How much longer will this bear market go on for?

Prism

Type_45 said:

Prism said:

Nobody has a clue - individuals, experts or institutions. Anyone with an opinion of what happens to markets is simply guessing. Its quite amusing watch people who are so sure of their guess.

Not true.  There is plenty of data to support the fact that the economy is in major trouble.  Lights flashing all over the dashboard.  

I said the markets not the economies. The markets already represent the group opinion of the future of the various economies. Besides, what do you mean by 'the economy'? The UK economy? The US? China? They are all different.

adindas

Type_45 said:

grumiofoundation said:

Type_45 said:

I am clearly more ahead of the curve than anyone on this forum.  My predictions come true like clockwork.

From a quick trawl I am struggling to tell the time.... 
I am sure there are many more predictions lurking in your posts. I am sure i just happened to have missed all those clockwork predictions

April 2018 - your concerns of 50% portfolio drop in 2018 didn't happen. 
 https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/5820767/next-recession-trade-wars-up-to-50-portfolio-losses/p1


May 2021 - 'before long' tumble (obviously you didn't define too long so as not to be held to any predictions - bit hard to claim you are like clockwork when you don't give a time scale though)
"Surely, the stock market will take a tumble before long in this climate"
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6264272/everything-in-vanguard/p1


And of course last but not least
January 2022 - The now famous prediction 
"I'd wait until the 2nd half of 2022 when the stock market loses 80% of it's value"
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/78879898#Comment_78879898


Technically it is now the 2nd half of 2022 but I expect most people are willing to give you until Dec 31st 2022 for the 80% drop.

That's some great archaeology. Fair play  

So when you wrote this, you might be smoking something or have not taken your medicine then  > ?????

Type_45

Prism said:

Type_45 said:

Prism said:

Nobody has a clue - individuals, experts or institutions. Anyone with an opinion of what happens to markets is simply guessing. Its quite amusing watch people who are so sure of their guess.

Not true.  There is plenty of data to support the fact that the economy is in major trouble.  Lights flashing all over the dashboard.  

I said the markets not the economies. The markets already represent the group opinion of the future of the various economies. Besides, what do you mean by 'the economy'? The UK economy? The US? China? They are all different.

I said, about 10 posts ago on this thread:  "The real economy is accelerating into recession.  The financial markets will follow."

Prism

Type_45 said:

Prism said:

Type_45 said:

Prism said:

Nobody has a clue - individuals, experts or institutions. Anyone with an opinion of what happens to markets is simply guessing. Its quite amusing watch people who are so sure of their guess.

Not true.  There is plenty of data to support the fact that the economy is in major trouble.  Lights flashing all over the dashboard.  

I said the markets not the economies. The markets already represent the group opinion of the future of the various economies. Besides, what do you mean by 'the economy'? The UK economy? The US? China? They are all different.

I said, about 10 posts ago on this thread:  "The real economy is accelerating into recession.  The financial markets will follow."

The real economy? what is that - The UK economy?

And your prediction about the markets is purely a guess.

Linton

Type_45 said:

Prism said:

Type_45 said:

Prism said:

Nobody has a clue - individuals, experts or institutions. Anyone with an opinion of what happens to markets is simply guessing. Its quite amusing watch people who are so sure of their guess.

Not true.  There is plenty of data to support the fact that the economy is in major trouble.  Lights flashing all over the dashboard.  

I said the markets not the economies. The markets already represent the group opinion of the future of the various economies. Besides, what do you mean by 'the economy'? The UK economy? The US? China? They are all different.

I said, about 10 posts ago on this thread:  "The real economy is accelerating into recession.  The financial markets will follow."

When?  By how much will stock markets fall?  Which stock markets? Global or just the UK? I dont expect complete accuracy, a range will do.

It is hardly a great prediction to say that the UK economy is heading into recession.  The BoE has said it and is taking actions to ensure it does, hopefully in a controlled way.  How else is the shortage of labour to be resolved without bringing in foreigners to fill the many vacancies, an alternative that is unlikely from the current government?

But as has been pointed out the markets are quite capable of rising in a recession and the UK is a relatively small part of the global economy..

jcuurthht

@Type_45 do you have any short positions?

P933alilli

My vls fund is now only c. 2% down and around the same price it was 3 months ago. During that time it got to about -12% at one point. This last 5-6 weeks it has risen slowly and steadily despite the gloomy news and predictions getting worse all the time. Its all very confusing and i cant say i really understand any of it. I suppose the bond side of the fund will be negatively impacted again from interest rate rises but can the market rise in a two year recession?

adindas

Collyflower1 said:

My vls fund is now only c. 2% down and around the same price it was 3 months ago. During that time it got to about -12% at one point. This last 5-6 weeks it has risen slowly and steadily despite the gloomy news and predictions getting worse all the time. Its all very confusing and i cant say i really understand any of it. I suppose the bond side of the fund will be negatively impacted again from interest rate rises but can the market rise in a two year recession?

If you are just down -12% at one point and now slowly catching up only c. 2% down and around the same price it was 3 months ago then you are doing better then the general stock market.

It is now the bear market and stock market has been trending down slowly since November 2021.

Various reasons causing this bear market have been discussed in this thread as well as in the financial news. A few to name the current war in Ukraine causing fuel/ food to sky rocketing. Keep in mind Russia is one of the global fuel exporters. Both Ukraine and Russia are few of the largest grain exporters in the world. Not to mention various cause before the Ukrainian War exploded e.g. the high rate of inflation the highest in 40 years, disruption in global supply chain, global chips shortages. Recently in the news China narrative to keep pressurising on Taiwan.

"A few analyst" have been arguing we might have seen the bottom in June 2022. But they often got it wrong. The sensible way of knowing might be to see whether what have caused this bear market in the first instance have gone. But if you wait until this moment you might be late to the party.

In the history the stock market, the stock market is trending down during years of recession. But some argues that the recession this time is quite different as it is one of the lowest unemployment rate in the history, the salary is rising, the U.S. Service Sector Activity Unexpectedly Rises in July. Not to mention we have seen the oils price start dropping.

Apodemus

adindas said:

It is now the bear market and stock market has been trending down slowly since November 2021.

While this is true for the World as a whole, there will be many UK self-investors who are (perhaps naively) over-exposed to the UK market which has been pretty flat for five or so years, with the exception of the Covid dip period.  Where the UK market will go is anyone's guess, but while these investors have probably not made the same gains in the past five years, they've not experienced the same drops in the last five months.  Such investors need to be wary of viewing this as evidence of a less volatile portfolio, or a lower risk one.

Type_45

Prism said:

Type_45 said:

Prism said:

Type_45 said:

Prism said:

Nobody has a clue - individuals, experts or institutions. Anyone with an opinion of what happens to markets is simply guessing. Its quite amusing watch people who are so sure of their guess.

Not true.  There is plenty of data to support the fact that the economy is in major trouble.  Lights flashing all over the dashboard.  

I said the markets not the economies. The markets already represent the group opinion of the future of the various economies. Besides, what do you mean by 'the economy'? The UK economy? The US? China? They are all different.

I said, about 10 posts ago on this thread:  "The real economy is accelerating into recession.  The financial markets will follow."

The real economy? what is that - The UK economy?

And your prediction about the markets is purely a guess.

Google: 'real economy '.