EV Discussion thread

Martyn1981

The point you make about hybrids is really interesting and important. Just to meet rising regulations most of the ICE sales will need to be mild hybrids or HEV's. PHEV's are not cheap, I can't see prices now, but the Hyundai 38kWh BEV (~190 miles range) was only slightly more expensive than the PHEV version. In fact before the £1,500 PiG was removed, the BEV was cheaper.

VW have suggested that building new BEV factories may be cheaper than converting existing ones. So a huge amount of investment at a point in time when revenue and profits could fall.

Ford have said the Mustang Mach e is no longer profitable. Renault said a few years ago that the Zoe was profitable on an OPEX basis, a specific that raises a red flag.

And not only is Tesla profitable, but when they sell an extra BEV, their sales increase. But for legacy auto, they are typically displacing an ICE sale. I did think the TM2 had been dropped (a while back) but typical Elon ambiguity seemed to be talking about production plans then, given the shortage of batts as demand for the 3 & Y were rising so fast. Looking at the TM3 with ~60kWh battery, the TM2 being smaller and lighter, and with say a 40kWh battery pack (so lighter again), I'd guess at a range rating of 200 - 250 miles, and a reliable 200 miles city driving.

TBH I think the picture will change (or perhaps come in to focus) significantly by 2025 as the transition gains speed.

JKenH

Presumably companies build PHEVs for a reason. If there is sufficient demand and more profit in EVs why would they bother with PHEVs?

1961Nick

JKenH said:

Presumably companies build PHEVs for a reason. If there is sufficient demand and more profit in EVs why would they bother with PHEVs?

I suspect that the reason for many PHEVs is to avoid fines for exceeding emissions targets or the cost of buying in carbon credits. Most PHEVs are essentially ICE vehicles with the electric element added on - ZF make transmissions incorporating an electric motor & there's enough room under the boot floor for a small battery pack so it's not a major engineering exercise. The electric efficiency of most PHEVs in miles/kWh is pretty poor compared to BEVs which suggests that the overall vehicle design isn't efficient enough to be a compelling BEV. The only PHEV technology that makes any sense to me is a predominantly BEV with an optional range extender ICE - although the case for that is diminishing as battery technology progresses.

JKenH

1961Nick said:

JKenH said:

Presumably companies build PHEVs for a reason. If there is sufficient demand and more profit in EVs why would they bother with PHEVs?

I suspect that the reason for many PHEVs is to avoid fines for exceeding emissions targets or the cost of buying in carbon credits. Most PHEVs are essentially ICE vehicles with the electric element added on - ZF make transmissions incorporating an electric motor & there's enough room under the boot floor for a small battery pack so it's not a major engineering exercise. The electric efficiency of most PHEVs in miles/kWh is pretty poor compared to BEVs which suggests that the overall vehicle design isn't efficient enough to be a compelling BEV. The only PHEV technology that makes any sense to me is a predominantly BEV with an optional range extender ICE - although the case for that is diminishing as battery technology progresses.

But Kia’s E-Niro is a very efficient BEV. I agree that a range extender is a better option and (other than cost, perhaps) I don’t know why BMW dropped the i3Rex. I quite like the look of the Mercedes C300e PHEV with a 60+ mile electric range. Would work for me as most of my trips are under 60 miles. It’s actually cheaper than the C300d for the same model.

QrizB

JKenH said:

Presumably companies build PHEVs for a reason. If there is sufficient demand and more profit in EVs why would they bother with PHEVs?

Companies build PHEVs because they sell, and PHEVs sell because customers want them. Why do they want them? If I was to guess, I'd suggest a combination of:

• Range anxiety vs. BEVs
  
• Tax advantages and feelgood vs. ICEs.
  

markin

Mini From* £ 31,000, Wasn't the Model 3 meant to be closer to that, and the car everyone can afford like the Ford Model T

Martyn1981

QrizB said:

JKenH said:

Presumably companies build PHEVs for a reason. If there is sufficient demand and more profit in EVs why would they bother with PHEVs?

Companies build PHEVs because they sell, and PHEVs sell because customers want them. Why do they want them? If I was to guess, I'd suggest a combination of:

• Range anxiety vs. BEVs
  
• Tax advantages and feelgood vs. ICEs.
  

Definitely. And both the range anxiety and gov incentives (for PHEV's) are reducing in most markets.

They've done a good job as a bridging tool, adding the advantages of a BEV to an ICE, but now they are bringing the negatives of an ICE to a BEV as we transition. Not just the emissions, but also the longevity issues, as their economic lifespan will really be dependant on the ICE side mechanicals.

The US studies on total cost of ownership tend to show PHEV's costing more to run than ICEV's, whilst BEV's cost less, sort of a 'best of both Worlds, worst of both Worlds' situation.

The UK PHEV sales seem to have stalled now, which makes sense, we'll see the ICE market shrinking, with some of it going to the MHEV/HEV market (for fleet fuel compliance), and some to the BEV market. [Just to be clear, the total ICE + MHEV + HEV will steadily shrink, whilst the BEV total rises. I suspect the PHEV share will stay relatively flat, though it does now seem to have started shrinking, but early days, and crazy times.]

shinytop

JKenH said:

1961Nick said:

JKenH said:

Presumably companies build PHEVs for a reason. If there is sufficient demand and more profit in EVs why would they bother with PHEVs?

I suspect that the reason for many PHEVs is to avoid fines for exceeding emissions targets or the cost of buying in carbon credits. Most PHEVs are essentially ICE vehicles with the electric element added on - ZF make transmissions incorporating an electric motor & there's enough room under the boot floor for a small battery pack so it's not a major engineering exercise. The electric efficiency of most PHEVs in miles/kWh is pretty poor compared to BEVs which suggests that the overall vehicle design isn't efficient enough to be a compelling BEV. The only PHEV technology that makes any sense to me is a predominantly BEV with an optional range extender ICE - although the case for that is diminishing as battery technology progresses.

But Kia’s E-Niro is a very efficient BEV. I agree that a range extender is a better option and (other than cost, perhaps) I don’t know why BMW dropped the i3Rex. I quite like the look of the Mercedes C300e PHEV with a 60+ mile electric range. Would work for me as most of my trips are under 60 miles. It’s actually cheaper than the C300d for the same model.

If there were a £30k PHEV that did a real 60 miles electric it would suit my needs very well.  I'd charge at home at night, use electric maybe half of the time and use petrol for the journeys a reasonably priced EV won't manage.  That sounds more sensible to me than the often suggested option of a cheap Leaf as a second car.  

As it is I'll probably be using petrol all of the time until public charging improves because I'm never going to spend the cost of a 300 mile EV on a car.

Grumpy_chap

So, speaking with my older brother today as he has had his BMW i3 for a little while now (~3 months). 

He's really pleased with it and found the range to be further than he had anticipated - that might have been helped by warmer weather.  They actually drove up to ours in the EV today, which they would not do initially.

So far he has only charged away from home paid once and that was just to test the fast charger actually worked with the car after taking delivery.  He does make use of free charging at supermarkets etc.  All other charging is done at home on a regular tarrif.  He worked out that "fuel" for the EV costs 7 pence per mile while the ICE is now 17 pence per mile.

Brother and SiL did have two ICEs, they exchanged one for the EV, which they both drive out of choice and kept the large ICE for longer journeys or where the EV is too small.  Having built confidence in the EV range, they find the ICE is doing less than 300 mile per month.

My younger brother was very interested (as he has the Toyota BZ4X on order for sometime next year).

It still seems to me, rather disappointingly, that the choice of EV's vehicle types remains rather constrained. 

• Plenty of "odd" vehicles - Leaf / i3.
• Plenty of large SUV vehicles.  Very expensive.
• Some smaller vehicles - Corsa / 208.
• Some budget "normal" vehicles - MG5.
• Not so many family / premium compact exec options (Mondeo / A4 / XE) - the nearest are probably the TM3, BMW i4, E-Class.

I'd like to switch to EV at next choice but since COVID I do a much lower mileage and the price premium is high for an EV, plus constrained to new / nearly new only for EV as older cars don't exist yet.  If I change cars, I'd want something that is in the Mondeo / A4 / ZE type category.  This week, I saw a 2019, 25k mile XE Portfolio at £17k. 
I'm not immediately in the market for a change of car, but it will be a big ask to select an EV - the i4 or TM3 equivalents are going to be near £50k.  That probably does work and quite an easy sell versus a new XE, but a harder push against the used options.  At least £25k extra outlay, 10 pence per mile fuel cost difference (using my brother's figures), 250k miles to "break-even".
I accept that there is an unfairness in comparing a used ICE versus new EV, but that is the reality.

JKenH

Martyn1981 said:

QrizB said:

JKenH said:

Presumably companies build PHEVs for a reason. If there is sufficient demand and more profit in EVs why would they bother with PHEVs?

Companies build PHEVs because they sell, and PHEVs sell because customers want them. Why do they want them? If I was to guess, I'd suggest a combination of:

• Range anxiety vs. BEVs
  
• Tax advantages and feelgood vs. ICEs.
  

Definitely. And both the range anxiety and gov incentives (for PHEV's) are reducing in most markets.

They've done a good job as a bridging tool, adding the advantages of a BEV to an ICE, but now they are bringing the negatives of an ICE to a BEV as we transition. Not just the emissions, but also the longevity issues, as their economic lifespan will really be dependant on the ICE side mechanicals.

The US studies on total cost of ownership tend to show PHEV's costing more to run than ICEV's, whilst BEV's cost less, sort of a 'best of both Worlds, worst of both Worlds' situation.

The UK PHEV sales seem to have stalled now, which makes sense, we'll see the ICE market shrinking, with some of it going to the MHEV/HEV market (for fleet fuel compliance), and some to the BEV market. [Just to be clear, the total ICE + MHEV + HEV will steadily shrink, whilst the BEV total rises. I suspect the PHEV share will stay relatively flat, though it does now seem to have started shrinking, but early days, and crazy times.]

Just a personal view but I think PHEVs may still be more attractive to some people than BEVs: not everyone but some. They won’t appeal perhaps to those who have access to salary sacrifice schemes or are company car drivers as they don’t offer the tax advantages. PHEVs over £40k list price also pay an extra £355 road tax for 5 years on top of the £155  for sub £40k cars. PHEVs generally are a bit cheaper than a BEV, around £4K in the case of the Kia e-Niro 64kWh which likely would be the model someone a bit undecided might go for. However that differential would usually be made up in use by savings on fuel. On paper the BEV makes much more financial sense.

So why would anyone consider a PHEV instead of a BEV? Obviously not for financial reasons, although if you choose a sub £40k car the tax is only £155pa. If like me you have solar panels you will do your best to run purely on electricity and top up regularly and cover most of your miles at similar cost to running a BEV. When you are on a longer run you will have to buy petrol at around 20p/mile. The BEV will only cost you around 12p/mile at rapid chargers and you will pay for less miles as your BEV will go much further. In fact for most journeys of 250 miles you probably won’t need to top up at all.

It can only therefore be for convenience/piece of mind you would go for a PHEV ahead of a BEV. You might want to go green but perhaps don’t have access to home charging yet do have convenient fast charging locally, but not guaranteed.  Yesterday we went to Tesco Extra in Scunthorpe and for the first time I can recall all 4 fast charging bays were in use. Not a problem for me as I can charge at home or a PHEV driver but if you are a BEV driver without home charging it might be. 

Now roll forward to 2030 when a new ICE car is no longer an option and the PHEV may become the default choice for those who don’t have home charging. In fact some people without home charging might just buy a PHEV and continue to use it like an ICE car. From 2030 to 2035 there may be some people who just don’t want a BEV and are forced into PHEV cars. We won’t know until nearer the time how significant a portion of the new car buying public that is. (Perhaps those not wanting a BEV will  just buy a new ICE car in 2029 and the Japanese manufacturers being the only ones still producing them will have a field day.)

You may be concerned about the charging network. I am but I put up with it because most of my charging is at home. Without that facility it could be a real worry for some. I generally don’t suffer from range anxiety but because of past experiences (which others fortunately haven’t shared) I do have charger anxiety. Those of a less robust constitution may just not be prepared to risk it (whether such anxiety is justified or not). 

Some people just want to get from A to B without having to stop particularly if you have a young family on board. (My son always visits us in his Astra rather than his Leaf when he has the kids on board even though I have done the same trip in his car in cold January weather. The inconvenience to the family just wouldn’t be worth it if he had to divert/stop for a charge.) 

I know one should take a break but it would be nice to be able to take it where you want to. If you use the motorway network I would say your chances of finding an available working charger are probably less than 50%. You plan your coffee/toilet stop based around needing a charge and then find there is no charger free or if there is it isn’t working. The wife and kids are already out of the car and on their way to the services building before you find the charger isn’t working with your car. The toilet/refreshment stop has been planned and anticipated - do you really want to tell everybody to get back in the car and drive another 25 miles to the next MSA? Do you want to have to wait for an available charger to become free? Do you want to have to leave the motorway and go find another rapid charger at some facility that does do coffee/have toilets but not necessarily where you would choose to stop? These are all inconveniences, perhaps not major, but to some, sufficient irritation to resist buying a BEV. 

I can understand why to some these irritations are not sufficient to deter them from buying a BEV and indeed to place such irritations ahead of the financial benefits of owning a BEV is illogical. But for others (like me) spending £5 on a couple of coffees at an MSA is illogical when one could take a flask. We all have different priorities and all make different choices based on our priorities. The fact that car sales are spread over so many car manufacturers and models is illogical when some are patently inferior to others in most reviewers’ estimation but is an indication that we don’t always appear to use logic when buying cars. (One of my priorities when buying my last ICE car was that it had to have Apple CarPlay - I ruled out several models that might otherwise have been perfectly suited to me. I also ruled out the 40kWh Zoe when I bought my Leaf for the same reason. It seemed logical to me but not to others). 

I do believe therefore that people will continue to buy ICE cars and PHEVs for some time to come even though to others it may defy logic. As I said, that’s just a personal opinion based on my own experiences.