What will happen to ICE Car values now that EV's are getting closer.

parking_question_chap

Petriix said:

JamoLew said:

Petriix said:

People do seem to believe what they want and use statements like "I'm entitled to my opinion" or similar when presented with inconvenient evidence to the contrary.

There obviously *is* a significant CO2 overhead to buying anything new rather than second hand. From my research, I'm convinced that after around 40,000 miles, the entire manufacturing and delivery carbon footprint of my MG5 will have been offset in comparison to continuing to run my old (very economical) diesel car. You could argue the toss over a few thousand miles either way depending on certain factors, but it's in that ballpark.

But that's only part of the story... To buy something second hand, someone had to buy it new. My diesel car was pretty much run into the ground with a significant number of components failing so was in need of replacement (or significant lifestyle changes). I have high hopes that my EV will have a long useful life as a car before the batteries are eventually repurposed or recycled.

Economically, switching to a new EV will cost a broadly similar amount to buying a second hand diesel costing £10,000 less over 8 years of ownership and the overall C02 emissions will be roughly half.

That's actually quite interesting - can you post the maths behind that please ?

Around £1000 a year on diesel (8,000 miles at 12.5p per mile) plus an average of £500 on servicing, MOT and maintenance, £140 on VED vs £125 on EV charging (1000kWh at 12.5p, 1000 free from solar and free public charging) plus maybe £30 on paid public charging, £200 on maintenance, £0 VED = £1285 saving per year = £10,280 saving over 8 years. The additional mortgage interest on the extra £10,000 will be about £750 in total, so maybe £9,500 would be a more fair comparison.

Of course that is ignoring any residual value which is likely to be significantly higher on the 8 year old EV than on an 11 year old diesel.

At higher mileage that would only look better, with business use or as a company car the tax benefits would also be significant. Anyone in or visiting London also benefits from reduced congestion charge etc.

A few years down the line when the government are getting less tax (both fuel and VED) via ICE cars the balance will need to be found. Thinking EV cars will remain cheap in the long term is very naive.

DrEskimo

Grumpy_chap said:

Petriix said:

Around £1000 a year on diesel (8,000 miles at 12.5p per mile) plus an average of £500 on servicing, MOT and maintenance, £140 on VED vs £125 on EV charging (1000kWh at 12.5p, 1000 free from solar and free public charging) plus maybe £30 on paid public charging, £200 on maintenance, £0 VED = £1285 saving per year = £10,280 saving over 8 years. The additional mortgage interest on the extra £10,000 will be about £750 in total, so maybe £9,500 would be a more fair comparison.

At higher mileage that would only look better, with business use or as a company car the tax benefits would also be significant. Anyone in or visiting London also benefits from reduced congestion charge etc.

These kind of sums only work so well in favour of EV all the while that electricity is provided from domestic electricity rates (12.5 - 15 pence per kWh) and below (solar, Octopus energy, etc.)  As soon as electricity is paid for at commercial charge points, the pence per mile for energy EV is almost the same as pence per mile for ICE.

Typical charge points 30 pence / kWh
Typical 4 miles / kWh EV
Energy cost 7.5 pence / mile

Diesel £5.50 / gallon
Typical 55 mpg
Energy cost 10 pence / mile

So, yes, the EV is still cheaper energy cost pence per mile, but the running cost gain narrows rapidly if using public charge points.  I suspect a high mileage business user would be using the public charge points more than a "SDP & C" user.  

Should the time-cost of "refuelling" for the high mileage driver also be considered?

Rapid charging yes, but the high mileage business user would only use rapids for most of the EV miles if they don't have recharging at either home or work. So in a quick 'top up' scenario, rapid charging would still only be a small proportion of the overall charging.

As for me who uses slow public chargers, 7kW chargers only cost me £0.18/kWh (or for some reason I was only charged £0.12/kWh last weekend!).

JamoLew

Petriix said:

JamoLew said:

Petriix said:

People do seem to believe what they want and use statements like "I'm entitled to my opinion" or similar when presented with inconvenient evidence to the contrary.

There obviously *is* a significant CO2 overhead to buying anything new rather than second hand. From my research, I'm convinced that after around 40,000 miles, the entire manufacturing and delivery carbon footprint of my MG5 will have been offset in comparison to continuing to run my old (very economical) diesel car. You could argue the toss over a few thousand miles either way depending on certain factors, but it's in that ballpark.

But that's only part of the story... To buy something second hand, someone had to buy it new. My diesel car was pretty much run into the ground with a significant number of components failing so was in need of replacement (or significant lifestyle changes). I have high hopes that my EV will have a long useful life as a car before the batteries are eventually repurposed or recycled.

Economically, switching to a new EV will cost a broadly similar amount to buying a second hand diesel costing £10,000 less over 8 years of ownership and the overall C02 emissions will be roughly half.

That's actually quite interesting - can you post the maths behind that please ?

Around £1000 a year on diesel (8,000 miles at 12.5p per mile) plus an average of £500 on servicing, MOT and maintenance, £140 on VED vs £125 on EV charging (1000kWh at 12.5p, 1000 free from solar and free public charging) plus maybe £30 on paid public charging, £200 on maintenance, £0 VED = £1285 saving per year = £10,280 saving over 8 years. The additional mortgage interest on the extra £10,000 will be about £750 in total, so maybe £9,500 would be a more fair comparison.

Of course that is ignoring any residual value which is likely to be significantly higher on the 8 year old EV than on an 11 year old diesel.

At higher mileage that would only look better, with business use or as a company car the tax benefits would also be significant. Anyone in or visiting London also benefits from reduced congestion charge etc.

Interesting - Thanks

EV probably does work out cheaper overall - although I suspect some of your figures are slightly inflated for Diesel e.g. VED of £140 I would say is quite high, My A4 is ~£40 if i recall and a diesel Golf can be as low as £0

£500 a year for maintainig,service and MOT for Diesel but only £200 for EV --- why £300 difference ?

Still cheaper for EV, but maybe not a much as stated - plus not factored in is the additional cost initially of EV over ICE.

I think savings can def be made, but EV doesn't for a variety of reasons make sense to a lot of people currently - certainly as initial cost, variety of choice and infrastructure improvements change then this will almost certainly shift in favour of EV (not that we have a choice as it's being forced on us )

Petriix

I drove a Nissan Leaf 40 as a private hire vehicle for a year. In that time I spent nearly £500 on charging (checking my tax returns) to cover around 20,000 miles. That's 2.5p per mile.

I believe I could comfortably cover 150 miles per day in my MG5 with no charging away from home. I could even commute 150 miles each way if there was charging at work. If I needed to drive more than that then I would trade up for an ENiro or maybe an ID3 Tour or even a Model 3 LR.

If you're talking about a hypothetical scenario where the government suddenly start heavily taxing EVs, I hardly think people would accept that against a backdrop of catastrophic climate change and the current push to decarbonise transport. Maybe gradually after 2030 but certainly not in the next few years.

Herzlos

Grumpy_chap said:

Should the time-cost of "refuelling" for the high mileage driver also be considered?

It depends on how you regard the cost. Refueling an electric car may result in more elapsed time (especially at 3kw) but less actual human time. You park, plug it in and go away for some time, unplug it when you get back to the car and drive off. So assuming you can do something productive in that time, you spend less time recharging an EV than an ICE car, as you don't need to stand there the whole time.

Then there's the trips to the fuel station - you may be lucky and drive right past a petrol station that's empty, use the pay at pump system and have minimal interference to your day, but you still need to go to a petrol station every 400ish miles. With an EV charging from home/work you may never need to make a separate trip at all and the car will be fully fuelled ready to go. Within a few days of EV ownership it'll be as natural as charging up your phone (or watch, or cigarette or book).

Grumpy_chap

Petriix said:

I believe I could comfortably cover 150 miles per day in my MG5 with no charging away from home. 

The motoring press seem to report other EV's with similar "official" range to the MG5 as achieving just under 140 miles "real world".  A particular shame for me as, if we ever go back to "normal" my daily commute is 140 miles round trip and no suitable destination charging at work.  (There are 2 bays with a membership fee plus 32 pence per kWh plus penalty charge is the car is left once charged.  I understand why the penalty is there, but you can't keep leaving meetings to move the car.)

I do feel that the vendors for EVs need to be far more honest about range and what you'd actually get in the worst conditions.  The alternative is disappointment so that drivers go to EV and then revert back to ICE - similar to my foray to hybrid.

Herzlos said:

With an EV charging from home/work you may never need to make a separate trip at all and the car will be fully fuelled ready to go. Within a few days of EV ownership it'll be as natural as charging up your phone (or watch, or cigarette or book). 

I really don't think that the high mileage business driver is going to be able to operate to that home charging profile.  

Even if battery capacities increase, so range increases, there will be a limiting factor in how long the charging needs to be.  For home charging 240V, single phase, we are constrained by the following:

• 60 Amp (occasionally 100 Amp) incoming fuse
• 32 Amp max single fuse
• Equates to around 7.5k max load
• Wall box rated around 7.2 kW.
• Largest battery around 80 kWh (Jaguar iPace, Kia eNIRO, Tesla 3)
• around 11 hours to charge from empty to full
• High mileage business user will do, say 6 am out the house, travel, work, return home, say 7 pm.  13 hours taken and only 11 hours before the next day rinse-repeat

So, long range cannot simply be solved by ever higher battery capacity as the high-demand user simply does not have the time to charge within the constraints of the installed electricity infrastructure.  This constraint can only be overcome by installing 3 phase power supplies to domestic properties or improving the efficiency of EVs so that far more miles can be achieved pre kWh.

The first of these two solutions is a massive infrastructure project and there simply is not the funding for it.  

The second of these two solutions is not something I understand to be anywhere near.

I suppose there is a theoretical idea we could get the batteries so small and light that a 100 kWh battery is no larger or heavier than a AA cell and you just leave them on charge at home, then take as many as you need for the next day's journey and plug in as you go along.  This is likely fantasy for even longer than the other two solutions above.

Flight3287462

How are these EV converts on child labour in countries like the DRC and Madagascar, children who are exploited to so you can wax lyrical about allegedly saving a bit of CO2 (which is highly debatable)?

DrEskimo

Hunyani_Flight_825 said:

How are these EV converts on child labour in countries like the DRC and Madagascar, children who are exploited to so you can wax lyrical about allegedly saving a bit of CO2 (which is highly debatable)?

Raw material sourcing is an incredibly important issue, but the way you keep portraying it as though it's a 'EV only' problem is very ignorant. The same raw materials are used in thousands of other products and controlling the entire supply chain in those nations is a massively complex issue. For example rare earth minerals are used in catalytic converters and cobalt is used in petrol refinement.

Some of the most promising ways to mitigate their impact in EVs, which will undoubtedly dramatically increase their demand, is through substitution and recycling. Tesla are already moving towards cobalt free battery chemistry, and there are moves towards substitution of rare earth minerals in the permanent magnet motors, which is monopolised by China at around 80% of the global supply.

There are already companies that can recycle upwards of 90% of the EV material and there is no reason this cannot be 100%.

DrEskimo

Grumpy_chap said:

Petriix said:

I believe I could comfortably cover 150 miles per day in my MG5 with no charging away from home. 

The motoring press seem to report other EV's with similar "official" range to the MG5 as achieving just under 140 miles "real world".  A particular shame for me as, if we ever go back to "normal" my daily commute is 140 miles round trip and no suitable destination charging at work.  (There are 2 bays with a membership fee plus 32 pence per kWh plus penalty charge is the car is left once charged.  I understand why the penalty is there, but you can't keep leaving meetings to move the car.)

I do feel that the vendors for EVs need to be far more honest about range and what you'd actually get in the worst conditions.  The alternative is disappointment so that drivers go to EV and then revert back to ICE - similar to my foray to hybrid.

Herzlos said:

With an EV charging from home/work you may never need to make a separate trip at all and the car will be fully fuelled ready to go. Within a few days of EV ownership it'll be as natural as charging up your phone (or watch, or cigarette or book). 

I really don't think that the high mileage business driver is going to be able to operate to that home charging profile.  

Even if battery capacities increase, so range increases, there will be a limiting factor in how long the charging needs to be.  For home charging 240V, single phase, we are constrained by the following:

• 60 Amp (occasionally 100 Amp) incoming fuse
• 32 Amp max single fuse
• Equates to around 7.5k max load
• Wall box rated around 7.2 kW.
• Largest battery around 80 kWh (Jaguar iPace, Kia eNIRO, Tesla 3)
• around 11 hours to charge from empty to full
• High mileage business user will do, say 6 am out the house, travel, work, return home, say 7 pm.  13 hours taken and only 11 hours before the next day rinse-repeat

So, long range cannot simply be solved by ever higher battery capacity as the high-demand user simply does not have the time to charge within the constraints of the installed electricity infrastructure.  This constraint can only be overcome by installing 3 phase power supplies to domestic properties or improving the efficiency of EVs so that far more miles can be achieved pre kWh.

The first of these two solutions is a massive infrastructure project and there simply is not the funding for it.  

The second of these two solutions is not something I understand to be anywhere near.

I suppose there is a theoretical idea we could get the batteries so small and light that a 100 kWh battery is no larger or heavier than a AA cell and you just leave them on charge at home, then take as many as you need for the next day's journey and plug in as you go along.  This is likely fantasy for even longer than the other two solutions above.

Would have a search of Stageshoot. They are a member on here and SpeakEV and have owned a few EVs (i3, Zoe, Kona and now M3 I think) and they do over 40k miles a year with them.

Clearly manageable on what I feel is a extremely high mileage user.

https://www.speakev.com/threads/1-year-in-44k-miles-71k-km’s-how’s-the-kona-holding-up.143157/#post-2701392

Petriix

Grumpy_chap said:

Petriix said:

I believe I could comfortably cover 150 miles per day in my MG5 with no charging away from home. 

The motoring press seem to report other EV's with similar "official" range to the MG5 as achieving just under 140 miles "real world".  A particular shame for me as, if we ever go back to "normal" my daily commute is 140 miles round trip and no suitable destination charging at work.  (There are 2 bays with a membership fee plus 32 pence per kWh plus penalty charge is the car is left once charged.  I understand why the penalty is there, but you can't keep leaving meetings to move the car.)

I do feel that the vendors for EVs need to be far more honest about range and what you'd actually get in the worst conditions.  The alternative is disappointment so that drivers go to EV and then revert back to ICE - similar to my foray to hybrid.

Herzlos said:

With an EV charging from home/work you may never need to make a separate trip at all and the car will be fully fuelled ready to go. Within a few days of EV ownership it'll be as natural as charging up your phone (or watch, or cigarette or book). 

I really don't think that the high mileage business driver is going to be able to operate to that home charging profile.  

Even if battery capacities increase, so range increases, there will be a limiting factor in how long the charging needs to be.  For home charging 240V, single phase, we are constrained by the following:

• 60 Amp (occasionally 100 Amp) incoming fuse
• 32 Amp max single fuse
• Equates to around 7.5k max load
• Wall box rated around 7.2 kW.
• Largest battery around 80 kWh (Jaguar iPace, Kia eNIRO, Tesla 3)
• around 11 hours to charge from empty to full
• High mileage business user will do, say 6 am out the house, travel, work, return home, say 7 pm.  13 hours taken and only 11 hours before the next day rinse-repeat

So, long range cannot simply be solved by ever higher battery capacity as the high-demand user simply does not have the time to charge within the constraints of the installed electricity infrastructure.  This constraint can only be overcome by installing 3 phase power supplies to domestic properties or improving the efficiency of EVs so that far more miles can be achieved pre kWh.

The first of these two solutions is a massive infrastructure project and there simply is not the funding for it.  

The second of these two solutions is not something I understand to be anywhere near.

I suppose there is a theoretical idea we could get the batteries so small and light that a 100 kWh battery is no larger or heavier than a AA cell and you just leave them on charge at home, then take as many as you need for the next day's journey and plug in as you go along.  This is likely fantasy for even longer than the other two solutions above.

I am absolutely certain that the MG5 would cover 140 miles in all conditions; you may have to slow to 65 mph if there was a headwind on a cold and wet day. I have averaged 150 miles per full charge only doing short journeys from a cold start which include a disproportionately high amount of energy for heating, and at least 2 hours of running the heating whilst stationary. When I've preheated the car I've comfortably achieved 3.3 miles per kWh even at zero degrees which would equate to over 160 miles.

Many people do have home 3 phase charging and, although most EVs can't utilise more than 7.2kW, lots can charge at a 11kW or higher. Of course there are some (a vanishingly tiny number of) people who spend so much of the day driving that an EV wouldn't really work for them. Most people would be able to find a reasonable balance between driving and charging to cover their needs. People have to eat and sleep.