EV Discussion thread

1961Nick

JKenH said:

1961Nick said:

JKenH said:

Presumably companies build PHEVs for a reason. If there is sufficient demand and more profit in EVs why would they bother with PHEVs?

I suspect that the reason for many PHEVs is to avoid fines for exceeding emissions targets or the cost of buying in carbon credits. Most PHEVs are essentially ICE vehicles with the electric element added on - ZF make transmissions incorporating an electric motor & there's enough room under the boot floor for a small battery pack so it's not a major engineering exercise. The electric efficiency of most PHEVs in miles/kWh is pretty poor compared to BEVs which suggests that the overall vehicle design isn't efficient enough to be a compelling BEV. The only PHEV technology that makes any sense to me is a predominantly BEV with an optional range extender ICE - although the case for that is diminishing as battery technology progresses.

But Kia’s E-Niro is a very efficient BEV. I agree that a range extender is a better option and (other than cost, perhaps) I don’t know why BMW dropped the i3Rex. I quite like the look of the Mercedes C300e PHEV with a 60+ mile electric range. Would work for me as most of my trips are under 60 miles. It’s actually cheaper than the C300d for the same model.

The C300e is a good example of a point I made earlier. A real world range of 60 miles (being generous) from a 25.4kWh battery is about 2.4 miles/kWh which is poor compared to a pure BEV. The extra weight of the battery & ancillaries makes it a heavy car so once the battery is depleted, it's not very economical running in ICE mode. Still, it's a better effort than the BMW 330e which has a paltry electric only range.

Petriix

I'm sure people will keep buying PHEVs, same as they'll keep buying unchargeable hybrids. But that's not because they're the best choice. There are a tiny set of circumstances where a hybrid would make sense. For the vast majority of people a full BEV would be fine, for almost all of the rest, a reasonably economical diesel would work out cheaper (to buy and run). It's mostly ignorance and prejudice which keeps people buying hybrids.

JKenH

Petriix said:

I'm sure people will keep buying PHEVs, same as they'll keep buying unchargeable hybrids. But that's not because they're the best choice. There are a tiny set of circumstances where a hybrid would make sense. For the vast majority of people a full BEV would be fine, for almost all of the rest, a reasonably economical diesel would work out cheaper (to buy and run). It's mostly ignorance and prejudice which keeps people buying hybrids.

Would you like to elaborate?

michaels

Grumpy_chap said:

So, speaking with my older brother today as he has had his BMW i3 for a little while now (~3 months). 

He's really pleased with it and found the range to be further than he had anticipated - that might have been helped by warmer weather.  They actually drove up to ours in the EV today, which they would not do initially.

So far he has only charged away from home paid once and that was just to test the fast charger actually worked with the car after taking delivery.  He does make use of free charging at supermarkets etc.  All other charging is done at home on a regular tarrif.  He worked out that "fuel" for the EV costs 7 pence per mile while the ICE is now 17 pence per mile.

Brother and SiL did have two ICEs, they exchanged one for the EV, which they both drive out of choice and kept the large ICE for longer journeys or where the EV is too small.  Having built confidence in the EV range, they find the ICE is doing less than 300 mile per month.

My younger brother was very interested (as he has the Toyota BZ4X on order for sometime next year).

It still seems to me, rather disappointingly, that the choice of EV's vehicle types remains rather constrained. 

• Plenty of "odd" vehicles - Leaf / i3.
• Plenty of large SUV vehicles.  Very expensive.
• Some smaller vehicles - Corsa / 208.
• Some budget "normal" vehicles - MG5.
• Not so many family / premium compact exec options (Mondeo / A4 / XE) - the nearest are probably the TM3, BMW i4, E-Class.

I'd like to switch to EV at next choice but since COVID I do a much lower mileage and the price premium is high for an EV, plus constrained to new / nearly new only for EV as older cars don't exist yet.  If I change cars, I'd want something that is in the Mondeo / A4 / ZE type category.  This week, I saw a 2019, 25k mile XE Portfolio at £17k. 
I'm not immediately in the market for a change of car, but it will be a big ask to select an EV - the i4 or TM3 equivalents are going to be near £50k.  That probably does work and quite an easy sell versus a new XE, but a harder push against the used options.  At least £25k extra outlay, 10 pence per mile fuel cost difference (using my brother's figures), 250k miles to "break-even".
I accept that there is an unfairness in comparing a used ICE versus new EV, but that is the reality.

Is the current leaf any more or less odd than a focus or golf?

shinytop

Petriix said:

I'm sure people will keep buying PHEVs, same as they'll keep buying unchargeable hybrids. But that's not because they're the best choice. There are a tiny set of circumstances where a hybrid would make sense. For the vast majority of people a full BEV would be fine, for almost all of the rest, a reasonably economical diesel would work out cheaper (to buy and run). It's mostly ignorance and prejudice which keeps people buying hybrids.

I don't think having the need to travel 250-300 miles regularly without recharging is a tiny set of circumstances.  A reasonably priced PHEV with a decent range would suit a lot of people and not everyone wants to run an old diesel.  

For the vast majority of people it's not prejudice or ignorance that's stopping them buying a full BEV.

Martyn1981

shinytop said:

Petriix said:

I'm sure people will keep buying PHEVs, same as they'll keep buying unchargeable hybrids. But that's not because they're the best choice. There are a tiny set of circumstances where a hybrid would make sense. For the vast majority of people a full BEV would be fine, for almost all of the rest, a reasonably economical diesel would work out cheaper (to buy and run). It's mostly ignorance and prejudice which keeps people buying hybrids.

I don't think having the need to travel 250-300 miles regularly without recharging is a tiny set of circumstances.  A reasonably priced PHEV with a decent range would suit a lot of people and not everyone wants to run an old diesel.  

For the vast majority of people it's not prejudice or ignorance that's stopping them buying a full BEV.

It's more about where they now sit. Going back batteries were very expensive, so a short range PHEV, say just 12 miles like the early Prius PHEV made sense. But as the range of the PHEV's grew to say 30-60 miles, their cost grew a bit, closing the gap with the BEV's.

So comparing the cost of an ICE with a PHEV, the PHEV is more expensive, and probably has a higher TCO (total cost of ownership) than the ICE. That's still going to be OK with folk who can use it largely in BEV mode, but do enough miles to save money. But the economics aren't really that good now.

They got a lot of support, all over the World going back, but this has fallen now. Also some weren't used very well, such as by company drivers who got them due to the tax breaks, but never bothered to charge them.

It's not that PHEV's didn't fill a role, it's that they may not have much of a role today. Save money and buy an ICE, or pay a bit more and get all the benefits of a BEV. The PHEV kind of falls between the two now as a compromise. Plus as more and more BEV's sell, and their percentage of sales grow, it helps to build the confidence of potential buyers. Plus as BEV range increases, the need for an ICE in your car, adding cost, weight and complexity, diminishes. So fear of a BEV, helps PHEV's, but that fear is diminishing.

Maybe PHEV sales will grow. I may be wrong and ICE sales will transition via PHEV's, but the numbers look like the PHEV market stalls at a certain % point in each country (some like Sweden, really high around 25%, the UK around 7%) whilst shifting steadily to BEV's.

Exiled_Tyke

shinytop said:

Petriix said:

I'm sure people will keep buying PHEVs, same as they'll keep buying unchargeable hybrids. But that's not because they're the best choice. There are a tiny set of circumstances where a hybrid would make sense. For the vast majority of people a full BEV would be fine, for almost all of the rest, a reasonably economical diesel would work out cheaper (to buy and run). It's mostly ignorance and prejudice which keeps people buying hybrids.

I don't think having the need to travel 250-300 miles regularly without recharging is a tiny set of circumstances.  A reasonably priced PHEV with a decent range would suit a lot of people and not everyone wants to run an old diesel.  

For the vast majority of people it's not prejudice or ignorance that's stopping them buying a full BEV.

My Dad had a diesel VW Passat. He changed it for the PHEV version.  Most of his journeys are local and he regularly goes a couple of months without using any petrol.  However a few times a year my parents will take longer trips across the country. The PHEV is perfect for their needs and was the most cost effective solution when they bought the car. 

1961Nick

Martyn1981 said:

So comparing the cost of an ICE with a PHEV, the PHEV is more expensive, and probably has a higher TCO (total cost of ownership) than the ICE. That's still going to be OK with folk who can use it largely in BEV mode, but do enough miles to save money. But the economics aren't really that good now.

They got a lot of support, all over the World going back, but this has fallen now. Also some weren't used very well, such as by company drivers who got them due to the tax breaks, but never bothered to charge them.

Everyone I know with a plug in hybrid has opted back into the CC scheme & taken advantage of the 'discounted' BIK incentive. Many reps don't bother plugging in & instead use the engine to keep the battery topped up. That way they get to do personal miles for free & don't have to pay to put domestic electricity into the vehicle. The BMW 330e has been a popular choice from my rather limited survey & seems to have replaced the 320d.

I did read an article some time ago saying that quite a lot of leased hybrids were returned after 3 years with the charging cables still sealed in the original bag.

Petriix

Exiled_Tyke said:

shinytop said:

Petriix said:

I'm sure people will keep buying PHEVs, same as they'll keep buying unchargeable hybrids. But that's not because they're the best choice. There are a tiny set of circumstances where a hybrid would make sense. For the vast majority of people a full BEV would be fine, for almost all of the rest, a reasonably economical diesel would work out cheaper (to buy and run). It's mostly ignorance and prejudice which keeps people buying hybrids.

I don't think having the need to travel 250-300 miles regularly without recharging is a tiny set of circumstances.  A reasonably priced PHEV with a decent range would suit a lot of people and not everyone wants to run an old diesel.  

For the vast majority of people it's not prejudice or ignorance that's stopping them buying a full BEV.

My Dad had a diesel VW Passat. He changed it for the PHEV version.  Most of his journeys are local and he regularly goes a couple of months without using any petrol.  However a few times a year my parents will take longer trips across the country. The PHEV is perfect for their needs and was the most cost effective solution when they bought the car. 

See, this a perfect example. They've bought a car for 'a few times a year' rather than to suit their everyday needs. The current Passat PHEV starts at £41k so let's assume they could have bought a Kona, E-Niro or similar with 250 miles of range for similar money. Or they could have spent a lot less on something like an MG5 or ZS etc.

For the inconvenience of rapid charging once on each > 250 mile trip they could have avoided buying any fossil fuels at all. It would be vastly more efficient and much cheaper to maintain a BEV too. I suspect that they waste far more time driving to the petrol station and filling up than they would actually spend charging away from home. 

Petriix

shinytop said:

Petriix said:

I'm sure people will keep buying PHEVs, same as they'll keep buying unchargeable hybrids. But that's not because they're the best choice. There are a tiny set of circumstances where a hybrid would make sense. For the vast majority of people a full BEV would be fine, for almost all of the rest, a reasonably economical diesel would work out cheaper (to buy and run). It's mostly ignorance and prejudice which keeps people buying hybrids.

I don't think having the need to travel 250-300 miles regularly without recharging is a tiny set of circumstances.  A reasonably priced PHEV with a decent range would suit a lot of people and not everyone wants to run an old diesel.  

For the vast majority of people it's not prejudice or ignorance that's stopping them buying a full BEV.

Actually it objectively is a tiny minority of car journeys. That's the ignorance part: most people virtually never drive more than 100 miles in a day, let alone the 300 miles which would make it challenging in most modern BEVs. What you call 'the vast majority' are actually a very small minority.

And, if you really are travelling 250-300 miles regularly, there are EVs perfectly suited to that distance which would save you an enormous amount on fuel. On long journeys PHEVs don't work out any more efficient than a diesel car.