EV Discussion thread

Petriix

Exiled_Tyke said:

Martyn1981 said:

Exiled_Tyke said:

shinytop said:

Petriix said:

I'm sure people will keep buying PHEVs, same as they'll keep buying unchargeable hybrids. But that's not because they're the best choice. There are a tiny set of circumstances where a hybrid would make sense. For the vast majority of people a full BEV would be fine, for almost all of the rest, a reasonably economical diesel would work out cheaper (to buy and run). It's mostly ignorance and prejudice which keeps people buying hybrids.

I don't think having the need to travel 250-300 miles regularly without recharging is a tiny set of circumstances.  A reasonably priced PHEV with a decent range would suit a lot of people and not everyone wants to run an old diesel.  

For the vast majority of people it's not prejudice or ignorance that's stopping them buying a full BEV.

My Dad had a diesel VW Passat. He changed it for the PHEV version.  Most of his journeys are local and he regularly goes a couple of months without using any petrol.  However a few times a year my parents will take longer trips across the country. The PHEV is perfect for their needs and was the most cost effective solution when they bought the car. 

Hiya ET. Out of interest, how have they found the experience? I'm assuming they enjoy the EV side of it if they are minimising petrol use. They must be charging regularly and conscientiously too.

So .......... has this built up their confidence and enjoyment about electric driving? Do you think they would go PHEV again in the future, or leaning towards BEV now? Just a shame supply can't meet demand, and the impact that's having on price.


Linked to this, I've been thinking about Petrix's comment, which shocked me at first (no offence Petrix) with the words 'prejudice or ignorance', but then I thought about it for a while, and it's true (at the lighter end of their meaning), that we are all naturally prejudiced against change, it's hard wired into us, as change could be dangerous. Also most people (nearly wrote 'vast majority' but times are changing) will be ignorant about BEV's, we're all ignorant about new stuff till we learn, and I think most people have no idea just how easy and fun BEV's are to drive.

I suspect that supply limitations of BEV's will be a problem long after prejudice and ignorance have been minimised.

The PHEV was a good solution for them for a number of reasons: 

1. The Passat had been researched to meet their needs to the move to the PHEV was an easy decision 
2. Availability of suitable second hand vehicles in the right price range. More PHEVs than BEVs at the time. 
3. I'm not sure it is prejudice or ignorance but I think there are valid psychological reasons for moving away from FF s by stages including wanting to see success of the technology and definitely fear of charging availability especially on their trips to far flung corners of the countryside away from large towns and motorways.  (And some foreign travel to come too). 

The question of whether to now go to BEV is an interesting one and I shall ask them.  They are fully supportive and indeed excited by my intention to go to a BEV but I'm not sure they would do it themselves.  I think things will change a lot in the next few years and if my BEV experience is successful it may well sway them. 

But all in all I think your last point on overall availability and price is probably the most relevant.   We've discussed a number of reasons why the move away from ICE may not be smooth.  I don't think we need to punish those who can't afford to change their petrol or diesel car, nor criticise those who move via a PHEV (a decision I may yet make myself).  If technology, governments, the motor industry and charging networks make the right decisions we'll move in the right direction (pardon the pun) without having to lay blame on consumers making the decisions that are right for them. 

I think these are all understandable reasons, but I think there is a degree of 'ignorance' in sticking with what you know. My conjecture (based on a degree of assumption) is that it would have worked out cheaper and less polluting for them to buy a cheap second hand Leaf or Zoe as their local runaround and kept the old Passat for the occasional long journey (or just hired something similar when required). Or they could likely have picked up a new MG5 for the same price or cheaper than the second hand Passat PHEV (depending on which iteration they got and when they bought).

Martyn1981

I don't know if this is interesting or not, but having mentioned the UK market and PHEV's, I saw that the results for France (in June) has come out, and the graph of sales over the last 2.5yrs shows how demand for PHEV's and BEV's grows, then the PHEV segment start to level off, at a healthy percentage, whilst BEV's continue to grow.

Every market has its quirks, and France's HEV sales % is twice that of the UK.

But, monthly figures can move around quite a lot, so pinch of salt needed.

France Plugin EV Growth Slows, But Still Rocking

June’s overall plugin share of 19.8% comprised 12.8% full electrics (BEVs), and 7.0% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). A year ago, their respective shares were 10.5% and 8.3%.

1961Nick

Martyn1981 said:

I don't know if this is interesting or not, but having mentioned the UK market and PHEV's, I saw that the results for France (in June) has come out, and the graph of sales over the last 2.5yrs shows how demand for PHEV's and BEV's grows, then the PHEV segment start to level off, at a healthy percentage, whilst BEV's continue to grow.

Every market has its quirks, and France's HEV sales % is twice that of the UK.

But, monthly figures can move around quite a lot, so pinch of salt needed.

France Plugin EV Growth Slows, But Still Rocking

June’s overall plugin share of 19.8% comprised 12.8% full electrics (BEVs), and 7.0% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). A year ago, their respective shares were 10.5% and 8.3%.

Tesla's Berlin plant should soon start to boost the number of European BEV registrations judging by the huge waiting list.

JKenH

Martyn1981 said:

I don't know if this is interesting or not, but having mentioned the UK market and PHEV's, I saw that the results for France (in June) has come out, and the graph of sales over the last 2.5yrs shows how demand for PHEV's and BEV's grows, then the PHEV segment start to level off, at a healthy percentage, whilst BEV's continue to grow.

Every market has its quirks, and France's HEV sales % is twice that of the UK.

But, monthly figures can move around quite a lot, so pinch of salt needed.

France Plugin EV Growth Slows, But Still Rocking

June’s overall plugin share of 19.8% comprised 12.8% full electrics (BEVs), and 7.0% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). A year ago, their respective shares were 10.5% and 8.3%.

The linked article put a decent gloss on what wasn’t actually a great month for French plug-in sales. Yes, the % share was up slightly compared to a year ago but it doesn’t mention that total plug in sales were actually down. 

Working back from the total auto sales in June of 171085 being down 14% would project 198936 sales last year of which plug-ins took 18.7% or a total of 37201. Plug in in sales this year at 33875 were actually down by 3326. Even had Tesla matched its March deliveries the plug in total would have been only 35714, so still down by 1487 compared to last year. 

This most probably is due to supply chain disruption but I had seen reports that manufacturers were directing their limited resources to EVs at the expense of ICEs so the y-o-y % share growth reported might have been expected to be higher. 

It’s just one month so don’t read too much into the figures but a little more transparency would have been welcome in the reporting rather than a headline which (to me) implied sales were still growing (but at a slower rate). Maybe others will read it differently. 

JKenH

1961Nick said:

Martyn1981 said:

I don't know if this is interesting or not, but having mentioned the UK market and PHEV's, I saw that the results for France (in June) has come out, and the graph of sales over the last 2.5yrs shows how demand for PHEV's and BEV's grows, then the PHEV segment start to level off, at a healthy percentage, whilst BEV's continue to grow.

Every market has its quirks, and France's HEV sales % is twice that of the UK.

But, monthly figures can move around quite a lot, so pinch of salt needed.

France Plugin EV Growth Slows, But Still Rocking

June’s overall plugin share of 19.8% comprised 12.8% full electrics (BEVs), and 7.0% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). A year ago, their respective shares were 10.5% and 8.3%.

Tesla's Berlin plant should soon start to boost the number of European BEV registrations judging by the huge waiting list.

It may be a while yet before Berlin makes much impression on the waiting list.

Tesla Closes Its German Money Furnace: Giga Gruenheide Needs Corrections, More Workers

https://www.autoevolution.com/news/tesla-closes-its-german-money-furnace-giga-gruenheide-needs-corrections-more-workers-192730.html

Exiled_Tyke

Petriix said

I think these are all understandable reasons, but I think there is a degree of 'ignorance' in sticking with what you know. My conjecture (based on a degree of assumption) is that it would have worked out cheaper and less polluting for them to buy a cheap second hand Leaf or Zoe as their local runaround and kept the old Passat for the occasional long journey (or just hired something similar when required). Or they could likely have picked up a new MG5 for the same price or cheaper than the second hand Passat PHEV (depending on which iteration they got and when they bought).

A myriad of reasons why this doesn't stack up including: 

1. Space to keep an extra vehicle
2. Insurance on a second car
3.  I can't see your proposal is significantly less polluting given the PHEV is only using petrol on long journeys and still benefits from the electric benefits. (For the record he reckons he gets similar mpg from the PHEV on a long run as he did from the diesel). 
4. MG5 didn't meet the brief.  

If you knew my father you definitely wouldn't refer to him as ignorant - even in the literal sense!!!!! 

Martyn1981

1961Nick said:

Martyn1981 said:

I don't know if this is interesting or not, but having mentioned the UK market and PHEV's, I saw that the results for France (in June) has come out, and the graph of sales over the last 2.5yrs shows how demand for PHEV's and BEV's grows, then the PHEV segment start to level off, at a healthy percentage, whilst BEV's continue to grow.

Every market has its quirks, and France's HEV sales % is twice that of the UK.

But, monthly figures can move around quite a lot, so pinch of salt needed.

France Plugin EV Growth Slows, But Still Rocking

June’s overall plugin share of 19.8% comprised 12.8% full electrics (BEVs), and 7.0% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). A year ago, their respective shares were 10.5% and 8.3%.

Tesla's Berlin plant should soon start to boost the number of European BEV registrations judging by the huge waiting list.

Yes, ramping up nice. Will also help to flatten out the delivery spikes in the last month of each quarter, which actually show up in the graphs for most countries, like France above. Though the UK will still remain spikey due to RHD models coming from China,* assuming that they stick with their policy of trying to sell most cars within the quarter they build them.

*Presumably, Berlin can't justify a line for us, or regularly altering a line just for us.

JKenH

EV salary sacrifice can halve costs of PCH, says Fleet Alliance 

I was struggling to reconcile the two paragraphs below. There certainly are huge savings but even so £681 is a massive amount per month to be shelling out when “British household incomes are under cost pressure like never before.” If you can afford the payments though you can save £2k a year on fuel. Having been on holiday in Dorset for 10 days I have noticed just how quiet a lot of attractions are. It seems no one can afford to go out anyway (except for pensioners of course who single-handedly seem to be keeping the tourist industry afloat). If you are now working from home and can’t afford to go out (so not able to save as much on fuel) do you need to be spending a lot of money leasing an electric car? With mortgage rates going up as well is the car industry (as well as the aspirational householder) about to get a reality check?

The full monthly price under the salary sacrifice arrangement was £681, including all servicing, maintenance – such as new tyres – and insurance. The price also took into account savings in Income Tax and National Insurance achieved from the reduction in gross pay before tax, while there is a negligible Benefit-in-Kind tax charge to pay, currently 2% for zero emission vehicles. 

And Bruce said there was little wonder the company was seeing such a huge interest in its salary sacrifice scheme when British household incomes are under cost pressures like never before while businesses are looking to cut their carbon footprint. 

https://fleetworld.co.uk/ev-salary-sacrifice-can-halve-costs-of-pch-says-fleet-alliance/

1961Nick

JKenH said:

1961Nick said:

Martyn1981 said:

I don't know if this is interesting or not, but having mentioned the UK market and PHEV's, I saw that the results for France (in June) has come out, and the graph of sales over the last 2.5yrs shows how demand for PHEV's and BEV's grows, then the PHEV segment start to level off, at a healthy percentage, whilst BEV's continue to grow.

Every market has its quirks, and France's HEV sales % is twice that of the UK.

But, monthly figures can move around quite a lot, so pinch of salt needed.

France Plugin EV Growth Slows, But Still Rocking

June’s overall plugin share of 19.8% comprised 12.8% full electrics (BEVs), and 7.0% plugin hybrids (PHEVs). A year ago, their respective shares were 10.5% and 8.3%.

Tesla's Berlin plant should soon start to boost the number of European BEV registrations judging by the huge waiting list.

It may be a while yet before Berlin makes much impression on the waiting list.

Tesla Closes Its German Money Furnace: Giga Gruenheide Needs Corrections, More Workers

https://www.autoevolution.com/news/tesla-closes-its-german-money-furnace-giga-gruenheide-needs-corrections-more-workers-192730.html

Don't panic... stop/start is not out of the ordinary during a ramp up. Even Shanghai paused production at the end of June to make adjustments.

Petriix

Exiled_Tyke said:

Petriix said

I think these are all understandable reasons, but I think there is a degree of 'ignorance' in sticking with what you know. My conjecture (based on a degree of assumption) is that it would have worked out cheaper and less polluting for them to buy a cheap second hand Leaf or Zoe as their local runaround and kept the old Passat for the occasional long journey (or just hired something similar when required). Or they could likely have picked up a new MG5 for the same price or cheaper than the second hand Passat PHEV (depending on which iteration they got and when they bought).

A myriad of reasons why this doesn't stack up including: 

1. Space to keep an extra vehicle
2. Insurance on a second car
3.  I can't see your proposal is significantly less polluting given the PHEV is only using petrol on long journeys and still benefits from the electric benefits. (For the record he reckons he gets similar mpg from the PHEV on a long run as he did from the diesel). 
4. MG5 didn't meet the brief.  

If you knew my father you definitely wouldn't refer to him as ignorant - even in the literal sense!!!!! 

Fair enough re 1 & 2, but PHEVs simply aren't as efficient as BEVs on battery only with many requiring the engine to run for cabin heating or driving at higher speeds etc. Even if it's run on electric only most of the time, it will use 50% more energy (with all the associated costs and pollution) than an equivalent EV. Assuming that PHEVs are just as efficient as BEVs is yet more of that (literal) ignorance.

To be fair, I'd rather have a fully electric Passat estate than an MG5. But I doubt one will be available for under £40k when they eventually make it, while the MG5 was under £19k including discounts at launch.