How much longer will this bear market go on for?

Swipe

Cus said:

Swipe said:

That's why I base it on net worth. As an example I'm £80K better off today than I was on June 13th and as most of my salary goes into my pension, only about £2K came from my pay cheque. So where did the extra money come from?

You can base it however you want to, but on this thread the point was that the market has not collapsed, it has even recovered. To make that point I would only use what was already invested imo

OK, fair point.

coyrls

Swipe said:

coyrls said:

adindas said:

coyrls said:

Yes but as Type_45 predicted both a rise (prior to a fall) and a fall, it's hard to know what would disprove his predictions in the short term.

Pay attention the last which monumental: the stock Market would tank 80%.

I think that was by the end of the year, so not disproved yet.

A 70% drop in 3 months is a pretty tall order even by 1929 standards

It wouldn't be my prediction.

Steve182

Apparently we can expect the answer any day now.....

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-technical-indicator-that-always-calls-the-end-of-bear-markets

Sea_Shell

Steve182 said:

Apparently we can expect the answer any day now.....

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-technical-indicator-that-always-calls-the-end-of-bear-markets

If that article was written on the Morning of the 12th, and they were waiting for the S&P500 to go through 4231, then note, it closed at 4280.

So lets see what happens to the markets this coming week/month!!!!

Steve182

Sea_Shell said:

Steve182 said:

Apparently we can expect the answer any day now.....

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-technical-indicator-that-always-calls-the-end-of-bear-markets

If that article was written on the Morning of the 12th, and they were waiting for the S&P500 to go through 4231, then note, it closed at 4280.

So lets see what happens to the markets this coming week/month!!!!

PUBLISHED

AUG 12, 2022 11:00AM EDT

Perhaps just the fact that it's reached that technical milestone will trigger a flurry of buying and create an upward spiral in the market?

adindas

Steve182 said:

Sea_Shell said:

Steve182 said:

Apparently we can expect the answer any day now.....

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-technical-indicator-that-always-calls-the-end-of-bear-markets

If that article was written on the Morning of the 12th, and they were waiting for the S&P500 to go through 4231, then note, it closed at 4280.

So lets see what happens to the markets this coming week/month!!!!

PUBLISHED

AUG 12, 2022 11:00AM EDT

Perhaps just the fact that it's reached that technical milestone will trigger a flurry of buying and create an upward spiral in the market?

Many high growth stocks have moved significantly which might indicate that people are more confident to throw money into the stock market ?? The money could come from reserve cash or people moving their money from other type of assets such as bonds.

That is why high growth stocks are called high risk high reward. Those who understand well before buying these types of stocks should understand that down 50%, 70% should not trigger a panic selling as long as the investment thesis still hold true and they are not heading to bankruptcy as when they recover they also recover quickly. Even a very good high growth stocks with high growth in revenue they could head for bankruptcy if they are running out of cash to maintain their operation.

Below is just a few of many examples of high growth stocks up 100%+ in less than two months. There are some even more than 300%. This move is very difficult to be triggered by P&D as they are not penny stocks. Also because typically there are a lot of shares outstanding (float) available.

adindas

Steve182 said:

Apparently we can expect the answer any day now.....

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-technical-indicator-that-always-calls-the-end-of-bear-markets

I am not quite sure what type of indicator that analyst is using in the article above. He is talking about US$4,231 level. S&P 500 closed at US$4,280.15 at market close 12 August 2022. The Fibonacci retracement indicators mentioned on the article above that will indicate the levels that help traders to determine critical support and resistance levels are available in many technical chartings tools.

This is what the stock market barometer Fear and Geed (F&G) Index, the VIX are showing. So it is showing fear is easing and volatility in the market keep decreasing. But as usual technical indicators are not a crystal ball, it is not 100% Accurate. Let see what other analysts / strategist are saying have they reached general consensus ?

Michael Burry, the big short call it typical Bear Market rally

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/big-short-michael-burry-consumer-recession-inflation-stock-market-rally-2022-8

Just be aware Michael Burry typically make money in the short side of the market in the declining market, so it is his best interest to keep preaching the Bear Market. This is what he said in his twit !

Steve182

I'm certainly pleased to see my SMT holding has recovered somewhat, 50% drops are always difficult to stomach, even when in your own mind you're sure it's only a matter of time.

I am tempted to sell some of my value holdings and pile the money into BG US growth which has now recovered to £1.94 from a low of £1.46 in May, having dropped from a 2021 peak of £3.52

The problem is much of my value holding is gold mining and US natural gas, both of which I'm currently very bullish on...mmmm

Steve182

Another interesting article...

https://biz.crast.net/volatility-investor-warns-of-false-dawn-for-us-stock-market/

adindas

Sea_Shell said:

Steve182 said:

Apparently we can expect the answer any day now.....

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-technical-indicator-that-always-calls-the-end-of-bear-markets

If that article was written on the Morning of the 12th, and they were waiting for the S&P500 to go through 4231, then note, it closed at 4280.

So lets see what happens to the markets this coming week/month!!!!

Although that level of 4231 has been crossed, and based on that prediction, the bear market is confirmed is over, it does not mean that there will be no more pull back, go lower than the market closed at 4280 or even 4231. Pull back, going zigzag is inherent feature of the market when there is an overbought. Also because the stock market has never gone up in the straight line in the history. But what it should not do if that prediction is correct is to go lower than the bottom we saw in June 2022. If it ever goes down again below the June bottom in the near future than that prediction is wrong.