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Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

Type_45
Posts: 1,723 Forumite

How connected are national economies, and indeed the global economy, with the international stock markets?
I've heard it said that the stock market does not reflect the economy.
Additionally, wealthy people and institutions, including pensions etc, have to put their money somewhere, so this will presumably mean that stock markets will always have investors and will ultimately keep going up.
Disclaimer: this is notwithstanding the fact that Lloyds, BlackRock and other financial institutions are buying up residential properties at a rate of knots, which perhaps doesn't bode well for the stock market going forward...
I've heard it said that the stock market does not reflect the economy.
Additionally, wealthy people and institutions, including pensions etc, have to put their money somewhere, so this will presumably mean that stock markets will always have investors and will ultimately keep going up.
Disclaimer: this is notwithstanding the fact that Lloyds, BlackRock and other financial institutions are buying up residential properties at a rate of knots, which perhaps doesn't bode well for the stock market going forward...
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Type_45 said:
Additionally, wealthy people and institutions, including pensions etc, have to put their money somewhere, so this will presumably mean that stock markets will always have investors and will ultimately keep going up.Investments are international these days, perhaps low world interest rates have pushed up stock markets?A crash often has an element of confidence, so once there is a small move downwards, people will get nervous. There seems to be more talk of a crash in recent weeks/months, but the employment rate is kept low by furlough, it's still people not working though.
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I've heard it said that the stock market does not reflect the economy.
Correct. Markets have crashed during positive economic periods and grown during negative economic periods.
I am an Independent Financial Adviser (IFA). The comments I make are just my opinion and are for discussion purposes only. They are not financial advice and you should not treat them as such. If you feel an area discussed may be relevant to you, then please seek advice from an Independent Financial Adviser local to you.5 -
dunstonh said:I've heard it said that the stock market does not reflect the economy.
Correct. Markets have crashed during positive economic periods and grown during negative economic periods.
Remember the saying: if it looks too good to be true it almost certainly is.1 -
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Type_45 said:I've heard it said that the stock market does not reflect the economy.Certainly true when talking about the short term but not so true when talking about the long term.Type_45 said:Additionally, wealthy people and institutions, including pensions etc, have to put their money somewhere, so this will presumably mean that stock markets will always have investors and will ultimately keep going up.2
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Type_45 said:0
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The stock market seems to just be a reflection of how the future of the economy is perceived. So, because people thought covid 19 would blow over after a vaccine it rebounded pretty quickly.
Which reminds me of one of my old bosses. He told me once that his girlfriend accused him of cheating, and that he had said to her "Prove it, you haven't got any evidence!" Strangely, this did not convince her. Perception is everything.Think first of your goal, then make it happen!1 -
Sometimes there is very little correlation between the performance of an economy and that country's stock market.
A few months ago I compared growth of US economy, UK economy and Chinese economy over the past decade using worldbank data to see how they compared.
Compound economic growth from start 2010 to end 2019 -
UK 20.3%
USA 25.3%
China 109.6%
Over that period the Shanghai composite and FTSE100 basically went nowhere. Other UK indices faired somewhat better, but were hardly spectacular compared with the S & P 500, which tripled in value during that period despite fairly mundane economic growth.
So my conclusion is there is sometimes no correlation!
“Like a bunch of cod fishermen after all the cod’s been overfished, they don’t catch a lot of cod, but they keep on fishing in the same waters. That’s what’s happened to all these value investors. Maybe they should move to where the fish are.” Charlie Munger, vice chairman, Berkshire Hathaway3 -
Steve182 said:Sometimes there is very little correlation between the performance of an economy and that country's stock market.
A few months ago I compared growth of US economy, UK economy and Chinese economy over the past decade using worldbank data to see how they compared.
Compound economic growth from start 2010 to end 2019 -
UK 20.3%
USA 25.3%
China 109.6%
Over that period the Shanghai composite and FTSE100 basically went nowhere. Other UK indices faired somewhat better, but were hardly spectacular compared with the S & P 500, which tripled in value during that period despite fairly mundane economic growth.
So my conclusion is there is sometimes no correlation!1 -
The FTSE 100 and all share were down 1.9% on Friday, is there a reason for that?I didn't see any news reports, maybe a result of a weaker government after their loss of Chesham and Amersham?
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