How much longer will this bear market go on for?

adindas

How much longer will this bear market go on for noone knows with 100% certainty. But people could study and learn the foundation of riding and timing the bear market with the odd (probability) in your side rather than blindly randomly doing that. This book is one of the best sellers in timing the market by understanding the market, e.g the market cycle. It is written by one of the multi Billionaires Fund Manager, Co-founder and co-chairman of Oaktree Capital Management Howard Marks.

Howard Marks and his concepts on the books are endorsed by other Multi Billionaores Investors. So the idea and concept is not talking about "pie in the sky" that can not be done.
"Mastering the Market Cycle is a must-read" Ray Dalio
"When I see memos from Howard Marks in my mail, they're the first thing I open and read" Warren Buffett
"Howard is a legendary investor" Tony Robbins

So you are not listening and learning it from random person from the internet.

"Mastering The Market Cycle: Getting the odds on your side by Howard Marks". It is available in Amazon for less than £10.

Good to learn from his original thought but i if you do not have time there are reasonable number of people summarisation his idea quite accurately. This is just one of a few available from YouTube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ebWL2TrIssA&t=250s

Other clips could be searched from YouTube.

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=Mastering+the+Market+Cycle+Getting+the+Odds+on+Your+Side+by+Howard+Marks+(2018)

Hexane

Type_45 said:

MK62 said:

Even if they did seize it, you'd assume they'd still want to sell those advanced microchips........and if not, other countries (inc UK) would just have to make them for themselves.......disruption and price rises, yes......the end of the world as we know it, perhaps not so much......

It's not that easy to "just make them ourselves".  It takes time to bring that online.

That is what we need to do though.

That is why I have such high hopes for my investments in companies outside Taiwan that are capable of doing that.

If what you say about China's next move is right, their value will skyrocket and I will be rich!

I think this thread's title is getting somewhat misleading now though. Based on the value of my ISA portfolio, since the "bear market" supposedly started, things have now, overall, merely gone sideways rather than actually downwards at all.

Type_45

To those bidding up assets or boasting about how they are going sideways and not down...  the more cover it gives the Fed to tighten.  That is not what the economy needs nor what any of us should want.

baldeagle09

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/inflation-bank-england-cost-living-b2137311.html

What now for interest rates, savings, house prices, shares,  the economy etc?

InvesterJones

Type_45 said:

To those bidding up assets or boasting about how they are going sideways and not down...  the more cover it gives the Fed to tighten.  That is not what the economy needs nor what any of us should want.

It's OK, I don't think the Fed are reading this thread. Or did you mean the assets? Remember their mandate is inflation and employment only,

Prism

Type_45 said:

To those bidding up assets or boasting about how they are going sideways and not down...  the more cover it gives the Fed to tighten.  That is not what the economy needs nor what any of us should want.

I can guarantee that there is nothing that any of us can say or do that would have the slightest influence on the BoE never mind the US fed

Swipe

Type_45 said:

To those bidding up assets or boasting about how they are going sideways and not down...  the more cover it gives the Fed to tighten.  That is not what the economy needs nor what any of us should want.

At some point you will realise you've made the biggest financial mistake of your life

bd10

When I listened to JP during the last Q&A, he said:

"I think you have households are generally in about as strong as financial shape as they've been in a very long time or perhaps ever given the money that's on people's balance sheets. So you have a pretty, from a financial stability standpoint, you have a pretty decent picture."

Given that statement, I don't believe for a minute the Fed would be inclined to offer a put to provide a backstop to the stockmarket. Summers was quoted to have expressed a similar view of the Fed a few months ago. With no Fed put in place, they'll happily accept not only a recession - which they explicitly said - albeit hoping for a soft landing, and yes good luck with that, but also the S&P to go down another 20 odd percent without feeling compelled to ease the pain. They'll be focussed on one thing: firefighting inflation and if that means hiking into a recession and having a profound impact on esp. US equity prices, then so be it.

Type_45

Swipe said:

Type_45 said:

To those bidding up assets or boasting about how they are going sideways and not down...  the more cover it gives the Fed to tighten.  That is not what the economy needs nor what any of us should want.

At some point you will realise you've made the biggest financial mistake of your life

What mistake have I made?

Type_45

InvesterJones said:

Type_45 said:

To those bidding up assets or boasting about how they are going sideways and not down...  the more cover it gives the Fed to tighten.  That is not what the economy needs nor what any of us should want.

It's OK, I don't think the Fed are reading this thread. Or did you mean the assets? Remember their mandate is inflation and employment only,

We don't know what their agenda is.  Their agenda could be to collapse the economy and the stock market in order to bring about CBDCs.  Or any number of other things.  They may have made the decision to throw the stock market under the bus.