Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

Prism

Swipe said:

MK62 said:

Swipe said:

The settlement price for the FTSE Global All Cap is set at 9pm daily at US market close and then updated on the Vanguard website a few hours later. 11am is just the daily deadline for orders.

Edit. Settlement price is calculated at 9pm US Eastern Standard Time which will reflect the US market close price

Swipe said:

Edit. Settlement price is calculated at 9pm US Eastern Standard Time which will reflect the US market close price

The valuation point is 9m London time (at least according to the fund's prospectus anyway)

Either way, it gets the same price

Usually but not always. 9pm UK time does not always represent close of the US markets. It can also take into account after market trading, pre trading and futures as required.

masonic

anonmoose said:

It seems the all world etf is more popular on here than the global all cap.  Is there a reason people go for the ETF instead?

The all-cap index fund is not equivalent to the all-world ETF. The all-cap index covers smaller companies, whereas the all-world ETF does not. For the purposes of tracking daily performance, an open-ended fund is not particularly useful if you want up to date data, since it is priced once a day and that price becomes available >8 hours after the valuation point.

Swipe

Prism said:

Swipe said:

MK62 said:

Swipe said:

The settlement price for the FTSE Global All Cap is set at 9pm daily at US market close and then updated on the Vanguard website a few hours later. 11am is just the daily deadline for orders.

Edit. Settlement price is calculated at 9pm US Eastern Standard Time which will reflect the US market close price

Swipe said:

Edit. Settlement price is calculated at 9pm US Eastern Standard Time which will reflect the US market close price

The valuation point is 9m London time (at least according to the fund's prospectus anyway)

Either way, it gets the same price

Usually but not always. 9pm UK time does not always represent close of the US markets. It can also take into account after market trading, pre trading and futures as required.

Fair comment. This is why I'm sure I'd read 9pm EST over 9pm UK time which would tally with the time the website price is updated (2am UK time) but I must have been mistaken. It would be nice to know in detail how the settlement price is calculated but I'm sure that would be hard to find. 

Type_45

The 2y/10y Treasury yield confirms that not only is the US probably already in a recession, but that it will be a very deep recession.

Over in Taiwan, capital is fleeing TSM which is one of the most important companies in the world and which makes microchips. Michael Burry (he of The Big Short) recently tweeted that China will make a military move on Taiwan in early 2023. The US and Chinese recessions, along with anticipated CCP military moves on Taiwan appear to ve feeding the flight of capital from TSM.

InvesterJones

Type_45 said:

The 2y/10y Treasury yield confirms that not only is the US probably already in a recession, but that it will be a very deep recession.

Over in Taiwan, capital is fleeing TSM which is one of the most important companies in the world and which makes microchips. Michael Burry (he of The Big Short) recently tweeted that China will make a military move on Taiwan in early 2023. The US and Chinese recessions, along with anticipated CCP military moves on Taiwan appear to ve feeding the flight of capital from TSM.

Markets look green across the board today.

TSM up 5%.

masonic

Type_45 said:

The 2y/10y Treasury yield confirms that not only is the US probably already in a recession, but that it will be a very deep recession.

That's interesting, could you explain the reasoning behind this please, especially the 'very deep' part?

Type_45

InvesterJones said:

Type_45 said:

The 2y/10y Treasury yield confirms that not only is the US probably already in a recession, but that it will be a very deep recession.

Over in Taiwan, capital is fleeing TSM which is one of the most important companies in the world and which makes microchips. Michael Burry (he of The Big Short) recently tweeted that China will make a military move on Taiwan in early 2023. The US and Chinese recessions, along with anticipated CCP military moves on Taiwan appear to ve feeding the flight of capital from TSM.

Markets look green across the board today.

TSM up 5%.

TSM is down 20% in the past month (today notwithstanding as I haven't looked today).

It's been almost cut in half this year.

Swipe

Type_45 said:

The 2y/10y Treasury yield confirms that not only is the US probably already in a recession, but that it will be a very deep recession.

Recessions normally come quite a while (many months) after yield curve inversion. It is not immediate as you suggest.

InvesterJones

Type_45 said:

InvesterJones said:

Type_45 said:

The 2y/10y Treasury yield confirms that not only is the US probably already in a recession, but that it will be a very deep recession.

Over in Taiwan, capital is fleeing TSM which is one of the most important companies in the world and which makes microchips. Michael Burry (he of The Big Short) recently tweeted that China will make a military move on Taiwan in early 2023. The US and Chinese recessions, along with anticipated CCP military moves on Taiwan appear to ve feeding the flight of capital from TSM.

Markets look green across the board today.

TSM up 5%.

It's been almost cut in half this year.

No wonder you have some 'interesting' statements This year it is down 27.5%. That is nothing like 'half', and is entirely in line with other tech stocks.

Type_45

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

The 2y/10y Treasury yield confirms that not only is the US probably already in a recession, but that it will be a very deep recession.

That's interesting, could you explain the reasoning behind this please, especially the 'very deep' part?

It's gone flat and there's no spread between the 2s and 10s. This is the bond market being incredibly pessimistic. It has no belief right now that the USA's economy will grow. They will accept the same amount of yield two years out as 10 years out. 

It's very bearish and it has an almost perfect track record of forecasting recessions.

The US is already in a recession, it just hasn't been officially anointed yet.

So we can either take action, or we can ignore this and carry on as normal.