Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

masonic

Type_45 said:

What the presenter of the video says is that the market is still in "joy" mode.  And not everything is "priced in", despite what the Priced In Brigade (TM) would have us believe.

This positive sentiment about the future forms part of what is priced in. The actual future is never priced in, because nobody knows the actual future.

coastline

Straight forward video which is similar to what I've tried to post in chart form recently. It can go anywhere really between a P/E of 20 and 10. Just the same as buying individual shares which might even go to P/E 30 in a growth phase.

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Can't remember if much was said about interest rates but when bond yields and FED rates are low then stock market valuations can be a bit higher. ? 1960's is a perfect example shown below.

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Dividend yields are much lower but I think there's a different taxation method applied today ?

Slide8.png (960×720) (realinvestmentadvice.com)

Again in the 1960's when FED rates got to 4-6% that's when the trouble started and markets fell.

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Inflation figures will be out soon and will be vital to market moves. In recent days commodity prices have been falling and in some cases below the February levels during the crisis. Shock inflation below. Is history repeating itself ?

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Type_45

This is the most important graph:

InvesterJones

coastline said:

Straight forward video which is similar to what I've tried to post in chart form recently. It can go anywhere really between a P/E of 20 and 10. Just the same as buying individual shares which might even go to P/E 30 in a growth phase.

Good post, as usual. If I can add to it, the video does explain (and Pensioncraft have been saying for a while) how P/E (or CAPE) valuations falling back to longer term average accounts for the drop in the first half of this year (the removal of positive sentiment mentioned by others). But that's only half the story because it assumes earnings will hold up.

That's the great unknown at the moment. The fed wants to ensure earnings don't rise (=embedded inflation), and their actions to prevent that may cause earnings to fall, in which case for the P/E to remain, if not pessimistic, then at least less ebullient, stock prices will have to fall. This is the second half fall that leads to commentators suggesting we are only half way. Such a fall would be quite reasonable and far from a disaster scenario that a few interesting people are suggesting of course!

And it might well be that when this happens (=inflation under control) the fed loosens a bit, raising P/E and countering the fall in earnings meaning we don't have the second half dip, or not for as long.

InvesterJones

InvesterJones said:

 The fed wants to ensure earnings wages don't rise (=embedded inflation),

Second edit

Type_45

"The interest is up

And the stock market's down

And you only get mugged 

If you go downtown"

Hank Williams Jr - 1981

Swipe

Just let this thread die already

coastline

coastline said:

coastline said:

coastline said:

coastline said:

coastline said:

coastline said:

coastline said:

Sell the FTSE 100 at 7040 . Right or wrong there's plenty more to go at.

Just a little update not that anybody will be really bothered . Never mind I was asked so I'll highlight my system. Looking at the link which is not the best package the Slow Stochastic curled upwards as I explained around 6850-6900 to buy. Today we sit on the top of overbought region at 7110. Sell at 7110. Not perfect and could still go higher but 7040 down to 6900 and up again to 7110 is around 350 points.

FTSE 100 Index, UK:UKX Advanced Chart - (FTSE UK) UK:UKX, FTSE 100 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com (marketwatch.com)

You could set the same on here if anybody is interested. Good luck everyone whatever your allocations are.

ISF.L | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

DATE       BUY/SELL   FTSE   POINTS

JULY 15      SELL        7040         0
JULY 20      BUY         6900         140
AUG  5        SELL        7110         350

Buy FTSE 6830 as the system goes.

DATE       BUY/SELL   FTSE   POINTS

JULY 15      SELL        7040         0
JULY 20      BUY         6900         140
AUG  5        SELL        7110         350
SEPT 20      BUY         6830         630

Sell FTSE 7230...

Set both charts with Slow Stochastic and Williams%R from the lower indicators..Good Luck everyone.

ISF.L | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

FTSE 100 Index chart, prices and performance - Investors Chronicle


DATE       BUY/SELL   FTSE   POINTS

JULY 15      SELL        7040         0
JULY 20      BUY         6900         140
AUG  5        SELL        7110         350
SEPT 20      BUY         6830         630
OCT 15        SELL        7230        1030

Buy FTSE 7080

DATE       BUY/SELL   FTSE   POINTS

JULY 15      SELL        7040         0
JULY 20      BUY         6900         140
AUG  5        SELL        7110         350
SEPT 20      BUY         6830         630
OCT 15        SELL        7230        1030
NOV 26       BUY          7080        1180

Sell FTSE 7250.  Struggling a bit now. 

DATE       BUY/SELL   FTSE   POINTS

JULY 15      SELL        7040         0
JULY 20      BUY         6900         140
AUG  5        SELL        7110         350
SEPT 20      BUY         6830         630
OCT 15        SELL        7230        1030
NOV 26       BUY          7080        1180
DEC 17      SELL          7250        1350

I'll start again but wipe the slate clean. See if I can win just one person over . Never mind . BUY FTSE 100 at 7100.

 DATE       BUY/SELL   FTSE   POINTS
 JUNE 16      BUY         7100         0

Sell FTSE 7290

DATE       BUY/SELL   FTSE   POINTS
 JUNE 16      BUY         7100         0
 JULY   22     SELL       7290        190

renegade1

My growth stocks are up 12% since one month ago.

adindas

Important News this week:

Earning Season of mega caps companies to be reported, US-GDP to be reported that will decide whether the US economy will be official in recession, announcement of how many basis point of the interest hike in the US.