How much longer will this bear market go on for?

InvesterJones

SonOfPearl said:

Whilst not wishing to single out any individuals in particular, I can't help but feel that this thread is an excellent example of the truth of the quote: “The fundamental cause of the trouble in the modern world today is that the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.”—Bertrand Russell.

I like one from the 'Many Happy Returns' podcast recently: Pessimists make themselves sound smart. Optimists make money.


Which was basically saying that if you shout about a terrible crash all the time then once in a blue moon you'll be right and can crow about it (ignoring all the other times you were wrong). Meanwhile people who quietly invest will have actually made money, even if there's a crash.

Type_45

Linton said:

Type_45 said:

The scramble for the exit is going to be epic.

When? A deadline would be helpful so we can check your predictions.

As I've already pointed out, you guys (retail investors) are delaying it.

The Fed has said in no uncertain terms that it will keep raising rates until it has inflation under control.

(Or, it will keep raising rates until something breaks.)

But the stock market has assumed, and priced in, that the Fed will pivot. And so people are buying back in and inflating asset prices in anticipation of the loosening of policy.

So with asset prices going up, inflation at ~9%, jobs (allegedly) full, then why would the Fed do anything other than keep raising rates?

They will keep raising rates until the market gets the message through its head that the Fed is serious and will not pivot.

So this process will keep going on for as long as it takes the market to wake up to reality. And in the meantime the market is making its own fall all the more spectacular the more it inflates. 

adindas

Those who are interested in Technical Analysts. The S&P500 is currently meeting the strong resistance level/zone after leg up this week. This resistance level/zone will need to be broken first before another leg up. If they just swing in that zone, that suggest the resistance level/zone is not broken. Last week moment was quite accurately represented in the Fear and Greed index + The VIX, from the diagram in the previous post.

The Chartmaster's key levels to watch for the market CNBC Television Aug 6, 2022. There is another more accurate indicator used by some traders in CNBC fastmoney e.g S&P short range oscillator, but this one is not available for free.

Just be aware of, the technical analysis is not 100% accurate. So we use this analysis with our own risk.

Alistair31

renegade1 said:

Linton said:

Type_45 said:

The scramble for the exit is going to be epic.

When? A deadline would be helpful so we can check your predictions.

He's purposely being ambiguous so he won't get called out on it. Posts like these are just designed to invoke responses and stir up panic. It's textbook trolling.

Empty vessels make the most noise

MK62

Type_45 said:

Linton said:

Type_45 said:

The scramble for the exit is going to be epic.

When? A deadline would be helpful so we can check your predictions.

As I've already pointed out, you guys (retail investors) are delaying it.

The Fed has said in no uncertain terms that it will keep raising rates until it has inflation under control.

(Or, it will keep raising rates until something breaks.)

But the stock market has assumed, and priced in, that the Fed will pivot. And so people are buying back in and inflating asset prices in anticipation of the loosening of policy.

So with asset prices going up, inflation at ~9%, jobs (allegedly) full, then why would the Fed do anything other than keep raising rates?

They will keep raising rates until the market gets the message through its head that the Fed is serious and will not pivot.

So this process will keep going on for as long as it takes the market to wake up to reality. And in the meantime the market is making its own fall all the more spectacular the more it inflates. 

The "Fed" are not stupid........they might make mistakes, who doesn't in hindsight, but they aren't going to blindly keep raising interest rates, if it becomes clear that doing so is having little effect in forcing US inflation down.

However, at some point they will stop raising rates and start reducing them...... just like they always have.

Swipe

I posted this earlier but I suggest the doomers here watch this video to put the probability of an 80% crash into context. This guy is completely unbiased as you will see from his earlier videos from around the June lows.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RDudZZiPPIQ

masonic

Type_45 said:

Linton said:

Type_45 said:

The scramble for the exit is going to be epic.

When? A deadline would be helpful so we can check your predictions.

As I've already pointed out, you guys (retail investors) are delaying it.

"And I would have succeeded, if it hadn't been for these meddling kids."

kinger101

Type_45 said:

I am clearly more ahead of the curve than anyone on this forum.  My predictions come true like clockwork.

Why don't you make a killing via spread betting then?

Alistair31

Type_45 said:

I am clearly more ahead of the curve than anyone on this forum.  My predictions come true like clockwork.

It’s a pity you couldn’t predict a 30% decline on your GJGB holding before you purchased 19/04. Still holding or did you take the loss? 

I thought maybe your crypto predictions would be better, but seems not. The decline in GJGB you said was second only to the decline your crypto had suffered. Worse than 30% by June, now look at it. Ouch! 

Your portfolio in June was 1/3rd cash, the rest in SGLN, SSLN, GJGB and crypto. Zero equities. 

With the markers set at what you described then as a murder scene, I wonder how would you describe it now?

Can we have an update for August? 

Millyonare

Type_45 said:

Prism said:

Millyonare said:

Prism said:

Millyonare said:

Apodemus said:

adindas said:

It is now the bear market and stock market has been trending down slowly since November 2021.

While this is true for the World as a whole, there will be many UK self-investors who are (perhaps naively) over-exposed to the UK market which has been pretty flat for five or so years, with the exception of the Covid dip period.  Where the UK market will go is anyone's guess, but while these investors have probably not made the same gains in the past five years, they've not experienced the same drops in the last five months.  Such investors need to be wary of viewing this as evidence of a less volatile portfolio, or a lower risk one.

The FTSE100 has been in a bear market for almost quarter of a century. It has moved nowhere for the past 23 years. Some call it a Jurassic dinosaur market. It has gone beyond the bear.

You don't seem to understand the FTSE 100 at all

Sounds like some folks may not be up-to-date with the very latest, modern terms.

In real terms, the FTSE100 has plunged a huge -30% between 1999 and 2022. It has moved nowhere, in nominal terms, for a quarter of a century. One of the worst-performing major stockmarkets in history. That is not a bear. It is a dinosaur. Some now call it the Jurassic market.

The returns on the FTSE 100 have easily exceeded inflation between 1999 and 2022. The index itself is not relevant. In performance terms it kept up with MCSI World until 2015 when the Brexit vote was announced. 

Keeping up with inflation over a 20 year period isn't much of a boast.  That's the minimum expectation of investing.

FTSE100 peaked at 6930 in 1999...

FTSE100 today sits at 7440 in 2022...

The index has barely moved +7% in 23 years...

That is pretty much 0% average growth per year for a quarter of a century...

Zero index growth this century makes it one of the worst-performing major stockmarkets in history...

The FTSE100 is a Jurassic dinosaur market. It has gone "beyond the bear"...

The Financial Times covered the topic extensively, a few months ago.