Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

InvesterJones

InvesterJones said:

Type_45 said:

InvesterJones said:

Type_45 said:

The 2y/10y Treasury yield confirms that not only is the US probably already in a recession, but that it will be a very deep recession.

Over in Taiwan, capital is fleeing TSM which is one of the most important companies in the world and which makes microchips. Michael Burry (he of The Big Short) recently tweeted that China will make a military move on Taiwan in early 2023. The US and Chinese recessions, along with anticipated CCP military moves on Taiwan appear to ve feeding the flight of capital from TSM.

Markets look green across the board today.

TSM up 5%.

It's been almost cut in half this year.

No wonder you have some 'interesting' statements This year it is down 27.5%. That is nothing like 'half', and is entirely in line with other tech stocks.

In fact it's better than the NASDAQ, which is down 28.24% this year.

GazzaBloom

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

The 2y/10y Treasury yield confirms that not only is the US probably already in a recession, but that it will be a very deep recession.

That's interesting, could you explain the reasoning behind this please, especially the 'very deep' part?

It's gone flat and there's no spread between the 2s and 10s. This is the bond market being incredibly pessimistic. It has no belief right now that the USA's economy will grow. They will accept the same amount of yield two years out as 10 years out. 

It's very bearish and it has an almost perfect track record of forecasting recessions.

The US is already in a recession, it just hasn't been officially anointed yet.

So we can either take action, or we can ignore this and carry on as normal.

Do you not think that there may just be other people out there, some perhaps managing billions of £$$ of investors money, that may just have come to their own conclusions on the future global economic outlook and already positioned investments accordingly? Or do you think they are likely to be seismically shocked by your unique insight?

Type_45

InvesterJones said:

Type_45 said:

InvesterJones said:

Type_45 said:

The 2y/10y Treasury yield confirms that not only is the US probably already in a recession, but that it will be a very deep recession.

Over in Taiwan, capital is fleeing TSM which is one of the most important companies in the world and which makes microchips. Michael Burry (he of The Big Short) recently tweeted that China will make a military move on Taiwan in early 2023. The US and Chinese recessions, along with anticipated CCP military moves on Taiwan appear to ve feeding the flight of capital from TSM.

Markets look green across the board today.

TSM up 5%.

It's been almost cut in half this year.

No wonder you have some 'interesting' statements This year it is down 27.5%. That is nothing like 'half', and is entirely in line with other tech stocks.

That's not TSM.

TSM has almost halved this year.  I even took the trouble to provide you with the graph, which you can still view on the previous page.

george4064

Type_45 said:

InvesterJones said:

Type_45 said:

InvesterJones said:

Type_45 said:

The 2y/10y Treasury yield confirms that not only is the US probably already in a recession, but that it will be a very deep recession.

Over in Taiwan, capital is fleeing TSM which is one of the most important companies in the world and which makes microchips. Michael Burry (he of The Big Short) recently tweeted that China will make a military move on Taiwan in early 2023. The US and Chinese recessions, along with anticipated CCP military moves on Taiwan appear to ve feeding the flight of capital from TSM.

Markets look green across the board today.

TSM up 5%.

It's been almost cut in half this year.

No wonder you have some 'interesting' statements This year it is down 27.5%. That is nothing like 'half', and is entirely in line with other tech stocks.

That's not TSM.

TSM has almost halved this year.  I even took the trouble to provide you with the graph, which you can still view on the previous page.

1 year =/= YTD.

Type_45

george4064 said:

Type_45 said:

InvesterJones said:

Type_45 said:

InvesterJones said:

Type_45 said:

The 2y/10y Treasury yield confirms that not only is the US probably already in a recession, but that it will be a very deep recession.

Over in Taiwan, capital is fleeing TSM which is one of the most important companies in the world and which makes microchips. Michael Burry (he of The Big Short) recently tweeted that China will make a military move on Taiwan in early 2023. The US and Chinese recessions, along with anticipated CCP military moves on Taiwan appear to ve feeding the flight of capital from TSM.

Markets look green across the board today.

TSM up 5%.

It's been almost cut in half this year.

No wonder you have some 'interesting' statements This year it is down 27.5%. That is nothing like 'half', and is entirely in line with other tech stocks.

That's not TSM.

TSM has almost halved this year.  I even took the trouble to provide you with the graph, which you can still view on the previous page.

1 year =/= YTD.

I posted the graph on the previous page.

TSM has halved this year. Within 2022. YTD. Since January 2022. 


Here is the graph again:

Type_45

GazzaBloom said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

The 2y/10y Treasury yield confirms that not only is the US probably already in a recession, but that it will be a very deep recession.

That's interesting, could you explain the reasoning behind this please, especially the 'very deep' part?

It's gone flat and there's no spread between the 2s and 10s. This is the bond market being incredibly pessimistic. It has no belief right now that the USA's economy will grow. They will accept the same amount of yield two years out as 10 years out. 

It's very bearish and it has an almost perfect track record of forecasting recessions.

The US is already in a recession, it just hasn't been officially anointed yet.

So we can either take action, or we can ignore this and carry on as normal.

Do you not think that there may just be other people out there, some perhaps managing billions of £$$ of investors money, that may just have come to their own conclusions on the future global economic outlook and already positioned investments accordingly? Or do you think they are likely to be seismically shocked by your unique insight?

I think fund managers can see the 2yr/10yr and all the other signs of where things are going and they are slowly pulling out of the market. Hence the downward trend. They can't pull it all out at once because they will lose money.

Prism

Type_45 said:

I posted the graph on the previous page.

TSM has halved this year. Within 2022. YTD. Since January 2022. 


Here is the graph again:

At least try and get the detail correct, even if your point is valid

-39%  YTD is not half, which for the sake of clarity is -50%

Type_45

Prism said:

Type_45 said:

I posted the graph on the previous page.

TSM has halved this year. Within 2022. YTD. Since January 2022. 


Here is the graph again:

At least try and get the detail correct, even if your point is valid

-39%  YTD is not half, which for the sake of clarity is -50%

I've said above that it's "almost half".  


The high was 140.66 and it's now 75.56.  So my rough calculation is a 46.3% drop peak to trough this year.

renegade1

The FTSE 100 has now corrected itself since that drop on Tuesday. Wonder if it'll finish the week on a high note.

masonic

Type_45 said:

GazzaBloom said:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

The 2y/10y Treasury yield confirms that not only is the US probably already in a recession, but that it will be a very deep recession.

That's interesting, could you explain the reasoning behind this please, especially the 'very deep' part?

It's gone flat and there's no spread between the 2s and 10s. This is the bond market being incredibly pessimistic. It has no belief right now that the USA's economy will grow. They will accept the same amount of yield two years out as 10 years out. 

It's very bearish and it has an almost perfect track record of forecasting recessions.

The US is already in a recession, it just hasn't been officially anointed yet.

So we can either take action, or we can ignore this and carry on as normal.

Do you not think that there may just be other people out there, some perhaps managing billions of £$$ of investors money, that may just have come to their own conclusions on the future global economic outlook and already positioned investments accordingly? Or do you think they are likely to be seismically shocked by your unique insight?

I think fund managers can see the 2yr/10yr and all the other signs of where things are going and they are slowly pulling out of the market. Hence the downward trend. They can't pull it all out at once because they will lose money.

A simpler explanation is that the yield curve reflects an expectation of more dovish interest rate policy, which could be explained by either inflation or GDP (or both) falling). US core inflation is falling, so there isn't necessarily anything more to read into that data. The trend in S&P500 over the last 5 days has been upward.