Octopus Tracker

masonic

peter3hg said:

masonic said:

And so we move on to the news that an SVT "average bill" is set to fall by 12%. I do wish they'd just publish the maximum unit rates, but to me this seems not at all competitive with unhedged tariffs like Tracker and I'm left questioning why this is lower than the 15% prediction given where wholesale prices have gone recently. It seems to me wholesale prices would have to go up quite a bit for any of us Tracker customers to pay this much.

Ofgem publish the average rates here:
https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/energy-price-cap

Yes, found them and just edited them into my post, but crossed with yours and Archerychick. I've linked direct to the regional breakdown above. Some whopping standing charges for some!!

bristolleedsfan

masonic said:

And so we move on to the news that an SVT "average bill" is set to fall by 12%. Regional pricing data here. To me this seems not at all competitive with unhedged tariffs like Tracker and I'm left questioning why this is lower than the 15% prediction given where wholesale prices have gone recently. 

Cornwall Insight yesterday reduced prediction to 14%

"Based on updated information for the wholesale cost component of the price cap, specifically with regard to the CfD allowance, we have revised our April forecasts"

+ mentioned 

"We also note that there are decisions due from Ofgem on levelising cost differentials between payment types and amending cost allowances to accommodate a broadening of the Energy Intensive Industries exemption for low carbon support levies. Neither of these are in our forecasts"

https://twitter.com/CornwallInsight/status/1760648572255510709

masonic

Thanks, based on that it seems there are a couple of things expected to be loaded onto consumer tariffs in general that we are escaping for the time being.

Slinky

"We also note that there are decisions due from Ofgem on levelising cost differentials between payment types and amending cost allowances to accommodate a broadening of the Energy Intensive Industries exemption for low carbon support levies. Neither of these are in our forecasts"

Could someone please translate that into simple English for me?

peter3hg

Slinky said:

"We also note that there are decisions due from Ofgem on levelising cost differentials between payment types and amending cost allowances to accommodate a broadening of the Energy Intensive Industries exemption for low carbon support levies. Neither of these are in our forecasts"

Could someone please translate that into simple English for me?

For the first part they have now made the standing charge for prepayment meters the same as direct debit. This means that direct debit has had a bigger increase and prepayment a smaller increase to remove that differential.

For the second part the Energy Intensive Industries exemption is a rebate that certain manufacturing industries get from paying the green energy type levies. This is done to support UK manufacturing by lowering their energy costs. The government have broadened the range of industries that are eligible for the exemption, which means that the non-exempt industries and residential users have to pay a greater share of the levies.
Completely ridiculous decision by the government not to fund that change from general taxation.

Slinky

From BBC website:

Specifically, in England, Wales and Scotland:

• Gas prices will be capped at 6p per kilowatt hour (kWh), and electricity at 24p per kWh. That compares to the current gas price of 7.42p per kWh and 28.62p per kWh for electricity
• Households on prepayment meters will pay the same as those on direct debit
• Those who pay their bills every three months by cash or cheque will pay more
• Standing charges - a fixed daily charge covering the costs of connecting to a supply - have risen to 60p a day for electricity and 31p a day for gas, although they vary by region

Think Martin Lewis is likely to blow a gasket over that one.

SAC2334

Archerychick said:

masonic said:

And so we move on to the news that an SVT "average bill" is set to fall by 12%. Regional pricing data here. To me this seems not at all competitive with unhedged tariffs like Tracker and I'm left questioning why this is lower than the 15% prediction given where wholesale prices have gone recently. It seems to me wholesale prices would have to go up quite a bit for any of us Tracker customers to pay this much.

All available here https://www.ofgem.gov.uk/publications/changes-energy-price-cap-between-1-april-30-june-2024

Cornwall Insight off quite a bit for Yorkshire region on gas as the drop is 18.23% . 7.35 pkwh down to 6.01 p/kwh .that is direct debit .
electric down 15.94% from 27.79 p/kwh to 23.36 p/kwh . single rate tariff on direct debit .

Prepayment meter  is the way to go for none Tracker users with gas dropping from 7.35 p/kwh down to 5.79 p /kwh  19.35% drop 
Electric prepay dropping down from 27.35 p/kwh to 22.58 p/kwh  a 17.44% drop    Yorkshire region. Standing charges coming down in line with credit meters .
That should get people on smart meters  asking suppliers to switch meters over to prepay mode 

t0rt0ise

With such wide regional variations averages mean nothing. I think they should use ranges instead. So the new direct debit electricity daily charge ranges from 40.79 pence to 71.20 pence. Just shows how unhelpful quoting averages is.

Telegraph_Sam

With all the statistics being quoted at present, can (most) Tracker (and Agile) users afford to take a "detached" view of the imminent changes? Based on the wholesale prices remaining at roughly present levels at least for the short to medium term, and the fluctuations in prices remaining in line with recent weeks.

la531983

A good chance that gas wholesale could close today at its lowest price since April 2021...