How much longer will this bear market go on for?

Swipe

Type_45 said:

Swipe said:

Type_45 said:

Swipe said:

Type_45 said:

To those bidding up assets or boasting about how they are going sideways and not down...  the more cover it gives the Fed to tighten.  That is not what the economy needs nor what any of us should want.

At some point you will realise you've made the biggest financial mistake of your life

What mistake have I made?

Not buying at a 20% discount

To what extent did you buy at the 20% discount? 

If not doing so is the biggest financial mistake of my life then you must have significantly bought in at that price?

I dribbled in around £50K. Your mistake is being out of the market if it doesn't breach the lows from June

adindas

Type_45 said:

adindas said:

The market do not like the news like this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ah1PlHtgZog&t=7s

China Says Military Exercises Begin All Around Taiwan Bloomberg Markets and Finance Aug 4, 2022

But I still believe that CCP are smart people who are still using their rational. They have interest to do that to keep on the agenda of their intention about Taiwan.

InvesterJones said:

adindas said:

The market do not like the news like this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ah1PlHtgZog&t=7s

China Says Military Exercises Begin All Around Taiwan Bloomberg Markets and Finance Aug 4, 2022

But I still believe that CCP are smart people who are still using their rational. They have interest to do that to keep on the agenda of their intention about Taiwan.

Markets are up (%): FTSE250 +0.57, DAX +0.83, CAC +0.59, Hang Seng +2.01, Nikkei 225 + 0.68, and at close last night NASDAQ +2.52, S&P 500 +1.53

which is a funny way of saying they don't like news.

The drop of the price of oil is helping the bear market rally this week.

How long have I been telling you all about Taiwan?


Just like inflation going north of a 9%/10%. And just like the recessions which are now being officially anointed.

I do not remember you said something new in general about Taiwan.

Military Drills especially if you see provocation from the other side (Nancy Peloci Visit) is a well known tactic that we have seen in multiple occasions.  Nothing new and not unexpected reaction.

But I and I believe many other people still believe that CCP are still using their rational. China certainly has interest to keep the Taiwan agenda afloat indefinitely. Nancy Peloci visits could be seen as a momentum to remind the world.

Type_45

Here's something I said almost a month ago.

What do you mean by "keeping the Taiwan agenda afloat" and the "CCP using its rationale"?

Type_45

This is just the start. 

jcuurthht

I'm planning on buying 10k all world twice a month for a few months. Am I doing it right? Did I miss the dip? Well it dip again? Well it dip more than in June? I guess none of it matters because in the future it will be higher regardless of what happens in the next few months.

adindas

Type_45 said:

Here's something I said almost a month ago.

What do you mean by "keeping the Taiwan agenda afloat" and the "CCP using its rationale"?

"China will make a military MOVE" on Taiwan IN EARLY 2023"

He did not say "INVADE".

Depend on your interpretation of a military move; people could interpret Military drill as a military move, so he got it wrong then as it has happened.

When come to prediction of a military invasion, annexation of a country, war; it is only non-sensible people will ever listen to Michael Burry. For this you will be listening to Military Analysts.

China has always seen Taiwan and the Penghu Islands as part of its territory under the One China principle. This has been going on and on since a few decades, not clear ??

When NATO countries have made statement to get directly involved in the war; unless you have stone in your head you would be mad to invade Taiwan. Keeping the issue afloat is your interest to remind that China still have that claim.

But I never said that the stock market could not go lower. But I simply do not believe it will tank 80% (as someone keeps saying this) from November 2021 high for the following reasons:

- Until today there has not been any expert, prominent analysts opinion ever claim the market will tank by 80% . These experts will need to worry about their reputation making such a major claim if they do not personally firmly believe that. We might or might not reach the bottom yet there are still split opinions.

- Even Michael Burry "The King of Short" who frequently benefiting from the falling stock market, market crash, has never publicly made that 80% fall claim. Michael Burry has incentive to keep spreading FUD to spook the market as being "the king of short, he will benefit from the falling market. But the other hand he will also need to worry about his reputation.

- Historically even during the great depression, the stock market has never tanked by 80%.

Type_45

adindas said:

Type_45 said:

Here's something I said almost a month ago.

What do you mean by "keeping the Taiwan agenda afloat" and the "CCP using its rationale"?

"China will make a military MOVE" on Taiwan IN EARLY 2023"

He did not say "INVADE".

Depend on your interpretation of a military move; people could interpret Military drill as a military move, so he got it wrong then as it has happened.

When come to prediction of a military invasion, annexation of a country, war; it is only non-sensible people will ever listen to Michael Burry. For this you will be listening to Military Analysts.

China has always seen Taiwan and the Penghu Islands as part of its territory under the One China principle. This has been going on and on since a few decades, not clear ??

When NATO countries have made statement to get directly involved in the war, unless you have stone in your head you will be mad to invade Taiwan. Keeping the issue afloat is your interest to remind that China still have that claim.

"Making a move on Taiwan" means an invasion or a naval blockade or such like. It does not mean military drills or manoeuvres within China, which are already happening.

The CCP consider Taiwan to be a rogue province of China. 

The Taiwanese rulers, likewise, consider China (and Mongolia) to be rightfully theirs to rule.

This split occured in 1949 when the CCP won a civil war and the government of the time fled to Taiwan.

InvesterJones

Type_45 said:

This is just the start. 

Start of stock market recovery? In the 90s there was a fall at the start but during the recession markets actually increased overall.

renegade1

InvesterJones said:

Type_45 said:

This is just the start. 

Start of stock market recovery? In the 90s there was a fall at the start but during the recession markets actually increased overall.

The stock market recovery started a month ago - S&P 500 is up nearly 10% from the end of June. The Nasdaq 100 is up 15%.

masonic

Type_45 said:

This is just the start. 

In fairness, I didn't think they had it in them. Though if they follow the US into a September pause, it will be a bit pointless.