How much longer will this bear market go on for?

Type_45

bd10 said:

When I listened to JP during the last Q&A, he said:

"I think you have households are generally in about as strong as financial shape as they've been in a very long time or perhaps ever given the money that's on people's balance sheets. So you have a pretty, from a financial stability standpoint, you have a pretty decent picture."

Given that statement, I don't believe for a minute the Fed would be inclined to offer a put to provide a backstop to the stockmarket. Summers was quoted to have expressed a similar view of the Fed a few months ago. With no Fed put in place, they'll happily accept not only a recession - which they explicitly said - albeit hoping for a soft landing, and yes good luck with that, but also the S&P to go down another 20 odd percent without feeling compelled to ease the pain. They'll be focussed on one thing: firefighting inflation and if that means hiking into a recession and having a profound impact on esp. US equity prices, then so be it.

Exactly.  But investors these days are trained to believe that the stock market will always be propped up.

masonic

Type_45 said:

InvesterJones said:

Type_45 said:

To those bidding up assets or boasting about how they are going sideways and not down...  the more cover it gives the Fed to tighten.  That is not what the economy needs nor what any of us should want.

It's OK, I don't think the Fed are reading this thread. Or did you mean the assets? Remember their mandate is inflation and employment only,

We don't know what their agenda is.  Their agenda could be to collapse the economy and the stock market in order to bring about CBDCs.  Or any number of other things.  They may have made the decision to throw the stock market under the bus.

Their agenda can be narrowed down significantly if you are willing to exclude the implausible. As mentioned above, it has never been part of their mandate to manage the economy to prop up share prices. Perhaps helping companies stay in business during hard times, but shareholders have always been on their own (Trump had a weird obsession with the stock market, but he was a bit of an anomaly in many respects). Take the risk out of stockmarket investing and it would no longer warrant a risk premium when it comes to returns.

Swipe

Type_45 said:

Swipe said:

Type_45 said:

To those bidding up assets or boasting about how they are going sideways and not down...  the more cover it gives the Fed to tighten.  That is not what the economy needs nor what any of us should want.

At some point you will realise you've made the biggest financial mistake of your life

What mistake have I made?

Not buying at a 20% discount

InvesterJones

Type_45 said:

InvesterJones said:

Type_45 said:

To those bidding up assets or boasting about how they are going sideways and not down...  the more cover it gives the Fed to tighten.  That is not what the economy needs nor what any of us should want.

It's OK, I don't think the Fed are reading this thread. Or did you mean the assets? Remember their mandate is inflation and employment only,

We don't know what their agenda is. 

Yes we do, they publish it freely and they are independently audited against it.

Bobziz

Swipe said:

Type_45 said:

Swipe said:

Type_45 said:

To those bidding up assets or boasting about how they are going sideways and not down...  the more cover it gives the Fed to tighten.  That is not what the economy needs nor what any of us should want.

At some point you will realise you've made the biggest financial mistake of your life

What mistake have I made?

Not buying at a 20% discount

When will we know if not buying at a 20% discount was indeed a mistake?

adindas

The market do not like the news like this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ah1PlHtgZog&t=7s

China Says Military Exercises Begin All Around Taiwan Bloomberg Markets and Finance Aug 4, 2022

But I still believe that CCP are smart people who are still using their rational. They have interest to do that to keep on the agenda of their intention about Taiwan.

InvesterJones said:

adindas said:

The market do not like the news like this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ah1PlHtgZog&t=7s

China Says Military Exercises Begin All Around Taiwan Bloomberg Markets and Finance Aug 4, 2022

But I still believe that CCP are smart people who are still using their rational. They have interest to do that to keep on the agenda of their intention about Taiwan.

Markets are up (%): FTSE250 +0.57, DAX +0.83, CAC +0.59, Hang Seng +2.01, Nikkei 225 + 0.68, and at close last night NASDAQ +2.52, S&P 500 +1.53

which is a funny way of saying they don't like news.

The drop of the price of oil is helping the bear market rally this week.

InvesterJones

adindas said:

The market do not like the news like this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ah1PlHtgZog&t=7s

China Says Military Exercises Begin All Around Taiwan Bloomberg Markets and Finance Aug 4, 2022

But I still believe that CCP are smart people who are still using their rational. They have interest to do that to keep on the agenda of their intention about Taiwan.

Markets are up (%): FTSE250 +0.57, DAX +0.83, CAC +0.59, Hang Seng +2.01, Nikkei 225 + 0.68, and at close last night NASDAQ +2.52, S&P 500 +1.53

which is a funny way of saying they don't like news.

adindas

InvesterJones said:

adindas said:

The market do not like the news like this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ah1PlHtgZog&t=7s

China Says Military Exercises Begin All Around Taiwan Bloomberg Markets and Finance Aug 4, 2022

But I still believe that CCP are smart people who are still using their rational. They have interest to do that to keep on the agenda of their intention about Taiwan.

Markets are up (%): FTSE250 +0.57, DAX +0.83, CAC +0.59, Hang Seng +2.01, Nikkei 225 + 0.68, and at close last night NASDAQ +2.52, S&P 500 +1.53

which is a funny way of saying they don't like news.

The trend dropping of the price of oil is helping the bear market rally this week.

Another one is U.S. Service Sector Activity Unexpectedly Rises in July

https://uk.movies.yahoo.com/u-sector-activity-unexpectedly-rises-101634831.html

https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202208039664/us-services-activity-unexpectedly-gained-pace-in-july-ism

Also people know that the FED do not dare to increase the interest rate far beyond the expectation, at least until the midterm election November 2022.

Drills is just a drills. People might still believe that CCP are smart people who are still using their rational to keep Taiwan agenda not to disappear.

Type_45

Swipe said:

Type_45 said:

Swipe said:

Type_45 said:

To those bidding up assets or boasting about how they are going sideways and not down...  the more cover it gives the Fed to tighten.  That is not what the economy needs nor what any of us should want.

At some point you will realise you've made the biggest financial mistake of your life

What mistake have I made?

Not buying at a 20% discount

To what extent did you buy at the 20% discount? 

If not doing so is the biggest financial mistake of my life then you must have significantly bought in at that price?

Type_45

adindas said:

The market do not like the news like this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ah1PlHtgZog&t=7s

China Says Military Exercises Begin All Around Taiwan Bloomberg Markets and Finance Aug 4, 2022

But I still believe that CCP are smart people who are still using their rational. They have interest to do that to keep on the agenda of their intention about Taiwan.

InvesterJones said:

adindas said:

The market do not like the news like this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ah1PlHtgZog&t=7s

China Says Military Exercises Begin All Around Taiwan Bloomberg Markets and Finance Aug 4, 2022

But I still believe that CCP are smart people who are still using their rational. They have interest to do that to keep on the agenda of their intention about Taiwan.

Markets are up (%): FTSE250 +0.57, DAX +0.83, CAC +0.59, Hang Seng +2.01, Nikkei 225 + 0.68, and at close last night NASDAQ +2.52, S&P 500 +1.53

which is a funny way of saying they don't like news.

The drop of the price of oil is helping the bear market rally this week.

How long have I been telling you all about Taiwan?


Just like inflation going north of a 9%/10%. And just like the recessions which are now being officially anointed.