Economy crash =/= stock market crash?

Type_45

InvesterJones said:

Type_45 said:

InvesterJones said:

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

That political definition was already known since Middle of June 2022. Which president / government want to be remembered as the party who takes the Country into recession ??

A recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth. That has been the definition of recession for decades.

Ah, I thought there was someone here who said the US was already in recession, they must have been using a different definition I guess.

edit, oh yes, it was you:

Type_45 said:

masonic said:

Type_45 said:

The 2y/10y Treasury yield confirms that not only is the US probably already in a recession, but that it will be a very deep recession.

That's interesting, could you explain the reasoning behind this please, especially the 'very deep' part?

The US is already in a recession, it just hasn't been officially anointed yet.

Yes that is correct. The numbers aren't out yet for Q2, hence what I said. 

So from the definition, it can't be in recession already. The earliest it can be is when the numbers come out.

When the numbers come out it will show that the US has been in a recession all year.



Why would the White House attempt an Orwellian re-definition of what 'recession' means if the US were not in a recession?  


Join the dots.

Hexane

Type_45 said:

House prices are irrelevant to me.  I don't care if my house is worth 1p.  So will everyone else's be.  My house is my home and I don't have much of a mortgage.  You might as well threaten me with a feather duster.

My pension is a guaranteed amount too, so a stock market crash doesn't hurt me there one iota.


A stock market crash would hit my £75K ISA badly.  It's almost entirely in equities.   But I have no plans for it and don't access it at all.  It's grown by 10% this year.  £2K this month alone.  I shall take my chances.  

That being said, I am not buying anymore equities until next year.  I am building up cash in case there's a crash and then I plan on buying the dip.

Wise plan!

Alistair31

Hexane said:

Type_45 said:

House prices are irrelevant to me.  I don't care if my house is worth 1p.  So will everyone else's be.  My house is my home and I don't have much of a mortgage.  You might as well threaten me with a feather duster.

My pension is a guaranteed amount too, so a stock market crash doesn't hurt me there one iota.


A stock market crash would hit my £75K ISA badly.  It's almost entirely in equities.   But I have no plans for it and don't access it at all.  It's grown by 10% this year.  £2K this month alone.  I shall take my chances.  

That being said, I am not buying anymore equities until next year.  I am building up cash in case there's a crash and then I plan on buying the dip.

Wise plan!

Indeed. Unfortunately he found out the hard way the consequences of not sticking with said plan. 

masonic

Apologies for the bump, but it seems timely to have a review of the predictions made for this year by the OP. Even though they are no longer here under this username, and many of their other posts were removed, some have been preserved in this thread. Here is a selection from May 2022, presented without comment. Best of luck for 2023, Type_45

Type_45 said:

Global food shortages are coming. Stock up. 

Type_45 said:
I've been saying 80% for many months and suffered slings and arrows.

Type_45 said:

The S&P lost 57% in 2008.

This crash will be bigger.

Type_45 said:

coastline said:

Type_45 said:

Just two FED rate hikes in, and we are in a bear market.

Just 9 or 10 hikes to go, guys 👍

Will they get there that's the question ? 

I don't think they'll get anywhere near it.

It will either:

A)  Collapse 80% as they hike rates

B ) The FED will panic as the markets collapse, reverse course, print more money, and then the markets rise even more and then collapse anyway.

Either way, it's collapsing.

Type_45 said:
The central banks are trapped.  They cannot raise rates.  They may do so another once or twice, and then the wheels will fall off and they will loosen policy again.  At that stage everyone will see they have completely lost control and the whole thing will fall apart.

Type_45 said:

There are five convergent forces which will push the global economy over the edge and create a depression and an 80% drop on global equity markets:

1) the up-coming global famine
2) the cost of energy crisis

3) inflation
4) global debt 
5) supply chain crisis

sevenhills

I saved the 50% increase by stocking up on tins of baked beans.

RG2015

It turns out that my best decision of 2022 was to avoid this thread.

adindas

I have done exactly the opposite. I keep adding up my investments using "enhanced" DCA.

Where is this prophet nowadays ? Hiding ??

We still have until 00:00 today

Statement of the year "I definitely ahead of the curve of everyone else in this thread (forum ?)".

Type_45  might still be here with another UN. Hey say something ....

masonic said:

Apologies for the bump, but it seems timely to have a review of the predictions made for this year by the OP. Even though they are no longer here under this username, and many of their other posts were removed, some have been preserved in this thread. Here is a selection from May 2022, presented without comment. Best of luck for 2023, Type_45

Type_45 said:

A)  Collapse 80% as they hike rates

B ) The FED will panic as the markets collapse, reverse course, print more money, and then the markets rise even more and then collapse anyway.

Either way, it's collapsing.

There are five convergent forces which will push the global economy over the edge and create a depression and an 80% drop on global equity markets:

1) the up-coming global famine
2) the cost of energy crisis

3) inflation
4) global debt 
5) supply chain crisis

Alistair31

Lol 

Maybe he will out himself, his new ID, to offer his predictions for 2023? 

adindas

Expect Market to rally in the coming days/week

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/12/consumer-prices-fell-0point1percent-in-december-in-line-with-economists-expectations.html

Consumer prices fell 0.1% in December, in line with expectations from economists

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LbRpJVBI8xg  December CPI falls .1%, meets market expectations

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NFU-2EDOk5Y Consumer prices fell 0.1% in December, in line with forecasts

Stargunner

adindas said:

Expect Market to rally in the coming days/week

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/12/consumer-prices-fell-0point1percent-in-december-in-line-with-economists-expectations.html

Consumer prices fell 0.1% in December, in line with expectations from economists

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LbRpJVBI8xg  December CPI falls .1%, meets market expectations

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NFU-2EDOk5Y Consumer prices fell 0.1% in December, in line with forecasts

This was already priced in to the markets as it was in line with expectations.