't need to know what Michael Burry is doing. It's not as though his predictions come true like clockwork. It would be far more interesting to get an update on the Type_45 portfolio.

Keeping it quiet as I don't want to spook the markets.

More like you don’t want to admit to everyone of the recent equity rally that you have missed out on whilst sitting with your big pile of cash 

I see us as allies. I will buy your bags when you want out. 

If it does tank, you'll never buy back in

I'll make my announcement when the time comes. 

masonic

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

Michael Burry has liquidated his entire portfolio except for one stock. Perhaps he's since liquidated that too.

We don't need to know what Michael Burry is doing. It's not as though his predictions come true like clockwork. It would be far more interesting to get an update on the Type_45 portfolio.

Keeping it quiet as I don't want to spook the markets.

I thought spooking the markets was your primary objective.

adindas

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon told wealthy clients there's a chance the US is heading into 'something worse' than a recession, report says Hannah Towey Sun, August 14, 2022

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-ceo-jamie-dimon-told-163049048.html

Jamie Dimon is someone's in this thread Heavy Weight Strategist.

Early June before the stock market rally the same Jamie Dimon said about "economic hurricane".  Also is has been covered widely in this thread

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2022/06/02/jamie-dimon-warns-of-a-hurricane-coming-our-way-heres-what-you-need-to-know/?sh=5deb28903591

“That hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way.” The chief executive added, “We don’t know if it’s a minor one or Superstorm Sandy. You better brace yourself"

But even Jamie Dimon believes in the hurricane (or huge recession) he never makes a claim of 80% drop in the stock market. If you read between the lines you will find his wording like this

"there's a chance"

"a minor one or Superstorm Sandy"

Well, you do not need to be an economist or strategist to write a warning like that as you will always be in the right side with your prediction.

There will always be a chance people lose their money in the stock market.

When we have experienced/seen a storm; the option of what will happen next is binary, either " minor or super" you will get 50% probability to get it right by just guessing on the either outcome. But if you said both outcomes of a binary option, your probability to get it right is 100%.

Many strategists disagree with Jamie Diamond Statement:

https://money.com/stock-market-rally-continue/

(Can Stocks Continue Their Recent Rally? 8 Experts Weigh In  Mallika Mitra Aug 09, 2022)

The most optimistic one is Oppenheimer & Co. chief investment strategist John Stoltzfus

" ... the market not only avoiding a recession but rising 40% from where it currently stands by the end of 2022"

https://fortune.com/2022/06/22/oppenheimer-strategist-john-stoltzfus-bets-market-will-avoid-recession-rally-40-percent-end-2022/

The strategists in the middle believe that if there is a recession after the mid term election it might only be a light recession before the stock market is bouncing back to all time high.

Also good to notice that the crude Oil price keep dropping, trades to a Six Month Low of around US86, one of the lowest unemployment rate in the history, inflation rate seems to be slowing down although it is still early to make a solid conclusion. Recently the US government has passed the US Inflation Reduction Act to pump $750 billion into the US economy. The US mid term election will take place in Tuesday, 8 November 2022. The party and government in power will do everything within their power to make the US economics good at least until the mid term elections is over.

Also yesterday Walmart, Home depot reported earning, beating the expectation. Both of these companies are rough indicators to see the people spending related to US housing Market as well as food/staples and daily needs in the US.

Type_45

UK inflation: Food costs push price rises to new 40-year high

Inflation hit 10.1% in the 12 months to July, up from 9.4% in June, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62562025

sevenhills

Type_45 said:

UK inflation: Food costs push price rises to new 40-year high

Inflation hit 10.1% in the 12 months to July, up from 9.4% in June, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62562025

It's 12.3% if you use the RPI inflation measure.

Prism

And its 8.8% if you use the official figure.

Type_45

And it's 20%+ in reality.

sevenhills

Prism said:

And its 8.8% if you use the official figure.

The media are not using accurate information when they say it's the highest rate in 40 years. They didn't use the CPI measure of inflation 40 years ago.

The most recent information for house price inflation, May, puts house price inflation at 12.8% up from the previous month of 11.9%
So why would CPIH be a lot lower, unless they have more updated figures and house price inflation has crashed?

InvesterJones

Type_45 said:

And it's 20%+ in reality.

Which measure gives that?

CPI is 10.1%

CPIH is 8.8%
RPI is 12.3%

Or are you talking about your personal inflation rate (such as one you can calculate at BBC: https://bbc.in/3dBDywv)