How much longer will this bear market go on for?

Type_45

The real economy is accelerating into recession.  The financial markets will follow.

jcuurthht

renegade1 said:

InvesterJones said:

Type_45 said:

This is just the start. 

Start of stock market recovery? In the 90s there was a fall at the start but during the recession markets actually increased overall.

The stock market recovery started a month ago - S&P 500 is up nearly 10% from the end of June. The Nasdaq 100 is up 15%.

It also recovered after the dot com bubble in 2001, only to crash again shortly after.

Type_45

jcuurthht said:

renegade1 said:

InvesterJones said:

Type_45 said:

This is just the start. 

Start of stock market recovery? In the 90s there was a fall at the start but during the recession markets actually increased overall.

The stock market recovery started a month ago - S&P 500 is up nearly 10% from the end of June. The Nasdaq 100 is up 15%.

It also recovered after the dot com bubble in 2001, only to crash again shortly after.

A drowning stock market will come up for air often.  And sometimes ferociously.

jcuurthht

Type_45 said:

jcuurthht said:

renegade1 said:

InvesterJones said:

Type_45 said:

This is just the start. 

Start of stock market recovery? In the 90s there was a fall at the start but during the recession markets actually increased overall.

The stock market recovery started a month ago - S&P 500 is up nearly 10% from the end of June. The Nasdaq 100 is up 15%.

It also recovered after the dot com bubble in 2001, only to crash again shortly after.

A drowning stock market will come up for air often.  And sometimes ferociously.

Yeah, that's my point.

Prism

Nobody has a clue - individuals, experts or institutions. Anyone with an opinion of what happens to markets is simply guessing. Its quite amusing watch people who are so sure of their guess.

grumiofoundation

Type_45 said:

I am clearly more ahead of the curve than anyone on this forum.  My predictions come true like clockwork.

From a quick trawl I am struggling to tell the time.... 
I am sure there are many more predictions lurking in your posts. I am sure i just happened to have missed all those clockwork predictions

April 2018 - your concerns of 50% portfolio drop in 2018 didn't happen. 
 https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/5820767/next-recession-trade-wars-up-to-50-portfolio-losses/p1


May 2021 - 'before long' tumble (obviously you didn't define too long so as not to be held to any predictions - bit hard to claim you are like clockwork when you don't give a time scale though)
"Surely, the stock market will take a tumble before long in this climate"
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6264272/everything-in-vanguard/p1


And of course last but not least
January 2022 - The now famous prediction 
"I'd wait until the 2nd half of 2022 when the stock market loses 80% of it's value"
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/78879898#Comment_78879898


Technically it is now the 2nd half of 2022 but I expect most people are willing to give you until Dec 31st 2022 for the 80% drop.

Type_45

Prism said:

Nobody has a clue - individuals, experts or institutions. Anyone with an opinion of what happens to markets is simply guessing. Its quite amusing watch people who are so sure of their guess.

Not true.  There is plenty of data to support the fact that the economy is in major trouble.  Lights flashing all over the dashboard.  

grumiofoundation

Type_45 said:

Prism said:

Nobody has a clue - individuals, experts or institutions. Anyone with an opinion of what happens to markets is simply guessing. Its quite amusing watch people who are so sure of their guess.

Not true.  There is plenty of data to support the fact that the economy is in major trouble.  Lights flashing all over the dashboard.  

Difference between seeing there are issues (there are always issues aren't there? Such as you predicted in 2018 as posted above) and reliably predicting/knowing what caused them/what impact they will have. 

Bit like the difference between being someone who can tell if someone is unwell and being a doctor. 


edit - also the poster said markets, you said economy. Generally high level observation skills require decent comprehension skills.

renegade1

Stocks have bottomed or are very near the bottom. I doubled my monthly contributions a few days ago.

The rally in the last month has been orderly, gradual. This is a good sign. Things are stabilizing. 

"we are reasonably confident that the worst is now behind us."

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/have-stocks-bottomed

Type_45

grumiofoundation said:

Type_45 said:

I am clearly more ahead of the curve than anyone on this forum.  My predictions come true like clockwork.

From a quick trawl I am struggling to tell the time.... 
I am sure there are many more predictions lurking in your posts. I am sure i just happened to have missed all those clockwork predictions

April 2018 - your concerns of 50% portfolio drop in 2018 didn't happen. 
 https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/5820767/next-recession-trade-wars-up-to-50-portfolio-losses/p1


May 2021 - 'before long' tumble (obviously you didn't define too long so as not to be held to any predictions - bit hard to claim you are like clockwork when you don't give a time scale though)
"Surely, the stock market will take a tumble before long in this climate"
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6264272/everything-in-vanguard/p1


And of course last but not least
January 2022 - The now famous prediction 
"I'd wait until the 2nd half of 2022 when the stock market loses 80% of it's value"
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/78879898#Comment_78879898


Technically it is now the 2nd half of 2022 but I expect most people are willing to give you until Dec 31st 2022 for the 80% drop.

That's some great archaeology. Fair play