What will happen to ICE Car values now that EV's are getting closer.

Mickey666

Marvel1 said:

Mickey666 said:

colino said:

As every serious manufacturer is working on their electric versions, the supply isn't going to be a problem, quality will go up and Teslas will be seen to be the shoddy goods they really are.  The reason that engine driven cars are going to be around for a very long time is due to still pretty basic battery technology and the biggest issue - we don't have the infrastructure to charge them.  Scrappage of the dreaded dinosaur juice drinkers will eventually come to get us into them, but not in my lifetime   Don't go holding your breath, CAP will get around to guessing at residual values nearer the time.

When cars were first invented, not only did we not have the infrastructure to re-fuel them but we didn't even have a decent road network for them to drive on!  Successful new inventions end up creating their own ifrastructure.  It won't be too difficult to add fast charging points to existing filling stations and 15-20 minutes of fast-charging can already add well over 100 miles to an EV's range and I'd guess that's only going to improve.  The oft-quoted 'problem' of flat-owners not being able to charge their EVs at home, or home owners with no parking space having to run power cables across pavements is simply not going to happen - no one ever suggested we should fill up our ICE cars from petrol tanks at home did they?

There are many issues around EVs, but charging infrastructure is not going to be of them.

Still too long to wait.

Fair enough, if that's what you think.  But I fear you're going to be sorely disappointed if you're expecting 5 mins in a filling station to give you 500 miles of driving in an EV any time soon.  You'd best stick to an ICE for as long as you can.

Petriix

People do seem to believe what they want and use statements like "I'm entitled to my opinion" or similar when presented with inconvenient evidence to the contrary.

There obviously *is* a significant CO2 overhead to buying anything new rather than second hand. From my research, I'm convinced that after around 40,000 miles, the entire manufacturing and delivery carbon footprint of my MG5 will have been offset in comparison to continuing to run my old (very economical) diesel car. You could argue the toss over a few thousand miles either way depending on certain factors, but it's in that ballpark.

But that's only part of the story... To buy something second hand, someone had to buy it new. My diesel car was pretty much run into the ground with a significant number of components failing so was in need of replacement (or significant lifestyle changes). I have high hopes that my EV will have a long useful life as a car before the batteries are eventually repurposed or recycled.

Economically, switching to a new EV will cost a broadly similar amount to buying a second hand diesel costing £10,000 less over 8 years of ownership and the overall C02 emissions will be roughly half.

JamoLew

Petriix said:

People do seem to believe what they want and use statements like "I'm entitled to my opinion" or similar when presented with inconvenient evidence to the contrary.

There obviously *is* a significant CO2 overhead to buying anything new rather than second hand. From my research, I'm convinced that after around 40,000 miles, the entire manufacturing and delivery carbon footprint of my MG5 will have been offset in comparison to continuing to run my old (very economical) diesel car. You could argue the toss over a few thousand miles either way depending on certain factors, but it's in that ballpark.

But that's only part of the story... To buy something second hand, someone had to buy it new. My diesel car was pretty much run into the ground with a significant number of components failing so was in need of replacement (or significant lifestyle changes). I have high hopes that my EV will have a long useful life as a car before the batteries are eventually repurposed or recycled.

Economically, switching to a new EV will cost a broadly similar amount to buying a second hand diesel costing £10,000 less over 8 years of ownership and the overall C02 emissions will be roughly half.

That's actually quite interesting - can you post the maths behind that please ?

princeofpounds

Mickey666 said:

Bad luck with the CPU - were you overclocking it perhaps?

Thanks - thankfully it was only the cheap desktop in the home office. No, I wasn't overclocking - turns out the manufacturer had a bad batch of CPUs in that particular model which had a higher failure rate, so plenty of people were complaining on Google. On the plus side, they knew instantly what was wrong and how to fix it, and the irony is that we got the fix on the cheap despite being just out of warranty, because they messed up the process for mailing it in, couldn't figure out how to correct it in their system, so just ended up sending a technician with the part to the house.

Bachelorplace said:

princeofpounds said:

Worth reading twice this one! 
ON topic and clever.
Tracy Jobsworth - does she get particularly cranky on Tuesdays?

Cheers. What day doesn't she get cranky? It's practically in the job description.

Mickey666

princeofpounds said:

Mickey666 said:

Bad luck with the CPU - were you overclocking it perhaps?

Thanks - thankfully it was only the cheap desktop in the home office. No, I wasn't overclocking - turns out the manufacturer had a bad batch of CPUs in that particular model which had a higher failure rate, so plenty of people were complaining on Google. On the plus side, they knew instantly what was wrong and how to fix it, and the irony is that we got the fix on the cheap despite being just out of warranty, because they messed up the process for mailing it in, couldn't figure out how to correct it in their system, so just ended up sending a technician with the part to the house.

Wow - that sounds like some seriously good customer service and a great example of how things going wrong needn't be a disaster if the company really cares. 

DrEskimo

princeofpounds said:

I suspect the whole transition process is going to be relatively gradual. EVs will become increasingly cost-competitive and a decent segment of the market will be able to adopt them pretty quickly. Ranges will improve as cheaper batteries permit higher capacities for a given price and will probably prove to be much less of a problem than they currently are. If it was only about EV performance the tipping point would be sooner and quicker than we think.

However, infrastructure will prove a serious constraint beyond a certain point. For everyone with solar panels and a driveway, there are twenty people who have to park on a public street, can't run cables to their car and can't even guarantee where they will be parking each evening. There are others who don't want to wait for 30 minutes at services to charge - that time can cost almost as much as the fuel, for some people. Infrastructure will improve steadily as the end-market for its services develops, but don't forget it's often being run by Tracey Jobsworth from the local council, not Elon Musk, and it requires huge capital investment. Think about what it was like rolling out cable or fibre optic or 4G, or renewing the water mains in London etc. It takes time.

Plug-in hybrids probably have a bigger potential in the medium term. They have the capital cost disadvantage of requiring two motors, yes, but that's not as bad as it sounds given the ICE components are more simple than in a normal ICE car. But they are fully compatible with legacy infrastructure and possess the most important functional benefits of ICE and EV.

Given that fossil fuel distribution infrastructure will be sticking around for some time (for both hybrids and commercial vehicles), running an ICE vehicle won't be practically that different to now for quite some time. You may get some pressure from policy action etc. that accelerates depreciation, but if it gets too bad then a lot of vehicles will end up being shipped to markets that don't care so much and will still have a value. And the government will find itself losing popularity if they push too hard. If done well, a lot of the policy will be directed at changing decisions on purchases of new vehicles, not wiping out the capital people already have invested in existing ICE vehicles. That way, you can achieve a pretty complete transition without too much pain over the ~14 years it takes to renew the whole car parc.

I agree with all of this, bar the bit bolded.

There was a survey by the AA I think that suggested 60% of the UK have off-street parking. So whilst solar will be rare, the people relying on solely public chargers do not outnumber those with home charging anywhere close to 20:1.

Of course still a large issue, one that I have been navigating for the best part of 2-years now.

AdrianC

Mickey666 said:

princeofpounds said:

Mickey666 said:

Bad luck with the CPU - were you overclocking it perhaps?

Thanks - thankfully it was only the cheap desktop in the home office. No, I wasn't overclocking - turns out the manufacturer had a bad batch of CPUs in that particular model which had a higher failure rate, so plenty of people were complaining on Google. On the plus side, they knew instantly what was wrong and how to fix it, and the irony is that we got the fix on the cheap despite being just out of warranty, because they messed up the process for mailing it in, couldn't figure out how to correct it in their system, so just ended up sending a technician with the part to the house.

Wow - that sounds like some seriously good customer service and a great example of how things going wrong needn't be a disaster if the company really cares. 

On-site warranties are a fairly cheap add-on for a lot of PCs - certainly Dell.

Mickey666

True, but irrelevant.  Perhaps you'd call a paid-for-warranty repair 'seriously good customer service' but I'd call it business as usual.  In this case there was no warranty but the company STILL sent out someone to fix the problem,  I'd say that's worthy of note.

Petriix

JamoLew said:

Petriix said:

People do seem to believe what they want and use statements like "I'm entitled to my opinion" or similar when presented with inconvenient evidence to the contrary.

There obviously *is* a significant CO2 overhead to buying anything new rather than second hand. From my research, I'm convinced that after around 40,000 miles, the entire manufacturing and delivery carbon footprint of my MG5 will have been offset in comparison to continuing to run my old (very economical) diesel car. You could argue the toss over a few thousand miles either way depending on certain factors, but it's in that ballpark.

But that's only part of the story... To buy something second hand, someone had to buy it new. My diesel car was pretty much run into the ground with a significant number of components failing so was in need of replacement (or significant lifestyle changes). I have high hopes that my EV will have a long useful life as a car before the batteries are eventually repurposed or recycled.

Economically, switching to a new EV will cost a broadly similar amount to buying a second hand diesel costing £10,000 less over 8 years of ownership and the overall C02 emissions will be roughly half.

That's actually quite interesting - can you post the maths behind that please ?

Around £1000 a year on diesel (8,000 miles at 12.5p per mile) plus an average of £500 on servicing, MOT and maintenance, £140 on VED vs £125 on EV charging (1000kWh at 12.5p, 1000 free from solar and free public charging) plus maybe £30 on paid public charging, £200 on maintenance, £0 VED = £1285 saving per year = £10,280 saving over 8 years. The additional mortgage interest on the extra £10,000 will be about £750 in total, so maybe £9,500 would be a more fair comparison.

Of course that is ignoring any residual value which is likely to be significantly higher on the 8 year old EV than on an 11 year old diesel.

At higher mileage that would only look better, with business use or as a company car the tax benefits would also be significant. Anyone in or visiting London also benefits from reduced congestion charge etc.

Grumpy_chap

Petriix said:

Around £1000 a year on diesel (8,000 miles at 12.5p per mile) plus an average of £500 on servicing, MOT and maintenance, £140 on VED vs £125 on EV charging (1000kWh at 12.5p, 1000 free from solar and free public charging) plus maybe £30 on paid public charging, £200 on maintenance, £0 VED = £1285 saving per year = £10,280 saving over 8 years. The additional mortgage interest on the extra £10,000 will be about £750 in total, so maybe £9,500 would be a more fair comparison.

At higher mileage that would only look better, with business use or as a company car the tax benefits would also be significant. Anyone in or visiting London also benefits from reduced congestion charge etc.

These kind of sums only work so well in favour of EV all the while that electricity is provided from domestic electricity rates (12.5 - 15 pence per kWh) and below (solar, Octopus energy, etc.)  As soon as electricity is paid for at commercial charge points, the pence per mile for energy EV is almost the same as pence per mile for ICE.

Typical charge points 30 pence / kWh
Typical 4 miles / kWh EV
Energy cost 7.5 pence / mile

Diesel £5.50 / gallon
Typical 55 mpg
Energy cost 10 pence / mile

So, yes, the EV is still cheaper energy cost pence per mile, but the running cost gain narrows rapidly if using public charge points.  I suspect a high mileage business user would be using the public charge points more than a "SDP & C" user.  

Should the time-cost of "refuelling" for the high mileage driver also be considered?