How much longer will this bear market go on for?

Michael121

jcuurthht said:

Linton said:

Type_45 said:

In the US:

45% of American restaurants could not even pay rent in July.

One-third of all small businesses missed rent.

And despite today's good jobs report, major layoffs are happening at big name corporations.

And in the UK? 

I assume most people are invested in all world funds which have <5% exposure to the UK, so it shouldn't really matter too much what happens here.

Do you work overseas then?

Type_45

Stock market in a trance.

Linton

jcuurthht said:

Linton said:

Type_45 said:

In the US:

45% of American restaurants could not even pay rent in July.

One-third of all small businesses missed rent.

And despite today's good jobs report, major layoffs are happening at big name corporations.

And in the UK? 

I assume most people are invested in all world funds which have <5% exposure to the UK, so it shouldn't really matter too much what happens here.

The current discussion is not about markets, investments and funds but rather about the local economies.  45% of American restaurants not able to pay rent (even if it were true) has little bearing on global index funds.

adindas

The July Job report in the US is jaw dropping, 528k job added. CNBC Aug 5, 2022

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysFNlmKOvZo

Even though the US is technically already in the recession as the GDP has dropped in two consecutive quarters, but the recession in the US will need to be declared by NBER.

But some argues that the recession this time is quite different as it is one of the lowest unemployment rate in the history, the salary is rising, the U.S. Service Sector. Activity Unexpectedly Rises in July. Not to mention the crude oil prices have tanked to their lowest levels since Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/crude-oil-prices-tanked-lowest-054245934.html (Yahoo Finance Fri, 5 August 2022)

Hexane

Type_45 said:

But we know for a fact what dinosaurs were all about and what happened hundreds of millions of years ago... Hats off to Paleontology!

Not really, there have been huge changes and uncertainties in the "accepted view" of what dinosaurs were all about even relatively recently. Warm blooded, cold blooded, partly warm blooded, all covered with feathers or not, and all sorts of other debates. Remember that what we "know" about some species of dinosaur is based on one single tiny bone that we can guess is a particular part of their leg and then extrapolate what the rest of that dinosaur might have looked like based on a comparison of the size of that particular bone in similar species that we know more about.

Hexane

jcuurthht said:

Linton said:

Type_45 said:

In the US:

45% of American restaurants could not even pay rent in July.

One-third of all small businesses missed rent.

And despite today's good jobs report, major layoffs are happening at big name corporations.

And in the UK? 

I assume most people are invested in all world funds which have <5% exposure to the UK,

my pension funds aren't.

jcuurthht

Michael121 said:

jcuurthht said:

Linton said:

Type_45 said:

In the US:

45% of American restaurants could not even pay rent in July.

One-third of all small businesses missed rent.

And despite today's good jobs report, major layoffs are happening at big name corporations.

And in the UK? 

I assume most people are invested in all world funds which have <5% exposure to the UK, so it shouldn't really matter too much what happens here.

Do you work overseas then?

I live in Germany.

Linton said:

jcuurthht said:

Linton said:

Type_45 said:

In the US:

45% of American restaurants could not even pay rent in July.

One-third of all small businesses missed rent.

And despite today's good jobs report, major layoffs are happening at big name corporations.

And in the UK? 

I assume most people are invested in all world funds which have <5% exposure to the UK, so it shouldn't really matter too much what happens here.

The current discussion is not about markets, investments and funds but rather about the local economies.  45% of American restaurants not able to pay rent (even if it were true) has little bearing on global index funds.

Ah sorry, my mistake.

Millyonare

Prism said:

Millyonare said:

Apodemus said:

adindas said:

It is now the bear market and stock market has been trending down slowly since November 2021.

While this is true for the World as a whole, there will be many UK self-investors who are (perhaps naively) over-exposed to the UK market which has been pretty flat for five or so years, with the exception of the Covid dip period.  Where the UK market will go is anyone's guess, but while these investors have probably not made the same gains in the past five years, they've not experienced the same drops in the last five months.  Such investors need to be wary of viewing this as evidence of a less volatile portfolio, or a lower risk one.

The FTSE100 has been in a bear market for almost quarter of a century. It has moved nowhere for the past 23 years. Some call it a Jurassic dinosaur market. It has gone beyond the bear.

You don't seem to understand the FTSE 100 at all

Sounds like some folks may not be up-to-date with the very latest, modern terms.

In real terms, the FTSE100 has plunged a huge -30% between 1999 and 2022. It has moved nowhere, in nominal terms, for a quarter of a century. One of the worst-performing major stockmarkets in history. That is not a bear. It is a dinosaur. Some now call it the Jurassic market.

Prism

Millyonare said:

Prism said:

Millyonare said:

Apodemus said:

adindas said:

It is now the bear market and stock market has been trending down slowly since November 2021.

While this is true for the World as a whole, there will be many UK self-investors who are (perhaps naively) over-exposed to the UK market which has been pretty flat for five or so years, with the exception of the Covid dip period.  Where the UK market will go is anyone's guess, but while these investors have probably not made the same gains in the past five years, they've not experienced the same drops in the last five months.  Such investors need to be wary of viewing this as evidence of a less volatile portfolio, or a lower risk one.

The FTSE100 has been in a bear market for almost quarter of a century. It has moved nowhere for the past 23 years. Some call it a Jurassic dinosaur market. It has gone beyond the bear.

You don't seem to understand the FTSE 100 at all

Sounds like some folks may not be up-to-date with the very latest, modern terms.

In real terms, the FTSE100 has plunged a huge -30% between 1999 and 2022. It has moved nowhere, in nominal terms, for a quarter of a century. One of the worst-performing major stockmarkets in history. That is not a bear. It is a dinosaur. Some now call it the Jurassic market.

The returns on the FTSE 100 have easily exceeded inflation between 1999 and 2022. The index itself is not relevant. In performance terms it kept up with MCSI World until 2015 when the Brexit vote was announced. 

Type_45

Prism said:

Millyonare said:

Prism said:

Millyonare said:

Apodemus said:

adindas said:

It is now the bear market and stock market has been trending down slowly since November 2021.

While this is true for the World as a whole, there will be many UK self-investors who are (perhaps naively) over-exposed to the UK market which has been pretty flat for five or so years, with the exception of the Covid dip period.  Where the UK market will go is anyone's guess, but while these investors have probably not made the same gains in the past five years, they've not experienced the same drops in the last five months.  Such investors need to be wary of viewing this as evidence of a less volatile portfolio, or a lower risk one.

The FTSE100 has been in a bear market for almost quarter of a century. It has moved nowhere for the past 23 years. Some call it a Jurassic dinosaur market. It has gone beyond the bear.

You don't seem to understand the FTSE 100 at all

Sounds like some folks may not be up-to-date with the very latest, modern terms.

In real terms, the FTSE100 has plunged a huge -30% between 1999 and 2022. It has moved nowhere, in nominal terms, for a quarter of a century. One of the worst-performing major stockmarkets in history. That is not a bear. It is a dinosaur. Some now call it the Jurassic market.

The returns on the FTSE 100 have easily exceeded inflation between 1999 and 2022. The index itself is not relevant. In performance terms it kept up with MCSI World until 2015 when the Brexit vote was announced. 

Keeping up with inflation over a 20 year period isn't much of a boast.  That's the minimum expectation of investing.