How much longer will this bear market go on for?

TonyTeacake

Type_45 said:

Swipe said:

TonyTeacake said:

The bottom line is this inflation monster is going to be with us for many years if the BOE don"t get hawkish and raise rates fast.  They are way behind the curve and if they don't act fast we may see the pound collapse.

The recession will take care of inflation

A deflationary bust is on the cards.

I agree this is something we really have to worry about.

TonyTeacake

Swipe said:

Adyinvestment said:

TonyTeacake said:

Rampant inflation is damaging not just to consumers but for many businesses. Once we hit winter time this inflation will be going up in the gears and this is when we start to see many businesses go to the wall. This has already started but will only get much worse.

If this is true and we are going to have a catastrophic meltdown why are the central banks not doing more? Do you think you know more than them?

Of course he thinks he does, along with all the armchair doomers on here, regardless of the vast amount of private data and stats a central bank has at its fingertips.

Even with all that data at their fingertips they said inflation was transitory. Please tell me how they missed that one last year.

Swipe

TonyTeacake said:

Swipe said:

Adyinvestment said:

TonyTeacake said:

Rampant inflation is damaging not just to consumers but for many businesses. Once we hit winter time this inflation will be going up in the gears and this is when we start to see many businesses go to the wall. This has already started but will only get much worse.

If this is true and we are going to have a catastrophic meltdown why are the central banks not doing more? Do you think you know more than them?

Of course he thinks he does, along with all the armchair doomers on here, regardless of the vast amount of private data and stats a central bank has at its fingertips.

Even with all that data at their fingertips they said inflation was transitory. Please tell me how they missed that one last year.

I'm sure you could have done better than the world's central banks and their economists even when they all fell into the exact same trap.

TonyTeacake

coyrls said:

TonyTeacake said:

Adyinvestment said:

TonyTeacake said:

Rampant inflation is damaging not just to consumers but for many businesses. Once we hit winter time this inflation will be going up in the gears and this is when we start to see many businesses go to the wall. This has already started but will only get much worse.

If this is true and we are going to have a catastrophic meltdown why are the central banks not doing more? Do you think you know more than them?

So a collapse of everything looks 

Big crash in everything globally.

We in the UK are going to experience a very big crash in the housing market. This time around this one will be of a different nature to the one in 2008, rampant inflation will be the cause of this crash. For the last 2 years we have had all this pent-up demand with house sale figures reaching nearly 1.6 million in the UK for 2021, pre-pandemic the average was just under 1.2 million. A lot of people also bought 2nd homes which as priced locals out of certain areas, Leeds Building Society are the first lender to stop giving mortgages out on 2nd homes. I hope other lenders follow suit.

The main driver for this rampant inflation was sending the money printers into overdrive and all of these lockdowns causing bottle necks in manufacturing and supply chains. Many people bought into the fomo to buy a house quick, before they go up because they will be none left. 

This everything bubble has already started to deflate in stocks, crypto's, and bonds, they are all showing signs of a big crash. In the USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand have already seen big drops in the last few months in house prices, China’s housing market has already collapsed. We in the UK are next. Once we hit winter time we will start to see the major cracks in our economy appear. To be honest this is going to be a lot worse than I first anticipated due to the energy crisis, 54% rise in April and the forecast for October is around 78%. With Russia cutting 80% of the Gas supply off to mainland Europe this is going to be disastrous. We can expect another big hike in January.

2 million people in the UK next year will be experiencing a mortgage shock when their fixed rates finish. Factor in the cost of living crisis it is going to be carnage. Many business's will go bust due to big losses in turnover and high running costs, unfortunately we will see many people lose jobs. The next couple of years doesn't look good.

In some areas we may see house prices plummet by 50%. Also it will be game over for a lot of BTL has tenants default on rents.

It's just the way it works, boom and bust. It's not about doom and gloom, it's just the reality and we need to face up to it.

phillw

Malthusian said:

I for one would be quite happy to call it "lockdown inflation", but that seems to be unpopular for "truth and reconciliation" reasons.

I.e. the lockdownists refuse to acknowledge that lockdown might have had some undesirable consequences and the covidiots are far too happy that it's now a historic non-issue to argue with them. Instead, half the country call it "Tory inflation" (or Biden inflation), the other half call it "Putin inflation", and everybody's happy.

I supported lockdown and I am perfectly willing to acknowledge that lockdown had some undesirable consequences.

However not locking down would likely have had rather similar undesirable consequences too, which unless we can re-run the pandemic exactly are impossible to prove.

IMO locking down earlier would likely have been the best outcome, and not wasting money on the "eat out to help spread covid" scheme.

The inflationary pressure right now comes from

Covid + Brexit + Putin.

Out of the three, Brexit is the only self inflicted cause.
China's Covid response is still having quite an impact for example.

bd10

@TonyTeacake:

You mention 2m borrowers facing higher remortgaging rates. Is this a guestimate or are there stats out there? Do the big lenders publish the maturity profile of their mortgage books? Just had a look at Nationwide's annual report and they provide distributions of LTV and default probabilities, but couldn't find any details on the maturities.

TonyTeacake

bd10 said:

@TonyTeacake:

You mention 2m borrowers facing higher remortgaging rates. Is this a guestimate or are there stats out there? Do the big lenders publish the maturity profile of their mortgage books? Just had a look at Nationwide's annual report and they provide distributions of LTV and default probabilities, but couldn't find any details on the maturities.

Nearly two million homeowners will be hit with “remortgage rate shock” next year as interest rates soar, new data has shown.

Half a million could see their repayments quadruple after they took out short-term deals at record-low rates which expire in the next 12 months.

The enormous surge in property purchases during the post-lockdown race for space – and the rush to take advantage of lower stamp duty – has meant 1.8 million homeowners’ fixed-rate mortgage deals end in 2023, according to UK Finance, a trade body.

This is a 36pc increase compared with 2022 and 53pc above the 1.18 million remortgage deals that ended in 2019. The number of homeowners exposed to huge increases in mortgage costs will be the highest since 2017, when UK Finance’s records began.

Experts have warned the sudden increase in higher debt costs poses a risk to the housing market – and the economy.

Here is the full article.

https://archive.ph/6kWAH

grumiofoundation

TonyTeacake said:

Incompetence on their behalf.

Unfortunately when this house of cards comes crashing down very soon a lot of us will be feeling the pain. Maybe you might have a different view towards them when this happens. I was talking about this rampant inflation on here even before Russia invaded Ukraine. Many people where dismissing me and telling me it is only a minor blip on the economy.

Which username was that under Tony? So we can all read your expert posts?

TonyTeacake

grumiofoundation said:

TonyTeacake said:

Incompetence on their behalf.

Unfortunately when this house of cards comes crashing down very soon a lot of us will be feeling the pain. Maybe you might have a different view towards them when this happens. I was talking about this rampant inflation on here even before Russia invaded Ukraine. Many people where dismissing me and telling me it is only a minor blip on the economy.

Which username was that under Tony? So we can all read your expert posts?

Fair enough I got my dates slightly mixed up. Here is a post from me on the 4th march talking about this rampant inflation.

For most people wages aren't keeping pace. I do think the in the next year or 2 we will start seeing a big change in house prices. It's not just interest rates that matter which do look like they maybe going up sooner rather then later so the BOE can curb high inflation, it is also affordability for mortgages has high energy costs being introduced from April and therefore higher costs for pretty much everything, this will surely impact people's spending power. Oh and let's not forgot what's going on in Ukraine as the effects of this are yet to be seen which could be catastrophic for many economies around the world.

You can go back and check the date of the post. 

Malthusian

Linton said:

Yes it really is much easier to look at the evidence and come to a conclusion rather than the other way around.

Sadly not true. If it was easier, people who look at the evidence first wouldn't be in such a tiny minority.