What will happen to ICE Car values now that EV's are getting closer.

Petriix

JamoLew said:

Petriix said:

JamoLew said:

Petriix said:

People do seem to believe what they want and use statements like "I'm entitled to my opinion" or similar when presented with inconvenient evidence to the contrary.

There obviously *is* a significant CO2 overhead to buying anything new rather than second hand. From my research, I'm convinced that after around 40,000 miles, the entire manufacturing and delivery carbon footprint of my MG5 will have been offset in comparison to continuing to run my old (very economical) diesel car. You could argue the toss over a few thousand miles either way depending on certain factors, but it's in that ballpark.

But that's only part of the story... To buy something second hand, someone had to buy it new. My diesel car was pretty much run into the ground with a significant number of components failing so was in need of replacement (or significant lifestyle changes). I have high hopes that my EV will have a long useful life as a car before the batteries are eventually repurposed or recycled.

Economically, switching to a new EV will cost a broadly similar amount to buying a second hand diesel costing £10,000 less over 8 years of ownership and the overall C02 emissions will be roughly half.

That's actually quite interesting - can you post the maths behind that please ?

Around £1000 a year on diesel (8,000 miles at 12.5p per mile) plus an average of £500 on servicing, MOT and maintenance, £140 on VED vs £125 on EV charging (1000kWh at 12.5p, 1000 free from solar and free public charging) plus maybe £30 on paid public charging, £200 on maintenance, £0 VED = £1285 saving per year = £10,280 saving over 8 years. The additional mortgage interest on the extra £10,000 will be about £750 in total, so maybe £9,500 would be a more fair comparison.

Of course that is ignoring any residual value which is likely to be significantly higher on the 8 year old EV than on an 11 year old diesel.

At higher mileage that would only look better, with business use or as a company car the tax benefits would also be significant. Anyone in or visiting London also benefits from reduced congestion charge etc.

Interesting - Thanks

EV probably does work out cheaper overall - although I suspect some of your figures are slightly inflated for Diesel e.g. VED of £140 I would say is quite high, My A4 is ~£40 if i recall and a diesel Golf can be as low as £0

£500 a year for maintainig,service and MOT for Diesel but only £200 for EV --- why £300 difference ?

Still cheaper for EV, but maybe not a much as stated - plus not factored in is the additional cost initially of EV over ICE.

I think savings can def be made, but EV doesn't for a variety of reasons make sense to a lot of people currently - certainly as initial cost, variety of choice and infrastructure improvements change then this will almost certainly shift in favour of EV (not that we have a choice as it's being forced on us )

Maintenance on an ICEV will always be higher than on an EV (unless something expensive blows, but on my MG5 the expensive bits are all covered by the 7 year warranty); there are simply many more moving parts: oil and filter changes, brakes (which the EV barely uses), clutch, exhausts, injectors, gearboxes, timing belts etc. That £500 figure is an average over my 11 years of owning a diesel car - some years it was just the MOT fee, but there were many expensive replacement parts and it was well out of warranty. You're right that some diesels are £30 or £0 VED, so maybe that's unfair.

I absolutely *have* factored in the additional cost of the EV; that's what's costing me an additional £750 in mortgage interest over 8 years as I pay it off, almost entirely with the money I've saved each month (on average). In practice, the depreciation on the new EV will be very high initially so most of the value will be lost over the first 4 years, after which point the savings will ramp up significantly. However, as I have financed the purchase at a very low interest rate, I can comfortably afford to spread the cost over a longer period; unless my circumstances change and I need to sell it sooner for some reason.

I understand that not everyone is in the position to be able to get one, but anyone thinking of spending ~ £12k+ on an ICEV, whose driving profile doesn't regularly require 200+ mile trips with no time to charge should seriously consider making the step up to an EV.

princeofpounds

Mickey666 said:

Wow - that sounds like some seriously good customer service and a great example of how things going wrong needn't be a disaster if the company really cares. 

AdrianC said:

On-site warranties are a fairly cheap add-on for a lot of PCs - certainly Dell.

It was Dell in fact. Product was shonky, and they didn't seem to know how their own mail-in repair service worked. But they didn't need beating over the head to get the technician coming out and he was quite skilled and efficient.

DrEskimo said:

There was a survey by the AA I think that suggested 60% of the UK have off-street parking. So whilst solar will be rare, the people relying on solely public chargers do not outnumber those with home charging anywhere close to 20:1.

Of course still a large issue, one that I have been navigating for the best part of 2-years now.

Fair enough - it wasn't meant to be a scientific estimate so I'm quite willing to accept correction.

However, entirely anecdotally, I feel that 60% is far too optimistic also, when I think about the vast swathes of our cities where on-street parking is the norm. Also, there's a big difference between off-road parking and suitable off-road parking. A London estate where I used to live was unusual in having off-road parking for every flat. But the freeholder can't even be organised to repair the exterior lighting, let alone charging points. Furthermore, trying convincing people without EVs to pay service charge to subsidise their neighbour's EV infrastructure...

prowla

I thought this was gong to be about In-Car Entertainment systems.

Grumpy_chap

Petriix said:

Many people do have home 3 phase charging and, although most EVs can't utilise more than 7.2kW, lots can charge at a 11kW or higher. 

With single-phase power, the supply limit is around the 7 - 7.5 kW so overnight charging can only achieve around 80kWh.

I would like to know how many people do have 3 phase home charging.  I would have though it would be a very small minority, but you suggest it is "many people that do have home 3 phase charging."  Do you have a source for that?

I am not even sure that 3 phase is available to all domestic properties in the nearby DNO infrastructure.

If someone had three-phase, why would they cap at 11 kW?  Surely, the power can then be around 21kW.  That would allow an over night charge (11 hours) above 200 kWh, so at 4 miles / kWh could mean a range of 800 miles, which is more than enough for anyone between eats and sleeps.

I still feel the route to longer range is not simply bigger batteries but greater efficiency - if the driver behind that is limits imposed by electric charging infrastructure, all well and good.

AdrianC

Grumpy_chap said:

I am not even sure that 3 phase is available to all domestic properties in the nearby DNO infrastructure.

It definitely isn't.

The transformer for our little cluster of eight houses plus one farm is just behind my garage.
It was replaced five years ago, when we were building the garage. The one that came out was the one that went in when AC came into the area in the 60s. It was single-phase, 300A (69kW @ 230v) rated, fused to 200A (46kW @ 230v). The replacement is the same rating and fusing. There are all three 11kV conductors coming to it, but only two are tapped.
Western Power told me they weren't upgrading anything because the upstream network was too borderline to risk it.

Herzlos

Grumpy_chap said:

Herzlos said:

With an EV charging from home/work you may never need to make a separate trip at all and the car will be fully fuelled ready to go. Within a few days of EV ownership it'll be as natural as charging up your phone (or watch, or cigarette or book). 

I really don't think that the high mileage business driver is going to be able to operate to that home charging profile. 

No, the high mileage business user won't fit the same profile as the average mileage home user.
That high mileage business user, however, is certainly going to have plenty to do in the periods whilst the car is charging (there's always paperwork and phone calls), or charge it whilst visiting customers (most of the customers I've visited recently have had a few charging bays). The minor inconvenience and routine change is compensated for by the huge reduction in cost.

Grumpy_chap

Perhaps people can install a 3-phase diesel generator in the garden from which they can charge the EV quickly.😉😱

Herzlos

Grumpy_chap said:

Even if battery capacities increase, so range increases, there will be a limiting factor in how long the charging needs to be.  For home charging 240V, single phase, we are constrained by the following:

• 60 Amp (occasionally 100 Amp) incoming fuse
• 32 Amp max single fuse
• Equates to around 7.5k max load
• Wall box rated around 7.2 kW.
• Largest battery around 80 kWh (Jaguar iPace, Kia eNIRO, Tesla 3)
• around 11 hours to charge from empty to full
• High mileage business user will do, say 6 am out the house, travel, work, return home, say 7 pm.  13 hours taken and only 11 hours before the next day rinse-repeat

Correct: on a domestic system you couldn't leave in the morning with a full battery, return home with it empty after a 13+ hour day and expect it to be fully charged in the morning. However that would involve a long commute (nearly 5 times the average) with no stop or charging anywhere during the day. What you could do (if allowed) was to leave work 30 minutes earlier and do some admin work from a charging station on the way home, get home with half a charge and then only need 5.5 hours to recharge.

Or you could pop out on your lunch break to connect the car to the charger at work. Or you could pay for 3-phase at home.

You're describing an absolutely inflexible worst case that doesn't apply to many people at all. For that exact case you'd probably be better off with a diesel hybrid so you can at least get 30ish miles of your 140 round trip on electric. But for almost everyone else, it's really not a problem.

It also only really applies *right now*. Give it another few years and there will almost certainly be more charging points in car parks.

Petriix

Grumpy_chap said:

Petriix said:

Many people do have home 3 phase charging and, although most EVs can't utilise more than 7.2kW, lots can charge at a 11kW or higher. 

With single-phase power, the supply limit is around the 7 - 7.5 kW so overnight charging can only achieve around 80kWh.

I would like to know how many people do have 3 phase home charging.  I would have though it would be a very small minority, but you suggest it is "many people that do have home 3 phase charging."  Do you have a source for that?

I am not even sure that 3 phase is available to all domestic properties in the nearby DNO infrastructure.

If someone had three-phase, why would they cap at 11 kW?  Surely, the power can then be around 21kW.  That would allow an over night charge (11 hours) above 200 kWh, so at 4 miles / kWh could mean a range of 800 miles, which is more than enough for anyone between eats and sleeps.

I still feel the route to longer range is not simply bigger batteries but greater efficiency - if the driver behind that is limits imposed by electric charging infrastructure, all well and good.

I should have said *some* people have 3 phase, I don't know how many but most new homes have three phases to the property although often it's only one that is connected to the supply. The charging rate from AC is limited by the vehicle's on board charger as this is what converts the power to DC to store in the battery. With a combination of a three phase EVSE and an EV that has the capacity to use all three phases, higher charging speeds can be achieved. The three phase option on the Peugeot e208 and e2008 is three 3.6kW chargers which is ~ 11kW, some Renault Zoes and Teslas can use 22kW, most EVs can't.

I do agree that greater range could be achieved with better efficiency rather than increased capacity. However, I think that the issue would be largely resolved by providing (slow) destination charging at workplaces; prioritising workplaces with the longest commutes. Unfortunately, with the obsession with SUV style vehicles, aerodynamic efficiency has been steadily decreasing in recent years. That's why I was particularly drawn to the MG5 with its much more streamlined shape.

Herzlos

Grumpy_chap said:

Perhaps people can install a 3-phase diesel generator in the garden from which they can charge the EV quickly.😉😱

You joke, but you could presumably use a storage battery which would allow you to charge the storage battery at a fairly slow 2-3kw AC during the day and charge your car from that at a much higher DC rate. You'd only need to get to about 10kw to do it in the time provided. For bonus points you could even charge that storage battery from a solar panel.