Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

Thrugelmir

Type_45 said:

Thrugelmir said:

Type_45 said:

beavere38 said:

"Black Tuesday tomorrow?  Or Black Wednesday?  Perhaps."

Who knows, I'm not going to try and predict exactly what will happen. I still believe the top is in on the markets. If the Dow, FTSE and Dax make new highs then I am wrong. The market is massively overvalued and full of private investors using an unprecedented amount of margin. Valuations are based on potential future earnings. What could possibly go wrong? 

It is sounding like 1929 all over again. Once the first domino falls the rest will follow.

How do you know that governments won't just keep printing money and kick the can down the road?   

When money is printed it goes into the stock market, as you can see over the past 14 months of rises.

All eyes are on the Fed. First indications that tapering is coming under consideration. When the Fed moves impacting the $, there's going to be a ripple effect. Interest rate rises are on the horizon also. 

People have been saying that since 2009.

There wasn't a pandemic though in 2009. 

SouthCoastBoy

There has been a massive increase in the circultaion of money supply, intended so by the central banks. People have been given money without producing anything (through furlough) this has meant there is more money chasing fewer goods, generally this will lead to inflation, as is being currently noted, the actual inflation rate is a moot point, but I think it is agreed it is increasing. Generally to discourage people spending money and increase the propensity to save interest rates rise, however currently the BoE want to encourage spending to encourage GDP growth, this is fine in the short term but if inflation is not of a temporary nature and costs get out of control interest rates will need to increase.

Type_45

Thrugelmir said:

Type_45 said:

Thrugelmir said:

Type_45 said:

beavere38 said:

"Black Tuesday tomorrow?  Or Black Wednesday?  Perhaps."

Who knows, I'm not going to try and predict exactly what will happen. I still believe the top is in on the markets. If the Dow, FTSE and Dax make new highs then I am wrong. The market is massively overvalued and full of private investors using an unprecedented amount of margin. Valuations are based on potential future earnings. What could possibly go wrong? 

It is sounding like 1929 all over again. Once the first domino falls the rest will follow.

How do you know that governments won't just keep printing money and kick the can down the road?   

When money is printed it goes into the stock market, as you can see over the past 14 months of rises.

All eyes are on the Fed. First indications that tapering is coming under consideration. When the Fed moves impacting the $, there's going to be a ripple effect. Interest rate rises are on the horizon also. 

People have been saying that since 2009.

There wasn't a pandemic though in 2009. 

There isn't one one now.

NedS

Type_45 said:

Thrugelmir said:

Type_45 said:

Thrugelmir said:

Type_45 said:

beavere38 said:

"Black Tuesday tomorrow?  Or Black Wednesday?  Perhaps."

Who knows, I'm not going to try and predict exactly what will happen. I still believe the top is in on the markets. If the Dow, FTSE and Dax make new highs then I am wrong. The market is massively overvalued and full of private investors using an unprecedented amount of margin. Valuations are based on potential future earnings. What could possibly go wrong? 

It is sounding like 1929 all over again. Once the first domino falls the rest will follow.

How do you know that governments won't just keep printing money and kick the can down the road?   

When money is printed it goes into the stock market, as you can see over the past 14 months of rises.

All eyes are on the Fed. First indications that tapering is coming under consideration. When the Fed moves impacting the $, there's going to be a ripple effect. Interest rate rises are on the horizon also. 

People have been saying that since 2009.

There wasn't a pandemic though in 2009. 

There isn't one one now.

Luckily you don't get to decide that

grumiofoundation

NedS said:

Type_45 said:

Thrugelmir said:

Type_45 said:

Thrugelmir said:

Type_45 said:

beavere38 said:

"Black Tuesday tomorrow?  Or Black Wednesday?  Perhaps."

Who knows, I'm not going to try and predict exactly what will happen. I still believe the top is in on the markets. If the Dow, FTSE and Dax make new highs then I am wrong. The market is massively overvalued and full of private investors using an unprecedented amount of margin. Valuations are based on potential future earnings. What could possibly go wrong? 

It is sounding like 1929 all over again. Once the first domino falls the rest will follow.

How do you know that governments won't just keep printing money and kick the can down the road?   

When money is printed it goes into the stock market, as you can see over the past 14 months of rises.

All eyes are on the Fed. First indications that tapering is coming under consideration. When the Fed moves impacting the $, there's going to be a ripple effect. Interest rate rises are on the horizon also. 

People have been saying that since 2009.

There wasn't a pandemic though in 2009. 

There isn't one one now.

Luckily you don't get to decide that

I think they will want someone who knows more than them (some might say seems like an easy search...) to confirm that for them actually. 

Type_45

NedS said:

Type_45 said:

Thrugelmir said:

Type_45 said:

Thrugelmir said:

Type_45 said:

beavere38 said:

"Black Tuesday tomorrow?  Or Black Wednesday?  Perhaps."

Who knows, I'm not going to try and predict exactly what will happen. I still believe the top is in on the markets. If the Dow, FTSE and Dax make new highs then I am wrong. The market is massively overvalued and full of private investors using an unprecedented amount of margin. Valuations are based on potential future earnings. What could possibly go wrong? 

It is sounding like 1929 all over again. Once the first domino falls the rest will follow.

How do you know that governments won't just keep printing money and kick the can down the road?   

When money is printed it goes into the stock market, as you can see over the past 14 months of rises.

All eyes are on the Fed. First indications that tapering is coming under consideration. When the Fed moves impacting the $, there's going to be a ripple effect. Interest rate rises are on the horizon also. 

People have been saying that since 2009.

There wasn't a pandemic though in 2009. 

There isn't one one now.

Luckily you don't get to decide that

I didn't. Mark Drakeford decided it 2 full months ago for those who live in Wales:

https://www.southwalesargus.co.uk/news/19255863.covid-19-pandemic---return-warns-drakeford/

coastline

Type_45 said:

Thrugelmir said:

Type_45 said:

beavere38 said:

"Black Tuesday tomorrow?  Or Black Wednesday?  Perhaps."

Who knows, I'm not going to try and predict exactly what will happen. I still believe the top is in on the markets. If the Dow, FTSE and Dax make new highs then I am wrong. The market is massively overvalued and full of private investors using an unprecedented amount of margin. Valuations are based on potential future earnings. What could possibly go wrong? 

It is sounding like 1929 all over again. Once the first domino falls the rest will follow.

How do you know that governments won't just keep printing money and kick the can down the road?   

When money is printed it goes into the stock market, as you can see over the past 14 months of rises.

All eyes are on the Fed. First indications that tapering is coming under consideration. When the Fed moves impacting the $, there's going to be a ripple effect. Interest rate rises are on the horizon also. 

People have been saying that since 2009.

Tend to agree. Rate rises will come from such a low base . They'll be lucky if they reach 2% in this cycle. The FED are hinting at two rises in a years time not today. You'd think the moves were going to be 5% then 10% the way the media go on. Best to take no notice the market will adjust and they'll pile in again. Why because it's cheap so they'll say.!! Corrections are laughable really at times. If it's expensive when they fall how come they recover in a short space of time ? It's all a game .Part fundamentals and the rest money piling in from one sector to another. Anyway the markets like a bit of inflation so they say.

Ultra-low interest rates have huge consequences for the country and its citizens - Institute For Fiscal Studies - IFS

An opinion from the many out there.

Opinion: Powell and the Fed are enabling the Biden inflation - MarketWatch

Inflation is currently running 4% in US yet there's no overnight move. ? Look at the link below . Inflation in 2011 5% yet base rates level.

inflation-interest-rates-1945-2011.png (944×650) (economicshelp.org)

SouthCoastBoy

if the base rate rises to 2% that is quite an increase, 2000%, could mean mortgage rates double, so when fixed deals come to an end or new mortgages being taken out that could have a big impact on repayment values.

beavere38

I'm still confident the markets have topped out at the previous all time high so FTSE approx 7220, Dax approx 15800 and Dow approx 35090. Gold has one more dip maybe to 1737 then it will rally again. The upward movement last couple of days on the indices is IMO just a bear rally before we head down for real. 

Type_45

beavere38 said:

I'm still confident the markets have topped out at the previous all time high so FTSE approx 7220, Dax approx 15800 and Dow approx 35090. Gold has one more dip maybe to 1737 then it will rally again. The upward movement last couple of days on the indices is IMO just a bear rally before we head down for real. 

How are the "heads & shoulders" and "candles" looking?