How much longer will this bear market go on for?

Type_45

China is getting ready to make its move on Taiwan.

That would be an instant 5%-10% hit on the US and UK economies. 

Linton

Type_45 said:

China is getting ready to make its move on Taiwan.

That would be an instant 5%-10% hit on the US and UK economies. 

Doesn't that rather depend on what the next move would be.  If WW3 is the result perhaps market reaction would be a little stronger.  Why do you say 5-10%? Presumably your powers of prediction tell you what the next move is.

Type_45

Linton said:

Type_45 said:

China is getting ready to make its move on Taiwan.

That would be an instant 5%-10% hit on the US and UK economies. 

Doesn't that rather depend on what the next move would be.  If WW3 is the result perhaps market reaction would be a little stronger.  Why do you say 5-10%? Presumably your powers of prediction tell you what the next move is.

Taiwan is vital to the global economy as it makes 90% of the world's advanced microchips.  Taiwan is "Silicon Valley West".  If China seizes that production we are in trouble.

MK62

Even if they did seize it, you'd assume they'd still want to sell those advanced microchips........and if not, other countries (inc UK) would just have to make them for themselves.......disruption and price rises, yes......the end of the world as we know it, perhaps not so much......

Linton

Type_45 said:

Linton said:

Type_45 said:

China is getting ready to make its move on Taiwan.

That would be an instant 5%-10% hit on the US and UK economies. 

Doesn't that rather depend on what the next move would be.  If WW3 is the result perhaps market reaction would be a little stronger.  Why do you say 5-10%? Presumably your powers of prediction tell you what the next move is.

Taiwan is vital to the global economy as it makes 90% of the world's advanced microchips.  Taiwan is "Silicon Valley West".  If China seizes that production we are in trouble.

Which is why I was surpised that the effect you have calculated is only 5-10% and that the figure is so precise.  On the other hand China would have no incentive to disrupt the export of 90% of the world's microchips unless of course the US reaction made it necessary.

Type_45

Linton said:

Type_45 said:

Linton said:

Type_45 said:

China is getting ready to make its move on Taiwan.

That would be an instant 5%-10% hit on the US and UK economies. 

Doesn't that rather depend on what the next move would be.  If WW3 is the result perhaps market reaction would be a little stronger.  Why do you say 5-10%? Presumably your powers of prediction tell you what the next move is.

Taiwan is vital to the global economy as it makes 90% of the world's advanced microchips.  Taiwan is "Silicon Valley West".  If China seizes that production we are in trouble.

Which is why I was surpised that the effect you have calculated is only 5-10% and that the figure is so precise.  On the other hand China would have no incentive to disrupt the export of 90% of the world's microchips unless of course the US reaction made it necessary.

I said an "instant" 5%-10% hit on our economies.  It would likely get far worse.

China may, or may not, want to keep selling chips to the UK and US, but would the Taiwanese want to work under those conditions?

Russia and China would have oil, gas and microchips.

Type_45

MK62 said:

Even if they did seize it, you'd assume they'd still want to sell those advanced microchips........and if not, other countries (inc UK) would just have to make them for themselves.......disruption and price rises, yes......the end of the world as we know it, perhaps not so much......

It's not that easy to "just make them ourselves".  It takes time to bring that online.

That is what we need to do though.

Swipe

Type_45 said:

China is getting ready to make its move on Taiwan.

That would be an instant 5%-10% hit on the US and UK economies. 

You are sounding desperate now

MK62

Type_45 said:

MK62 said:

Even if they did seize it, you'd assume they'd still want to sell those advanced microchips........and if not, other countries (inc UK) would just have to make them for themselves.......disruption and price rises, yes......the end of the world as we know it, perhaps not so much......

It's not that easy to "just make them ourselves".  It takes time to bring that online.

That is what we need to do though.

Hence why I said there'd be disruption (while that happened) and price rises (to pay for it)........

plumb1_2

Type_45 said:

Linton said:

Type_45 said:

Linton said:

Type_45 said:

China is getting ready to make its move on Taiwan.

That would be an instant 5%-10% hit on the US and UK economies. 

Doesn't that rather depend on what the next move would be.  If WW3 is the result perhaps market reaction would be a little stronger.  Why do you say 5-10%? Presumably your powers of prediction tell you what the next move is.

Taiwan is vital to the global economy as it makes 90% of the world's advanced microchips.  Taiwan is "Silicon Valley West".  If China seizes that production we are in trouble.

Which is why I was surpised that the effect you have calculated is only 5-10% and that the figure is so precise.  On the other hand China would have no incentive to disrupt the export of 90% of the world's microchips unless of course the US reaction made it necessary.

I said an "instant" 5%-10% hit on our economies.  It would likely get far worse.

China may, or may not, want to keep selling chips to the UK and US, but would the Taiwanese want to work under those conditions?

Russia and China would have oil, gas and microchips.

At least we’ll still have our breweries, and chippies