Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

beavere38

Dow Jones weekly chart showing an upward wedge formation 

beavere38

Dow transports down 8.6% from the high 

Type_45

What are you invested in, and what actions have you taken with your own investments regarding this information you are presenting?

beavere38

I don't own any stocks and I would not buy any at the moment based on my observations. This could be a smallish correction or just the start of something much bigger (Or I could be completely wrong of course). I've sold one property I owned and another is SSTC now so hoping to complete on that quickly. That just leaves me my own home. I believe cash is best right now. I can buy properties / stock at a discount later if I am correct. I can't short bitcoin but am shorting Tesla and the indicies.

Notepad_Phil

sevenhills said:

The FTSE 100 and all share were down 1.9% on Friday, is there a reason for that?

I didn't see any news reports, maybe a result of a weaker government after their loss of Chesham and Amersham?

Not a UK only problem as there was a raft of similarish falls across many parts of the globe.  The more UK focused FTSE 250 fell less than the more global FTSE 100  - but I wouldn't take a 1 day difference as any indication of thoughts about the relative strengths and weaknesses of the UK government.

Type_45

beavere38 said:

I don't own any stocks and I would not buy any at the moment based on my observations. This could be a smallish correction or just the start of something much bigger (Or I could be completely wrong of course). I've sold one property I owned and another is SSTC now so hoping to complete on that quickly. That just leaves me my own home. I believe cash is best right now. I can buy properties / stock at a discount later if I am correct. I can't short bitcoin but am shorting Tesla and the indicies.

Each to their own, but I'd have thought that property is the safest bet right now. 

Why do you think Lloyds and BlackRock are buying up residential homes en masse right now? 

coyrls

beavere38 said:

This could be a smallish correction or just the start of something much bigger (Or I could be completely wrong of course).

Yes, it will be one of those three options I expect.

Type_45

coyrls said:

beavere38 said:

This could be a smallish correction or just the start of something much bigger (Or I could be completely wrong of course).

Yes, it will be one of those three options I expect.

👍. He's gonna look like a genius no matter what happens!

beavere38

Type_45 said:

coyrls said:

beavere38 said:

This could be a smallish correction or just the start of something much bigger (Or I could be completely wrong of course).

Yes, it will be one of those three options I expect.

👍. He's gonna look like a genius no matter what happens!

I'm not here to look good or like a genius. I just thought I would share what I am seeing. Please do your own due diligence and make your own mind up. If anyone can show me a single chart that looks bullish for stocks I would love to see it? I do believe this is going to be a big crash and there are an awful lot of reasons for that. One reason is the ridiculous amount of margin debt. A small sell off on the stock market could trigger a massive crash with margin calls fuelling the rapid decline. I borrowed this chart from here: Stock Market Leverage Spikes in Historic Manner: Another !!!!!! Chart of a Zoo that Has Gone Nuts | Wolf Street 

beavere38

Type_45 said:

beavere38 said:

I don't own any stocks and I would not buy any at the moment based on my observations. This could be a smallish correction or just the start of something much bigger (Or I could be completely wrong of course). I've sold one property I owned and another is SSTC now so hoping to complete on that quickly. That just leaves me my own home. I believe cash is best right now. I can buy properties / stock at a discount later if I am correct. I can't short bitcoin but am shorting Tesla and the indicies.

Each to their own, but I'd have thought that property is the safest bet right now. 

Why do you think Lloyds and BlackRock are buying up residential homes en masse right now? 

I don't think property is the right vessel for capital preservation right now. A major stock market crash is going to cause house prices to drop on its own. The free stimulus money (furlough etc) is coming to a halt. Many businesses are going to the wall and more will do so over the coming months. Rising unemployment coupled with rising interest rates for mortgages will mean house prices have to drop. If you look at the psychology of a market top, the last pop higher before the crash is often fuelled by private investors using leverage and I am seeing just that now with people who have limited funds desperately trying to jump onto the property gravy train using all manner of crazy schemes. Lloyds and BlackRock are closest to the money source so benefit the most, borrow at maybe 1% and get 5 to 7% rental return from the property portfolio, they are happy to cream off 4 to 6% profit.