How much longer will this bear market go on for?

Millyonare

Stockmarkets typically (but not always) rise or fall with central-bank interest rates.

* Interest rate up = stockmarket down
* Interest rate down = stockmarket up

If I can get 5% interest in a bank savings account, I will pull my money from the stockmarket.

If I can only get 1% interest in a bank savings account, I will pour my money into the stockmarket.

eskbanker

Millyonare said:

Stockmarkets typically (but not always) rise or fall with central-bank interest rates.

* Interest rate up = stockmarket down
* Interest rate down = stockmarket up

The 'not always' is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that theory!

Millyonare said:

If I can get 5% interest in a bank savings account, I will pull my money from the stockmarket.

If I can only get 1% interest in a bank savings account, I will pour my money into the stockmarket.

Each to their own, but that's a pretty bizarre strategy!  Most would invest long term money and save short term or emergency money, rather than making arbitrary decisions on rates....

DoublePolaroid

5% interest from a savings account would have to be viewed through the lens of the prevailing rate of inflation. I’m invested because I’m counting on the historical reality that equity investment will beat inflation in the long run. Money in savings accounts almost certainly won’t. 

Malthusian

sevenhills said:

Type_45 said:

And it's 20%+ in reality.

They have just reported on radio four, the Today program, a basket of goods bought in Aldi increased by 7% between July and August.

I thought Jack Monroe had already flogged that dead horse into the ground and made a month's worth of curry out of it way back at the beginning of the year.

sevenhills

Malthusian said:

I thought Jack Monroe had already flogged that dead horse into the ground and made a month's worth of curry out of it way back at the beginning of the year.

Not very scientific, I know Morrison's are now advertising no price increases in August.
A one month price freeze, big deal 🤣🤣

InvesterJones

DoublePolaroid said:

5% interest from a savings account would have to be viewed through the lens of the prevailing rate of inflation. I’m invested because I’m counting on the historical reality that equity investment will beat inflation in the long run. Money in savings accounts almost certainly won’t. 

You should also view stock market returns with the same lens though - if you make 5% from the market or 5% from savings, inflation applies equally to both (because it really applies to what you can spend those returns on, not the return itself). What you're really saying is equity investment gives a better % than savings, which is fine, but everyone is in a different place for how much risk they're happy to take for that better %, especially during any times when equities are falling and savings interest is increasing.

Type_45

1% in a savings account will seem like a sweet deal when the market rolls over.

InvesterJones

Type_45 said:

1% in a savings account will seem like a sweet deal when the market rolls over.

But you need to be in the market before then or you'll miss out on the rises, so can you tell us when exactly it will roll over so we can make sure to position accordingly? Or I guess if you're a trader then you don't want to be in cash even when that happens, you want to short.

Type_45

InvesterJones said:

Type_45 said:

1% in a savings account will seem like a sweet deal when the market rolls over.

But you need to be in the market before then or you'll miss out on the rises, so can you tell us when exactly it will roll over so we can make sure to position accordingly? Or I guess if you're a trader then you don't want to be in cash even when that happens, you want to short.

I'm a macro guy.  Big picture.  I can't be exact on dates or on the minutia of events. I don't think anyone else can either.

InvesterJones

Type_45 said:

InvesterJones said:

Type_45 said:

1% in a savings account will seem like a sweet deal when the market rolls over.

But you need to be in the market before then or you'll miss out on the rises, so can you tell us when exactly it will roll over so we can make sure to position accordingly? Or I guess if you're a trader then you don't want to be in cash even when that happens, you want to short.

I'm a macro guy.  Big picture.  I can't be exact on dates or on the minutia of events. I don't think anyone else can either.

Ah so a single day's movement is of no interest to you?