Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

sevenhills

My share holding is up 3% today(as I hold Morrisons shares), I have surprise £900+ SIPP Contribution Claim, as I don't keep track of the tax claims, I may wait and consider what to invest in.

eskbanker

sevenhills said:

NIKKIE 225 down 3% today

Type_45 said:

Hold on to your hats!

....and all the main European indices are up this morning, so you can let go of your hats again!

Type_45

Black Tuesday tomorrow.

Hexane

Type_45 said:

Black Tuesday tomorrow.

Jam tomorrow!

barnstar2077

Hexane said:

Type_45 said:

Black Tuesday tomorrow.

Jam tomorrow!

and jam yesterday!

Type_45

beavere38 said:

Type_45 said:

beavere38 said:

Type_45 said:

beavere38 said:

Type_45 said:

I still don't understand why you'd sell your properties. Why not just rent them out?

And you've no doubt had to pay CGT etc on them.

I inherited both properties recently. If you search for threads by me you will see me asking questions on here about probate last year. Renting them out was an option but I believe a house price crash is coming hence I am selling and no CGT to pay. Regarding the moving averages, well this is an early warning that something is wrong very close to the top so obviously everything is above all the averages at the moment. I would rather be aware near the top than half way down to the bottom.

Fair enough.  You've played your hand by going into cash.  Let's see how the next few months/year plays out.

Everyone has an opinion, that's what makes the markets work. Always remember that everything is cyclical, you need a bust before the next boom. This includes the housing market and stocks. W.D. Gann placed great importance on the 90 year cycle which suggests a major crash is due - we are now just over 91 years on from Black Monday in 1929. I will check back next week and see where we are at then.

You think the crash is next week?

I think next week we will see some heavy selling pressure based on every Index breaking through the support lines shown in my charts. I'm not going to try and predict exactly what will happen. Could we have another Black Monday on Monday 21st June 2021, 91 years after the last one? Who knows but we will find out in due course.

We have now found out.  And the answer is no, we didn't have a Black Monday on Monday 21 June 2021.

Black Tuesday tomorrow?  Or Black Wednesday?  Perhaps.

beavere38

"Black Tuesday tomorrow?  Or Black Wednesday?  Perhaps."

Who knows, I'm not going to try and predict exactly what will happen. I still believe the top is in on the markets. If the Dow, FTSE and Dax make new highs then I am wrong. The market is massively overvalued and full of private investors using an unprecedented amount of margin. Valuations are based on potential future earnings. What could possibly go wrong? 

It is sounding like 1929 all over again. Once the first domino falls the rest will follow.

Thrugelmir

beavere38 said:

Valuations are based on potential future earnings. What could possibly go wrong? 

That's the way the stock market works. Some valuations are more challenging others. There's always fair value somewhere in the market. 

Type_45

beavere38 said:

"Black Tuesday tomorrow?  Or Black Wednesday?  Perhaps."

Who knows, I'm not going to try and predict exactly what will happen. I still believe the top is in on the markets. If the Dow, FTSE and Dax make new highs then I am wrong. The market is massively overvalued and full of private investors using an unprecedented amount of margin. Valuations are based on potential future earnings. What could possibly go wrong? 

It is sounding like 1929 all over again. Once the first domino falls the rest will follow.

How do you know that governments won't just keep printing money and kick the can down the road?   

When money is printed it goes into the stock market, as you can see over the past 14 months of rises.

Nebulous2

Type_45 said:

beavere38 said:

"Black Tuesday tomorrow?  Or Black Wednesday?  Perhaps."

Who knows, I'm not going to try and predict exactly what will happen. I still believe the top is in on the markets. If the Dow, FTSE and Dax make new highs then I am wrong. The market is massively overvalued and full of private investors using an unprecedented amount of margin. Valuations are based on potential future earnings. What could possibly go wrong? 

It is sounding like 1929 all over again. Once the first domino falls the rest will follow.

How do you know that governments won't just keep printing money and kick the can down the road?   

When money is printed it goes into the stock market, as you can see over the past 14 months of rises.

Only some of it has gone into the stock market. A tremendous amount of it has gone into people's pockets / bank accounts. Where it goes from there is a bit of an unknown and that uncertainty means valuing stocks is more difficult at the moment.

I'm seeing indications that my acquaintances are prepared to spend more than I would have expected.