What will happen to ICE Car values now that EV's are getting closer.

BrookBond

Robbo66 said:

Bachelorplace said:

With the launch of the new VW ID3 today from £269 a month and a range of 350 miles - it begs the question - perhaps EV's will be here sooner than we think. 
With that said, what will happen to the predicted and actual value of petrol and desiel cars and what are your theories?
One theory is that they will retain a value and devalue as normal because people will always want combustion engines - certainly to a point. 
What will happen to all the trade ins - where will they go and who will buy them?
Is the infrastructure and charge times of the cars going to be ready in time for the ban?
Would you buy ICE again and what would be the last year you would buy an ICE car? 
Do you PCP and thus will continue to PCP until an EV version of your own car comes along at the end of your term?
If you buy and sell used will you change now, at the latest point or mid way between?

A claimed range of 350 mile and just like their ICE counterparts actually don't get anywhere near this plus the fact that I can fill my car in five minutes and even if you find a compatible fast charger its 30- 40 minutes and considerable more if have to queue.
I travel to Scotland on a regular basis, at least i did, my destination was a little over 400 miles so an EV still wouldn't be any good for me.

Similar situation but reversed, live in Scotland, post Covid office is Yorkshire, so 300 miles. 
Its already a 5 hr journey with a couple of 5 minute toilet breaks. Also have no confidence that you would plan a charge stop and be able to find a working charger. Also a chance that the office could shut and journey needed to the SW or SE, maybe less often but that would be 400 mile each way. 
My lease is about to be returned and will be car less for a month or more whilst new one is made but would consider cancelling and moving to EV if I thought that charging on 4 or 6 300 mile journies a month wouldn't become a complete ball ache and suffer 'range' or 'unavailable charger' anxiety. 

Flight3287462

Hyundai Kona EV set to stop sales in Korea following battery fires and recalls, report says

Local reports say Hyundai plans to yank the EV locally, but it'll continue on elsewhere in the world.

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/hyundai-kona-ev-battery-fires-recalls-korea-discontinued/

Gives you that nice warm feeling doesn't it.

BrookBond

Mickey666 said:

Robbo66 said:

Bachelorplace said:

With the launch of the new VW ID3 today from £269 a month and a range of 350 miles - it begs the question - perhaps EV's will be here sooner than we think. 
With that said, what will happen to the predicted and actual value of petrol and desiel cars and what are your theories?
One theory is that they will retain a value and devalue as normal because people will always want combustion engines - certainly to a point. 
What will happen to all the trade ins - where will they go and who will buy them?
Is the infrastructure and charge times of the cars going to be ready in time for the ban?
Would you buy ICE again and what would be the last year you would buy an ICE car? 
Do you PCP and thus will continue to PCP until an EV version of your own car comes along at the end of your term?
If you buy and sell used will you change now, at the latest point or mid way between?

A claimed range of 350 mile and just like their ICE counterparts actually don't get anywhere near this plus the fact that I can fill my car in five minutes and even if you find a compatible fast charger its 30- 40 minutes and considerable more if have to queue.
I travel to Scotland on a regular basis, at least i did, my destination was a little over 400 miles so an EV still wouldn't be any good for me.

People will adjust their behaviours, just as they've always done.

Where its due to employment its not always that easy. As I've just posted, I live in Scotland and travel to England where the company have three offices, 1 or more may shut post covid and travel to them less frequent.... But that could be a 400 mile journey. Most of the travel time is my own time, ie to the office is on a Sunday, I leave 2 or 3pm to head home on Thursday. I don't particularly want to eat even more into personal time. 
Yes, I could get a similar role in Scotland but would be a 70 mile commute each way. Plus it wouldn't pay nearly as much. 
But your sentiment of adjust I agree with insomuch as employers also need to adjust their policies and procedures to accommodate the push for EV. Office charge points, more flexible working, realism over range, car allowance value not covering cost of an EV etc. 

Grumpy_chap

dipsomaniac said:

tax payers cash given to rich ev buyers 

Assuming you refer to the £3k plug in grant, really, though, the tax-payers cash is not given to rich EV buyers but to the EV manufacturers.  

There was a recent thread where the costs of equivalent ICE and EV were compared.  It is difficult to do as there are not many direct comparisons, but one was:

• Tesla Model 3 start £42,500
• Audi A5 TDi start £40,500

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6229583/electric-car-costs-and-additional-costs/p1

The price of an EV, an ICE, or any other product is set by the market price.  The tax incentive ends up going to the manufacturer as the manufacturer could not simply charge a higher price for a long-term sustainable position.  There is an exception (which has applied to EV's) for creating a demand greater than supply which allowed the market price to be higher.  That element is now reducing.  Irrespective of grant or no grant, the vendor of an EV will sell for the highest price they can achieve and that price is market-price, heavily influenced by competition and alternative solutions.

DrEskimo

dipsomaniac said:

In 2003 I bought my most expensive car for £4500 - 1997 ford galaxy 2.8 v6.  I still have the car today and have done a average of 5k miles per year so I am sure my carbon foot print is lot smaller than many ev owners.  I love technology and all things mechanical so have nothing against ev cars.

How sure....?

Your Ford puts out 283g CO2/km [1]. So over the last 7yrs and 56k KM you've emitted about 16tonnes of CO2.

This doesn't account for the fact your real life emissions are likely to be higher (we don't.drive like the NEDC test) and the carbon cost of extracting, refining and transporting your fuel from ground to pump.

Adding conservative estimates of about 30% additional g/CO2 for the real world emissions[2], you get 367g CO2/Km, and that the refining process of fuel adds another 20%[3], you are now at 441g CO2/km.

So total is 3.5 tonnes per year, or just shy of 25 tonnes over your last 7yrs/35k miles.

A typical EV emits around 10-15tonnes of CO2 during manufacturing[4], and in current UK electricity mix, around 10-50g CO2/km[5], although this is heavily dependent on where you are, and when you charge. So an EV manufactured and driven for the same 35,000 miles as your Galaxy would emit between 10.2tonnes and 18tonnes.

Around 7-15tonnes less.

[1]https://www.autoevolution.com/cars/ford-galaxy-1995.html#aeng_ford-galaxy-1995-28i

[2] https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Impact-of-real-world-driving-emissions-for-UK-cars-and-vans.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiVr8ykkZHuAhUtxYUKHSbhAyoQFjAJegQIDRAB&usg=AOvVaw0HuAIf466vHzAoYNEQTeFM

[3] https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.transportenvironment.org/sites/te/files/downloads/T%26E%E2%80%99s%20EV%20life%20cycle%20analysis%20LCA.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjR5v74k5HuAhVBgRoKHbVZBgYQFjADegQICBAB&usg=AOvVaw2TS__0kFN0kEfRDYdz7AlN

[4] https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/EV-life-cycle-GHG_ICCT-Briefing_09022018_vF.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwj5npHzlJHuAhXJx4UKHY2hCLwQFjAKegQIHBAB&usg=AOvVaw1Lcr9hNTDpuSgIDf37897b

[5] https://carbonintensity.org.uk/

AdrianC

DrEskimo said:

dipsomaniac said:

In 2003 I bought my most expensive car for £4500
...
average of 5k miles per year

How sure....?
...
your last 7yrs/35k miles.

If we're going to be making mathematical points, then try 17yrs and 85k.

Of course, if he'd have been driving around for the last 17yrs in a 2003 EV... (Berlingo? G-Wiz?)
So how many additional cars are we factoring in the construction of?
Would they all be UK-assembled, or are we forgetting the global delivery logistics?

dipsomaniac

I am not going to spend 30 mins writing a post to baffle or try and justify my statement as too many 'unknowns' 'ifs' & '?'s' but on balance I believe I am right.

I am conscious of my carbon foot print and very content with the size of it despite not driving a ev

DrEskimo

dipsomaniac said:

I am not going to spend 30 mins writing a post to baffle or try and justify my statement as too many 'unknowns' 'ifs' & '?'s' but on balance I believe I am right.

You can believe what you like, but the overwhelming evidence suggests otherwise...

All too often people massively overestimate the EV manufacturing carbon footprint, and massively underestimate the carbon emissions for the use phase of an ICE.

dipsomaniac

DrEskimo said:

dipsomaniac said:

I am not going to spend 30 mins writing a post to baffle or try and justify my statement as too many 'unknowns' 'ifs' & '?'s' but on balance I believe I am right.

You can believe what you like, but the overwhelming evidence suggests otherwise...

All too often people massively overestimate the EV manufacturing carbon footprint, and massively underestimate the carbon emissions for the use phase of an ICE.

Out of interest how often do you replace your car and how many miles have you travelled in the last 17 years via petrol, diesel, jet or ev engine/motor. I need to add a trip to Canada (wedding) on top of my 85k and a few bus trips into town each year

DrEskimo

dipsomaniac said:

DrEskimo said:

dipsomaniac said:

I am not going to spend 30 mins writing a post to baffle or try and justify my statement as too many 'unknowns' 'ifs' & '?'s' but on balance I believe I am right.

You can believe what you like, but the overwhelming evidence suggests otherwise...

All too often people massively overestimate the EV manufacturing carbon footprint, and massively underestimate the carbon emissions for the use phase of an ICE.

Out of interest how often do you replace your car and how many miles have you travelled in the last 17 years via petrol, diesel, jet or ev engine/motor. I need to add a trip to Canada (wedding) on top of my 85k and a few bus trips into town each year

I think you've misinterpreted my post. I was only referring to the 'running an old car is less than CO2 of a new EV due to manufacturing' comment.

Getting a handle on our own personal lifetime emissions is another big massive minefield. I mean seeing as we both live in the UK I imagine our carbon footprint relative to the global average is obscene....I guess we all like to think we are below UK average but I don't know how true that would be.

But since you asked, I've had 5 cars in my 15 or so years driving. Rarely did more than about 8,000 miles per year and prior to getting my current EV I didn't own a car at all for about 18months (worked in London so commuted by train). Rarely travel/holiday (all our money tends to go towards inflated house prices in the South East...), with the only exception being a wedding to Australia 2yrs back. Prior to that I have done a handful of trips to Europe, mostly for conferences/business.