How much longer will this bear market go on for?

adindas

coastline said:

Analysis probably came from this guy. All explained below. Basically a technical crash is 20% or more fall . If the index retraces 50% or more of this fall then probability suggests the low is in. There might be a retest of the low in June but history suggests it will hold.  He mentioned this 2 years ago in another video..

The End of the Stock Bear Market Rally? - YouTube

This guy produce another new video showing on the chart that 50% Fibonacci Retracement has been crossed.
This guy and I believe the analyst who wrote in NASDAQ based his technical Analysts pattern based on Larry Williams Works. Larry Williams is an acute traders and have written more than a dozen trading books. 
His TA has been used and referred by analysts in CNBC.
That 50% Retracement have been demonstrated to have never failed  in the past bear market.
But as it has always been, history does not repeat but often rhythm. So however confidence people are, there is no guarantee, it will be repeated this time.

adindas

China’s consumer and factory data miss expectations in July Sun, Aug 14 2022
Key Points

•  Retail sales grew by 2.7% in July from a year ago, the National Bureau of Statistics said Monday. That’s well below the 5% growth forecast by a Reuters poll, and down from growth of 3.1% in June.
•  Industrial production rose by 3.8%, also missing expectations for 4.6% growth and a drop from the prior month’s 3.9% increase.
•  Investment into real estate fell at a faster pace in July than June, while investment into manufacturing slowed its pace of growth.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/15/chinas-consumer-and-factory-data-miss-expectations-in-july.html

Another one

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-retail-factory-sectors-unexpectedly-slow-july-2022-08-15/

China unexpectedly cuts key rates as economic data disappoints August 15, 2022

Let see what is the impact of this news on Chinese Stocks ADR and the Global Stock Market.

Type_45

Some good news and reassuring narrative from the CCP there which will help global investors form their strategies. I'm also keen to hear how this data is interpreted by the economists, analysts and strategists at CNBC. 

adindas

Type_45 said:

Some good news and reassuring narrative from the CCP there which will help global investors form their strategies. I'm also keen to hear how this data is interpreted by the economists, analysts and strategists at CNBC. 

Well, but I remember someone frequently quote the analysts on CNBCs are an extra light weight ??

Michael121

adindas said:

I'm confused. This indicator doesn't work in the 70s, yes a new high was put in but it was short lived and then plunged. Also 70yr indicator is irrelevant. 

GazzaBloom

Vanguard's VUSA S&P500 ETF (total return) has now crossed into positive YTD according to MorningStar, even as the S&P500 is still 11% down YTD. USD/GBP valuations has been a helpful tailwind for holders of US funds this year so far.

Fund Performance|Total Returns|Vanguard S&P 500 UCITS ETF (GBP)|ISIN:IE00B3XXRP09 (morningstar.co.uk)

If you'd been asleep for 8 months you may be wondering what all the fuss was about!

Type_45

When it goes to pot the US government won't be able to step in this time. It's already shot it's bolt. 

Type_45

More tells of problems ahead which I am sure the stock market will ignore.

The NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Index just fell off a cliff.

The largest drop ever, outside of Spring 2020 lockdowns.

Swipe

You are right, it was ignored

Type_45

Swipe said:

You are right, it was ignored

Thank you.