The big fat Electric Vehicle bashing thread.

ComicGeek

Grumpy_chap said:

Herzlos said:

Will a £30k EV be worth more than a £20k ICE in 3 years time? It almost certainly will be, and will almost certainly retain a higher percentage value because it'll be more desirable.

This is absolutely true at the moment.  It may not hold for that long (obviously, any comment on the future is speculation).  My reasons for thinking it may not hold:

1. Price of new EV's will fall.  Many people currently have new cars at around the £35k mark (SUV / compact exec) on PCP at around £400 monthly.  EV equivalent is current £10k premium and £150 extra monthly.  That premium has to fall out.
2. Price of new ICE's will fall (probably even faster) as manufacturers dump the residual stocks of whatever they have at rock-bottom prices.  In 2025, it will be tempting for quite a large number of buyers to go for a run-out ICE.  Maybe it will be a bit later than 2025, but it will happen at some time.
3. Overall availability of used EV's will start to increase.
4. Overall availability of new cars will increase so that offers will be more readily available - depressing used prices accordingly.

(The alternative to 3 & 4 is that we remain in crisis for all that period and I am sure we all certainly hope that is not the case.)

I completely agree with all of this. I bought my EV (cash, not PCP) to run until it's not economic to repair, and don't assume that it will continue to hold its value. Manufacturers will have to produce EVs to suit all new car budget levels - but at the moment you can't blame them for targeting the higher end when it's mainly higher end company cars that are attractive, and car production is limited.

I also believe that technology will improve once the numbers of EVs start to really ramp up - those with early EV versions may find they lose value more quickly as a result. 

Herzlos

I largely agree, BUT I think EV's are going to hold their price relative to ICE vehicles. I mean, it's a potentially hard to justify an extra £10k over the ICE, but the closer that gaps the easier it'll be to justify the EV and the more demand there will be which will push the prices back up. As such, I don't think the EV variant of something will ever drop to any less than maybe a £3k premium over the equivalent petrol (assuming an average annual saving of £1k and 3 years of ownership).

On the other hand, I suspect that some ICE cars will hold their value a lot better once the supply starts to creep up, for those people who can't or won't buy an EV. I think it'll probably split between the utilitarian stuff (like the Citroen Berlingo*) and the luxury stuff (like an M-Sport BMW).

*It'll be interesting to see what the minicab fleets do when they upgrade without a diesel Berlingo option here - will they go electric, will they just keep repairing them until they rust apart or will they move to something else like the Dacia Jogger?

troffasky

Grumpy_chap said:

Price of new ICE's will fall (probably even faster) as manufacturers dump the residual stocks of whatever they have at rock-bottom prices.  In 2025, it will be tempting for quite a large number of buyers to go for a run-out ICE.  Maybe it will be a bit later than 2025, but it will happen at some time.

Manufacturers can reasonably predict that the sales pipeline is coming to an end. In some cases they even have dates set [by governments in power yesterday or today, not in the future, but I digress] more than a decade in advance. Any manufacturer with so much stock left they have to sell it off cheap is too stupid to deserve to be in business.

Bonniepurple

[Deleted User] said:

Herzlos said:

I'm not aware of a single EV user that'd want to go back to combustion.

I am - a colleague of mine owned a new Nissan Leaf 2016-2019 and replaced it with an Vx Insignia ICE which he hated and shortly after got a BMW M-sport ICE of some sort and loved it.

However that doesn't mean anything just like your comment - only 1.2% of drivers own an EV and they are all early adopters and keen to use the new tech so it isn't really a representative view either even if the majority of EV owners wouldn't go back to ICE.

Like I said, I'm not anti-EV, but I'm looking for more from EV's before converting for good just like my colleague was. I am keen for the pro-EV people to be a bit more direct about the short comings so they can actually be solved before the other 98.8% of drivers get an EV rather than just selling the positives.

I get the positives, nobody needs to sell them to me, I just don't like the negatives being swept under the carpet because nothing will improve if we tell ourselves EV are perfect.

Same applies to ICE's, the last 3 decades since I passed my test has seen a dramatic improvement, and comparing current ICE's to those of the past shows how much safety, comfort and drivability have improved. EV's need to go through the same evolution but much faster due to the deadlines that have been set.

This.  I’ve never really looked into an EV as the upfront cost is prohibitive for me, even for an entry level- and I need a decent sized vehicle (wheelchair user with 2 teenagers who can’t bear to be breathed on by each other!).  I can see me switching in the next 8-10 years, but right now I can’t.

what does annoy me is the evangelical zeal that some (not all!) EV users have.  They are certainly zero emissions at the end user (ie what would be the tailpipe if it existed), but how much environmental damage (river pollution, site pollution, generator use, waste products etc) is caused by producing the battery components?  How do we know that what companies are saying is actually the reality?  How does this compare to the modern day production of ICE vehicles?  Remember that comparatively recently we were told “petrol bad, diesel good”?  What happened is that people bought diesels when their journeys were unsuitable for them.

Petriix

I was waiting a long time for second hand EV prices to drop to sensible levels before I decided to buy new. I was originally looking at a 40kWh Leaf. They were ~ £21k pre-reg at the lowest point I saw (in 2018) and I was anticipating those hitting about £16k after 2 years.

They never seemed to be below £19k while I was in the market for one. There's only a handful under £18k now; mostly cat S. The second hand EV market was buoyant before the effects of Covid and the chip shortage hit the rest of the second hand car world.

I'm still struggling to imagine which are going to be the affordable second hand EVs in the next 5 years. Demand will only go up, but supply will be limited to the number of new ones they sell now. There isn't a decent value new EV available currently in comparison to prices from 2020/21.

ComicGeek

Bonniepurple said:

[Deleted User] said:

Herzlos said:

I'm not aware of a single EV user that'd want to go back to combustion.

I am - a colleague of mine owned a new Nissan Leaf 2016-2019 and replaced it with an Vx Insignia ICE which he hated and shortly after got a BMW M-sport ICE of some sort and loved it.

However that doesn't mean anything just like your comment - only 1.2% of drivers own an EV and they are all early adopters and keen to use the new tech so it isn't really a representative view either even if the majority of EV owners wouldn't go back to ICE.

Like I said, I'm not anti-EV, but I'm looking for more from EV's before converting for good just like my colleague was. I am keen for the pro-EV people to be a bit more direct about the short comings so they can actually be solved before the other 98.8% of drivers get an EV rather than just selling the positives.

I get the positives, nobody needs to sell them to me, I just don't like the negatives being swept under the carpet because nothing will improve if we tell ourselves EV are perfect.

Same applies to ICE's, the last 3 decades since I passed my test has seen a dramatic improvement, and comparing current ICE's to those of the past shows how much safety, comfort and drivability have improved. EV's need to go through the same evolution but much faster due to the deadlines that have been set.

what does annoy me is the evangelical zeal that some (not all!) EV users have.  They are certainly zero emissions at the end user (ie what would be the tailpipe if it existed), but how much environmental damage (river pollution, site pollution, generator use, waste products etc) is caused by producing the battery components?  How do we know that what companies are saying is actually the reality?  How does this compare to the modern day production of ICE vehicles?  Remember that comparatively recently we were told “petrol bad, diesel good”?  What happened is that people bought diesels when their journeys were unsuitable for them.

I agree that there's no environmental justification for everyone to ditch their existing cars tomorrow (with all that embodied carbon already inside)
and then use lots of raw materials to build all new EVs. We should be having those difficult discussions about resources. 

The best approach is always to reduce usage, and then work out the least worst way to deliver the usage that is considered essential.

I remember talking with a CEO of a major company about 15 years ago about how much carbon (and money!) they could save by turning off their office lights at night time. He looked blankly for a minute, and then said that he didn't want to do that and wanted to plant some trees somewhere in the world to offset it instead - he thought that would get better press coverage.

The worst thing we ever introduced was the offsetting approach where people could pay off their guilt into an environmental scheme that probably did more damage than not doing anything.

Martyn1981

Grumpy_chap said:

Martyn1981 said:

Something like this would be great for city use, and parking, but would probably fail the new 'French 480 mile' test!

Starts at €12.5k for 6kWh / 56 mile range, and will go upto 14kWh / 142 miles. 0-30mph 5s, so no confidence issues at T-junctions and roundabouts. 4hrs to charge from a normal 13A socket.

Microlino Pioneer Edition Priced At $13,000

Micro Mobility is a Swiss company that specializes in moving people from place to place in small, energy efficient packages that use a minimum of precious resources. One of its products is the Microlino, a modern day iteration of the original Iso Isetta that first went into production in Italy in 1953. 

Microlino web-site

Looks like a good idea and would certainly have some market.  The top-speed is perhaps lower than ideal.

Do you under-estimate the ingenuity of our Government to outlaw a good idea such as this?  Like e-scooters?

Which makes me think - I wonder how much this product would be competing with e-scooters and electric mopeds?

Brilliant for parking, and being electric, going to be very nippy. Plus it's so damn cute ...... but legislation!!!!

I was also wondering about the top speed, as it might raise issues for dual carraigeways, like mopeds etc, is that right?

Does the UK have a classification for smaller, lower powered cars, especially around crash testing? The US have 'NEV's' (neighbourhood electric vehicles), if you've ever seen golf carts and the like driving around on residential roads and wondered if it's legal (yes it is). And some European countries have 'quadricycles' which I assume this would be, but not sure what the weight limit is.

I'm also a big fan of the FUV from Arcimoto, and its many variants, but that would come under trike, and is a lot more powerful. Starts around $18k, but no European sales yet.

JKenH

I am new to this thread and haven’t read all the preceding 37 pages so I apologise if this point has already been made. Background: My wife owns an 11 year old Kia Picanto which does less than 2000 miles a year on local trips. I also have a diesel motorhome for holidays and race meetings. I own a Nissan Leaf 40kWh and am quite happy with it other than for a few instances when problems with chargers have caused delays/detours/additional stress which I wouldn’t have with an ICE car. The benefits of virtually free charging at home out weigh the drawbacks but that doesn’t mean there aren’t any.

Now to my point - spontaneity. Last week we were staying on a campsite in the motorhome 133 miles from home and were due to travel back first thing the following day. We had a leisurely evening meal in the motorhome and were deciding what to do in the evening. It was a lovely evening, but already having been on a long walk earlier, the preferred option was to lounge around in the van reading. The weather forecast for the next day looked good so on impulse we decided just to drive home in the evening. My diesel motorhome has a range of 600 miles and there was plenty of fuel in the tank so we just set off home driving at 70mph all the way without stoping. The fuel consumption was 29mpg for the trip - it hardly varies no matter how I drive it. 

Because I have a vehicle with a 600 mile range that I can top up with fuel in 5-10 minutes we can make spur of the minute decisions to undertake a reasonably long journey without any planning being necessary. Let’s just substitute a car for the motorhome to make it easier to relate to. If the car was ICE it wouldn’t matter whether the tank was full or not, it would only add another 5-10 minutes to the journey to fill up if empty and we could have been just as spontaneous. With an EV with a decent sized battery it would have needed to have been almost fully charged before we would contemplate a journey like that. (The Leaf even with a full battery wouldn’t have made it at 70mph). But being on a sightseeing holiday in the UK we would have been using the car, as we did the motorhome, that day so it would have needed charging. That would have been sufficient to put us off making the trip. Yes we could have stopped and had a break en route but we wouldn’t want to and we wouldn’t want the stress of whether we could find a vacant working charger on the motorway.

In an ICE vehicle you have more freedom to just jump in the car and go, no planning required.

On the same theme my wife recounted to me a story of a friend who has an electric car which she is able to charge at work. Just as she arrived at her work she got a call from school asking if she could come straight away and pick her child up as he was ill. Her battery was virtually empty (as she had planned to charge at work during the day) and she didn’t have enough charge to get to the school, let alone get home from there. This is the very scenario that my wife worries about if we just had an EV. Just occasionally she has to shoot off at very short notice and drive 100 miles to look after the grandkids. She refuses to have an EV for that reason even though she enjoys driving the Leaf. 

It is those unexpected journeys that can catch one out as charging an EV isn’t instantaneous and it is not good policy to continually charge to 100% on the off chance that your plans might change.

As I said, I am content with my Leaf and really appreciate the EV driving experience but as this thread is intended to reflect both the ups and downs of EV ownership I just thought I would throw this in. 

[Deleted User]

JKenH said:

I am new to this thread and haven’t read all the preceding 37 pages so I apologise if this point has already been made. Background: My wife owns an 11 year old Kia Picanto which does less than 2000 miles a year on local trips. I also have a diesel motorhome for holidays and race meetings. I own a Nissan Leaf 40kWh and am quite happy with it other than for a few instances when problems with chargers have caused delays/detours/additional stress which I wouldn’t have with an ICE car. The benefits of virtually free charging at home out weigh the drawbacks but that doesn’t mean there aren’t any.

Now to my point - spontaneity. Last week we were staying on a campsite in the motorhome 133 miles from home and were due to travel back first thing the following day. We had a leisurely evening meal in the motorhome and were deciding what to do in the evening. It was a lovely evening, but already having been on a long walk earlier, the preferred option was to lounge around in the van reading. The weather forecast for the next day looked good so on impulse we decided just to drive home in the evening. My diesel motorhome has a range of 600 miles and there was plenty of fuel in the tank so we just set off home driving at 70mph all the way without stoping. The fuel consumption was 29mpg for the trip - it hardly varies no matter how I drive it. 

Because I have a vehicle with a 600 mile range that I can top up with fuel in 5-10 minutes we can make spur of the minute decisions to undertake a reasonably long journey without any planning being necessary. Let’s just substitute a car for the motorhome to make it easier to relate to. If the car was ICE it wouldn’t matter whether the tank was full or not, it would only add another 5-10 minutes to the journey to fill up if empty and we could have been just as spontaneous. With an EV with a decent sized battery it would have needed to have been almost fully charged before we would contemplate a journey like that. (The Leaf even with a full battery wouldn’t have made it at 70mph). But being on a sightseeing holiday in the UK we would have been using the car, as we did the motorhome, that day so it would have needed charging. That would have been sufficient to put us off making the trip. Yes we could have stopped and had a break en route but we wouldn’t want to and we wouldn’t want the stress of whether we could find a vacant working charger on the motorway.

In an ICE vehicle you have more freedom to just jump in the car and go, no planning required.

On the same theme my wife recounted to me a story of a friend who has an electric car which she is able to charge at work. Just as she arrived at her work she got a call from school asking if she could come straight away and pick her child up as he was ill. Her battery was virtually empty (as she had planned to charge at work during the day) and she didn’t have enough charge to get to the school, let alone get home from there. This is the very scenario that my wife worries about if we just had an EV. Just occasionally she has to shoot off at very short notice and drive 100 miles to look after the grandkids. She refuses to have an EV for that reason even though she enjoys driving the Leaf. 

It is those unexpected journeys that can catch one out as charging an EV isn’t instantaneous and it is not good policy to continually charge to 100% on the off chance that your plans might change.

As I said, I am content with my Leaf and really appreciate the EV driving experience but as this thread is intended to reflect both the ups and downs of EV ownership I just thought I would throw this in. 

For me if I was low and needed to do an unexpected journey, I’d just go and get a rapid charge. Our nearest one is 10 minutes away and would take less than 30 minutes to charge. So not really a problem for me. The grandkids can wait an extra half hour!

Herzlos

The unexpected journey was my bigger concern too. I was looking at an EV that could get me to work and back but little more, so if I had to go somewhere after work I'd need to charge up somewhere.

However, given decent fast charging infrastructure on route, and 7kw charging at home and 3 miles/kwh capacity means I'd add about 1 miles range every 2 minutes 12 seconds. So even if I got home empty, I'd only need to charge for 22 minutes to get 10 miles range which could hopefully get me to a fast charger in the direction I'm travelling. A 22kw fast charger would then give me 1 mile of range every 55 seconds, and so on.

Of course, as ranges improve and infrastructure improves, it becomes less of an issue. I'd be much more comfortable knowing I had enough range when returning home to get to the nearest hospital (15 miles), and pragmatically anything that can't wait 30 minutes is probably a 999 call.